League One Saturday Tips: Millers and Charlton to cover the handicaps easily

Millers have the look of champions

Rotherham United v Burton Albion
Saturday 11th December, kick-off 15:00

A change again in Rotherham’s League One Winner price price from 2.3611/8 into 2.26/5 happened on Tuesday following one of their best performances of the season in hammering Gillingham 5-1. If they keep going at this rate, they’ll be odds-on before the month is out.

It was emphatic to say the least and they peppered Gillingham’s goal with shot after shot. Steve Evans, the former manager, has already called them the best team in the division.

Their unbeaten run stretches back to the beginning of September, and their home form is sparkling as they are recording big victories. They beat Cambridge 3-1, Sunderland 5-1, Portsmouth 4-1 and Wimbledon 3-0. Twenty seven goals at the New York makes them the top-scorers, so it’s credit that Wigan and Wycombe are still keeping tabs as both are on 41 points too.

Burton have lost four of their last five away league games (W1), more than they had in their previous 17 on the road (3), so it makes it hard to recommend them as an outside bet, and at 7.06/1, that’s the biggest I have seen Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink’s side for a while.

They played well and pushed Wycombe in a 2-1 loss at Adams Park on Tuesday. They showed some spirit and ability as they were blown away in the first-half, but fought back with a good spell of possession in the second, but Wycombe are that sort of team that allows opponents the ball.

Rotherham are on the longest current unbeaten run of any side in League One (14 – W9 D5). They’ve conceded just seven goals in this run, and never more than once in a match, so we can play the -1 Handicap again to push out the price and back overs. To go a bit further, the Sportsbook Betbuilder pays 3.68 for a double on Rotherham to win and Over 3.5. A feat they have achieved five times this term.

KEY OPTA STAT: Before losing both league games against Rotherham in 2019-20, Burton had won three in a row against the Millers. The Brewers have also scored exactly twice in four of their last five league games against Rotherham.

Jackson should get the job, now!

Charlton Athletic v Cambridge United
Saturday 11th December, kick-off 15:00

Quite why Johnnie Jackson isn’t the permanent boss of Charlton still remains a mystery. Having been appointed in the interim to replace Nigel Adkins, his team have played some outstanding football. They are tactically flexible, although Jackson favours the 3-5-2, but they are excellent in the press and their energy has been upped plenty since Adkins left. They have taken 17 points from 24 under the caretaker, and also came through a tricky away FA Cup tie at Gateshead.

And yet still Mr Sandgaard is dragging his heels.

The Addicks were fantastic against Ipswich on Tuesday night, winning 2-0 with a goal from Alex Gilbey, who said “I’m desperate for him to be announced now.”

“The lads love Jacko. He’s been absolutely brilliant. This season we’ve won some games where we’ve competed really well and run hard but not been that good on the ball. [Against Ipswich], it’s all come together. We were really good on and off the ball. You have to be against top sides. It’s all come together really well,” he told the South London Press.

Their movement was impressive, so it’s hardly the shock of the season they are priced at 1.51/2. I don’t like playing HT/FT markets for a team so short, so I prefer once again to delve into the -1 market.

Backing that way in Charlton’s last four matches at the Valley would have copped on three occasions with three clean sheets. The only blip, if you can call it a blip was a 1-1 against Rotherham. A terrific point.

Cambridge have scored in all 24 of their away league games so far in 2021, the U’s longest ever run of scoring in consecutive away games in the Football League. So that’s a danger, but the hosts are very sound defensively.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have lost just one of their last eight league games (W5 D2), with their 17 points in this run almost double the amount they’d earned in their first 13 games this season (9).

Hard to ignore resurgent Wycombe

Wycombe Wanderers v AFC Wimbledon
Saturday 11th December, kick-off 15:00

No League One team won has more home league games than Wycombe this season (8), while the Chairboys are the only side yet to draw a home game in the league this term (L2). And out of the ‘big three’ for this weekend with short prices, once again Wanderers are a touch on the large side for me at 1.8910/11.

I cannot believe I doubted their credentials following two successive home defeats to Ipswich and Portsmouth, but it happens to teams down here, they have blips. And if Gareth Ainsworth only has to deal with that, they are on target for another promotion.

Their home record is ultra-strong with eight success and two draws, and they face a Wimbledon team that have tried to change their style to a more possession-based game. In a strange role reversal, Wycombe a far more “Crazy Gang” than the “Crazy Gang” themselves, and Ainsworth would know having played for Wimbledon too.

The Dons have lost five on the road, and while their 2-0 win at Accrington in the week was a much-needed boost in terms of their fight to stay in the division, the Londoners are looking to pick up back-to-back away league victories for the only first time since October 2020. So we have that on our side backing the hosts.

The Wycombe boss was linked with the Preston job this week, clearly a division the Deepdale club were looking at, as they’ve instead gone for Ryan Lowe – who has sensationally quit Plymouth to take over at Preston. Huge news in League One, and severe ramifications for those ante-post bets on the Greens. Ainsworth loves life at Adams Park too much.

KEY OPTA STAT: Wycombe Wanderers’ only victory against AFC Wimbeldon in the Football League came at Adams Park in October 2014; a 2-0 win with goals from Josh Scowen and Sam Wood.

*Click here to read Ian Lamont’s League Two tips for Saturday