Our football props cloumn goes in search of more profits in tonight’s Champions League game between Lille and Salzburg, with cards very much on the menu.
“The Salzburg right-back has managed 1+ shot in 18 of his 20 club games this season, including every Champions League match.”
We’ve got a near-perfect blend for a card-laden game here.
First of all, the teams.
Lille are the second most-carded team in the Champions League group stage having picked up 17 yellows in their four games so far. As an added bonus, they are also the fourth most-fouled team.
Salzburg’s yellow-card tally of nine is small in comparison but they have committed more fouls than all bar two of the 32 sides in the group stage.
Therefore it’s not hard to see them angering referee Anthony Taylor, one of the strictest UEFA officials.
The Englishman has shown at least five cards in 19 of his last 24 appointments in UEFA’s club competitions with a red produced in eight of the last 22.
Throw in the fact that this group is the tightest in the competition – Salzburg lead it by two points from Lille and Wolfsburg with Sevilla two points further back – and this promises to be a hugely competitive game.
I’m therefore happy to pick both teams to have over 1.5 cards, something which has landed in seven of Taylor’s 10 UEFA games since the start of last season.
To bump up the price to 6/4, I’m going to add Rasmus Nissen Kristensen to have 1+ shot.
The Salzburg right-back has managed this in 18 of his 20 club games this season, including every Champions League match. He had three in the reverse fixture.
He gets forward down the right and may get greater opportunity to do so given Lille are missing key men in both midfield and defence where left-back Reinildo Mandava is expected to miss out through illness.
The Dane is also a threat from set pieces so he should be able to manage at least one effort on goal.
Other options are available to boost the price – conditions look good for Kristensen to hit more than one shot, while Salzburg midfielders Mo Camara (seven cards in 18 starts this season) and Nicolas Capaldo (eight cards in 21 appearance, including three in three in the Champions League) hold strong cases in the player-carded market.
However, I’m going to stick with simpler option in a bid to get this week’s European action off to a winning start.
Click here for Dan Fitch’s in-depth preview of Lille v Salzburg
Source: BetFair Tips
