La Liga Tips: Betis and Sevilla losses to open up top four race in Gameweek 17

“While Sevilla are yet to taste defeat at home in the league this season, November’s loss against Lille paved the way for a surprise Champions League group stage elimination.”

Celta to push towards mid-table

Celta Vigo v Espanyol
Friday, 20:00
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Espanyol continue to tick along at home while struggling on the road, with 20 of their 23 points coming at RCDE Stadium, and Infogol’s model doesn’t expect them to get a first away win of the campaign in Vigo. While Celta have struggled to pick up points at home, their xG numbers at Balaídos have been comparable to those of Friday’s opponents, and they’re expected to pull away from danger with a win.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.809/1

Rayo to hold firm at home

Rayo Vallecano v Alavés
Saturday, 13:00
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Rayo Vallecano suffered another away defeat last weekend but their home form remains healthy, and they will feel capable of remaining unbeaten at Vallecas when they welcome an Alavés side averaging just 1.17 xGF on the road. The hosts’ strength has been built on defensive solidity at home, and Infogol’s model gives them a slight edge in what doesn’t look like being a goal-fest.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.808/1 or 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Real Sociedad to recover from Betis shock

Real Sociedad v Villarreal
Saturday, 15:15
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If you looked at the xG totals alone, you might think Real Sociedad’s trip to Real Betis was a close-run thing, but the team from Seville hit four unanswered goals to leave La Real in danger of spending Christmas outside the top four. Imanol Alguacil’s side have been defensively stingy at Anoeta, though, and Infogol expects them to shut out a Villarreal side coming off successive wins at home and in Europe.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1

Barça to win final home game of 2021

Barcelona v Elche
Saturday, 17:30
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After seeing Sergio Agüero confirm his retirement, Barcelona know the size of their task this season. They have two games left this calendar year, including a midweek game in hand at Sevilla, and will at least be confident go getting points on the board against Elche in the first of those. Barça won the corresponding game 3-0 last season, and will be hopeful of a similarly comfortable win at Camp Nou.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.809/1

Atléti to end Sevilla’s unbeaten home run

Sevilla v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 20:00
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While Sevilla are yet to taste defeat at home in the league this season, November’s loss against Lille paved the way for a surprise Champions League group stage elimination. Things won’t be easy for Julen Lopetegui’s side this weekend, with visitors Atléti boasting a 1.74 away xGF average which is second only to league leaders Real Madrid, and Infogol makes the visitors narrow favourites for this one.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 15.0014/1

Granada to make it four without defeat

Granada v Mallorca
Sunday, 13:00
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An inviting run of fixtures has seen Granada pick up five points from their last three games to climb to 15th, and another win on Sunday would leave them just a point behind Mallorca. The visitors won their last road game – against the champions, no less – but have averaged a worrying 1.93 xGA away from home and may be a little flattered by their mid-table position at this stage.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1

Betis’ recent winning run to end

Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis
Sunday, 15:15
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Real Betis have now won four on the bounce in the league, while they have a Europa League play-off against Zenit to look forward to in the new year after finishing second in their group. Those last two wins may have flattered them a little, though, and Manuel Pellegrini’s side may need to either up their game or continue riding their luck to get anything from an Athletic side averaging just 0.78 xGA at San Mamés.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.0010/1

Getafe to continue push towards safety

Getafe v Osasuna
Sunday, 17:30
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There’s a chance Getafe end the gameweek outside the bottom three if they can extend their unbeaten run to five games with a victory on Sunday. Osasuna have outperformed their numbers on the road, but results have tailed off of late and the home side will hope for a repeat of their victory in this fixture on the opening weekend of the 2020-21 season.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2

Real Madrid to stay clear at the top

Real Madrid v Cádiz
Sunday, 20:00
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A win in Madrid last season was one of the highlights for Cádiz, but Infogol can’t envisage a repeat with the hosts’ chances of victory rated at 79%. Álvaro Cervera’s visitors are averaging 1.8 xGA away from home – in line with their numbers from last season – and the team from the capital will want to impress in what will be their last home game until January 9.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.4013/2

Valencian derby too close to call

Levante v Valencia
Monday, 20:00
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While Levante are still waiting for their first win of the season, it’s hard to imagine them having too much difficulty getting up for a derby against neighbours Valencia. Infogol’s model gives both sides an identical chance of victory despite the visitors’ recent unbeaten run, with last season’s meetings seeing each side claim a win, and it could be a case of the first goal being crucial.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 14.50 or 0-2 @ 15.50