Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as the top-four chase opens right up…
“Interim manager Ralf Rangnick will take charge of his first Manchester United game on Sunday, and it’s a fixture the Red Devils lost in their first match of last season.”
Chelsea to dent West Ham’s top four bid
West Ham United v Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30
West Ham have dropped back into the pack after Brighton’s late midweek equaliser made it three games without a win for David Moyes’ side, and the prospect of the league leaders visiting the London Stadium looks unlikely to help. Last season’s corresponding game went the way of the visitors, who had the best chances even before a Fabián Balbuena red card, and Infogol backs them to win again.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Newcastle’s first win to arrive at long last
Newcastle United v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00
An early red card made things difficult for Newcastle on Tuesday, though they did briefly lead against Norwich City before ending up with a point, and Eddie Howe’s side are running out of chances to stay in touch with their rivals at the bottom. A home average of 2.14 xGA per game is the league’s worst, but Burnley are winless and struggling for goals on the road and Infogol favours the hosts.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Brighton to build on midweek point
Southampton v Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, 15:00
Brighton continue to put in solid performances, but are still waiting on a long overdue win despite a morale-boosting equaliser on Wednesday. They make the relatively short trip to take on a Southampton side winless in three themselves, and Infogol can see this going either way but just about gives Graham Potter’s men the edge at St Mary’s as they aim to add to last season’s 2-1 win.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Liverpool to pip goal-shy Wolves
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool
Saturday, 15:00
Wolves are unbeaten in their last three games but have only scored once in that period, and that could be an issue against opponents averaging 2.94 xGF per game on the road. Liverpool won 1-0 at Molineux last season through Diogo Jota, and the Portugal man is in fine goalscoring form – along with many of his other colleagues – as he prepares to take on his former employers.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Man City to prolong their winning run
Watford v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30
Watford were unfortunate to take no points from their last two outings, but even performing to the best of their abilities might not be enough to give Claudio Ranieri’s team much of a chance against the champions. City are averaging just 0.93 xGA on the road – no team has a stingier defensive record in that sense, though Chelsea have conceded fewer actual goals – and Infogol can only see one result.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Leeds to continue revival at Elland Road
Leeds United v Brentford Sunday, 14:00
While Leeds haven’t quite been at their best over the last two games, they’ve been at the stage where results are more important than performances. Raphinha’s late winner against Crystal Palace was huge for Marcelo Bielsa’s men, and they can build on the result against a Brentford team who they beat at Elland Road on their way up from the Championship in the 2019-20 season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Man Utd to begin Rangnick era with a win
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
Sunday, 14:00
Interim manager Ralf Rangnick will take charge of his first Manchester United game on Sunday, and it’s a fixture the Red Devils lost in their first match of last season. Palace are coming off two straight defeats, albeit somewhat unfortunate ones, but an average of just 1.07 xGF away from Selhurst Park could end up counting against Patrick Vieira’s side this time around.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Spurs to get the better of Norwich
Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City Sunday, 14:00
Spurs have come into their own at home under Antonio Conte, and the visit of Norwich is unlikely to cause them too many problems. The visitors failed to beat Newcastle last time out despite playing more than 80 minutes against 10 men, and their recent unbeaten run shows some improvement but Infogol does not expect it to be enough for them to put up a significant fight against a resurgent home side.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Leicester to continue renaissance at Villa Park
Aston Villa v Leicester City
Sunday, 16:30
Leicester’s three-game unbeaten run has come off the back of some good attacking numbers, though they’ve been far from defensively solid over the same period. Villa’s 0.96 home xGF average is a concern, though, and they’ll hope the upturn in fortune under Steven Gerrard helps them defy Infogol’s expectations against a team who won this fixture 2-1 last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Arsenal to rebound from Old Trafford setback
Everton v Arsenal Monday, 20:00
Arsenal missed a chance to go fourth on Thursday night, but if West Ham lose on Saturday then they will have another opportunity to do so when they kick off in the final match of the gameweek. Opponents Everton have averaged 2.24 xGA across their six games, picking up a single point in the process, and the visitors will back themselves to keep home boss Rafa Benitez under pressure.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Source: Betfair Premier League
