Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the bottom three properly takes shape…
“An early six-pointer is on the menu at Martínez Valero, where Elche will want to use home advantage to move clear of the team on the other side of the relegation line.”
Granada to clamber above Alavés
Granada v Alavés
Friday, 20:00
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Granada’s home record hasn’t been much to write home about this season, with Robert Moreno’s side one of the worst in La Liga for both xGF and xGA in front of their own fans. However, they could claim a rare win against an Alavés side averaging just 1.03 xGF per game on the road themselves, and Infogol’s model gives the hosts a slight edge.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Sevilla to bounce back from Madrid defeat
Sevilla v Villarreal
Saturday, 13:00
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Villarreal have a huge game against Atalanta on the horizon, but even if they weren’t distracted by that then they’d likely find it tough at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuan. Sevilla were unfortunate to take nothing from their game at Real Madrid last time out, and should have the upper hand against opponents who they beat comfortably when the two teams met back in December 2020.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Xavi to continue unbeaten Barça start
Barcelona v Real Betis
Saturday, 15:15
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Barcelona started to look like themselves again last weekend in the win at Villarreal, and they are still yet to taste defeat since Xavi took over as manager. Opponents Betis have blown hot and cold of late, though they were impressive in their victory over Levante, and Infogol’s model backs the hosts to continue their impressive start to the season at Camp Nou.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
Mallorca’s wait for a win to continue
Atlético Madrid v Mallorca
Saturday 17:30
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Mallorca have come through a presentable recent run with no victories, and they’ll be worried as the games start to get harder again. Infogol gives them just a 7% chance of victory at the Wanda Metropolitano, where Atléti are averaging just 0.6 xGA per game, and it’s hard to even see Luis García’s side even getting on the scoresheet against the champions.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction –
La Real to fail to keep title race interesting
Real Sociedad v Real Madrid
Saturday, 20:00
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A win for Real Sociedad on Saturday could help keep the title race alive, but Imanol Alguacil’s side struggled against some of La Liga’s big hitters last season – admittedly, not against Madrid, with whom they shared two draws – and are expected to find things tough. Infogol makes the visitors nearly twice as likely as their hosts to claim victory, as Carlo Ancelotti aims to preserve the league’s best away record.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Rayo to stay unbeaten at Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 13:00
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Infogol’s model suggests there isn’t much to choose between these two sides, but Rayo have made Vallecas a fortress since returning to the top-flight and an Espanyol side still winless on the road are expected to find it tough. Last season’s Segunda División meeting ended 1-0 to the hosts, and we could be in for another close encounter between the promoted sides on Sunday.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Elche to create distance to bottom three
Elche v Cádiz
Sunday, 15:15
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An early six-pointer is on the menu at Martínez Valero, where Elche will want to use home advantage to move clear of the team on the other side of the relegation line. The visitors’ 1.84 xGA average is one of the worst in the league, and new manager Francisco will hope he can take advantage to earn his first win since replacing Fran Escribà in the dugout.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Levante to win after Pereira dismissal
Levante v Osasuna
Sunday, 17:30
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Levante have already ditched two managers this season, with Javier Pereira leaving after failing to win a single league game, but Infogol’s model suggests their fortunes could finally change this weekend. Opponents Osasuna have outperformed their numbers on the road, but haven’t scored in their last three away games, giving the hosts hope of a first win at the 16th attempt.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Celta to claim first back-to-back wins since September
Celta Vigo v Valencia
Sunday, 20:00
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Celta’s win at Alavés last weekend made it four games unbeaten, though their weekend opponents have an almost identical record over the same period. Eduardo Coudet’s hosts have been better than their points tally at Balaídos suggests, averaging 1.49 xGF in front of their fans, and have a solid chance of repeating their victory over Los Che from the start of the 2020-21 season.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Athletic to keep Getafe in the bottom three
Getafe v Athletic Bilbao
Monday, 20:00
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An upturn in form has helped lift Getafe off the foot of the table, but they’re still in the bottom three as they welcome a defensively solid Athletic. The visitors are averaging just 0.99 xGA per game this season across their home and away games, and took four points from Monday’s opponents across their two meetings last term, though Infogol doesn’t anticipate as much goalmouth action as we saw in their last clash in Bilbao.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction –
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
