Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

Southampton 2.0811/10 v Aston Villa 3.8514/5, the Draw 3.711/4
20:00

Dean Smith is the favourite to be the next manager to leave as his Aston Villa team try to end a run of four consecutive defeats when they go to Southampton on Friday night.

Mark O’Haire says: “Only two of the last 11 Premier League meetings between Southampton and Aston Villa have been won by the home side, with the away team taking top honours in three of the most recent four renewals. During that sample, Saints and Villa have shared an even W3-D3-L3 return in head-to-head meetings at St Mary’s going back to 2003.

“Southampton 2.166/5 have displayed solid signs of progress since their opening day loss to Everton. Although Saints have since posted only two triumphs (W2-D5-L2), Ralph Hasenhuttl’s outfit rank third for Expected Points (xP) over the past eight games and have won the non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) battle in four of their five home fixtures.

“Aston Villa 3.7011/4 have endured a tough schedule yet Dean Smith’s squad have been turned over in six of 10 matches, shipping 12 goals in their most recent four encounters. The Villans are ranked inside the bottom-six across all the major ratio metrics across their last eight games and head to St Mary’s missing a number of key cogs in their preferred starting XI.”

Mark’s bet: Back Southampton 0 & -0.5 at 1.865/6

Manchester United 5.14/1 v Manchester City 1.768/11, the Draw 4.1
Saturday, 12:30

Manchester United hope to banish memories of their 5-0 defeat to Liverpool in their last home match. The problem for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is that his team now face the champions.

Alex Keble says: “Manchester United are once again in a good position to win ‘Big Six’ matches after Ole Gunnar Solskjaer reverted to the counter-attacking and pragmatic tactical system he had abandoned over the last 12 months. His attempt to introduce a more front-foot mode of playing has backfired badly, and having come so close to losing his job surely Solskjaer now has the humility to use the system that beat Tottenham 3-0 with regularity.

“That means a deeper line, minimal pressing, and the 3-5-2 formation sitting in neat rows, shuffling back and forth to deny space in the final third. It’s a simple tactical methodology and frankly all Solskajer is capable of, and it also happens to be the best way to stunt a Manchester City team whose attack is suffering this season.

“Too much is going through Jack Grealish and he hasn’t quite settled yet, while the lack of a striker means City can struggle to create chances when up against an air-tight defence. United ought to be able to create a dull and low-scoring game here, and with Cristiano Ronaldo in form they may even steal the three points.”

Alex’s bet: Back double chance United/draw at 2.01/1

Wolfsburg 1.574/7 v Augsburg 6.86/1, the Draw 4.3100/30
14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Wolfsburg are enjoying life under their new manager and their impressive form looks set to continue in our Saturday afternoon pick from the Bundesliga.

Kevin Hatchard says: “The impact of Florian Kohfeldt on Wolfsburg’s form is undeniable. The former Werder Bremen boss has picked up a hugely impressive 2-0 win at Bayer Leverkusen, a game that saw the hosts denied a shot on target until deep into stoppage time, and a vital Champions League victory against Salzburg. The switch to a back three has given the team the structure they were missing under Kohfedlt’s predecessor Mark van Bommel, forward Lukas Nmecha has scored the winner in both games, and Kohfeldt might just be the man to unlock the potential of Belgian maverick Dodi Lukebakio.

“Of course, these are early days, and Kohfeldt couldn’t prevent Werder Bremen’s relegation last term, but I have always maintained that he is a talented coach. He should be able to pick up another victory against an Augsburg team that won 4-1 against Stuttgart last weekend, but that has generally struggled this term. The Swabians have lost their last three away matches, conceding nine goals in the process, and they have only scored twice in five road games in the league this term.”

Kevin’s bet: Back Wolfsburg -1.0 on the Asian Handicap v Augsburg at 1.9620/21

Chelsea 1.282/7 v Burnley 14.5, the Draw 6.25/1
15:00

The Blues have now won six of their last seven in all competitions so the key to betting on this match may be to work out how, not if, they will prevail.

Jamie Pacheco says: “Chelsea have scored two penalties this season. That puts them in a tie with four other teams on two and only Everton with three, have scored more.

“But both of those came in their last two league matches, Mason Mount stepping up to convert against Norwich in that 7-0 drubbing and Jorginho helping himself to one last week at Newcastle.

“For good measure, they also got two in a 4-0 win over Malmo in late October so they’ve had a fair few come their way of late.

“At 7/5 you can back any penalty in the game, at 2/1 you can back a penalty being scored and at 13/5 you can back Chelsea to score one. Interestingly, that’s the exact price as chief penalty-taker Jorginho scoring anytime.”

Back Jorginho to score @ 3.505/2

Blackpool 3.02/1 v QPR 2.546/4, the Draw 3.412/5
17:30

Fifth-placed QPR look to themselves in the play-off positions when they travel north to midtable Blackpool for this Saturday tea-time clash.

Mark O’Haire says: “Underlying data metrics suggest QPR 2.568/5 are overperforming. The R’s sit just inside the play-off places, although Expected Points (xP) rankings place Mark Warburton’s men down in mid-table. However, the Hoops have managed W7-D4-L2 when excluding the runaway top-three, including a W3-D1-L1 return on the road when overlooking the league’s elite.

“Defence was the foundation for Blackpool’s promotion-winning campaign and Neil Critchley’s charges have displayed signs of defensive progress in recent weeks. The hosts have silenced four of their most recent 11 opponents and conceded more than a solitary strike on just three occasions. Four of those fixtures produced a maximum of one goal.

“Even so, goals tend to follow QPR. Rangers are the only Championship side to score in all 16 of their league encounters thus far, and the away side have also be involved in plenty of enjoyable encounters with Both Teams To Score 1.738/11 paying out in 11 (69%) matches, including six of eight games as guests in 2021/22.”

Mark’s bet: Back Both Teams To Score at 1.738/11

Cagliari 6.411/2 v Atalanta 1.558/15, the Draw 4.84/1
19:45
Live on BT Sport 3

Having held Manchester United to a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford in midweek, Atalanta return to domestic matters with a trip to Sardinia to take on Serie A’s bottom club Cagliari.

Chloe Beresford says: “It has been a woeful start to the season for the Rossoblu, who have conceded at least two goals in nine of their last 11 Serie A matches.

“That is hardly ideal when preparing for a clash with Gian Piero Gasperini’s free-scoring side, and it is no surprise to learn that Atalanta have won six of their last seven away matches, or that they have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four away games against Saturday’s opponents.”

Chloe’s bet: Back Atalanta to win to nil @ 2.8815/8

Real Madrid 1.392/5 v Rayo Vallecano 8.27/1, the Draw 5.69/2
20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Real Madrid are second in La Liga but punters think they have more staying power than Real Sociedad and make Carlo Ancelotti’s men odds-on for the title.

Tom Victor says: “Just four of Rayo’s 20 points have come on the road, and Infogol’s model doesn’t expect them to add to that tally after making the short trip to face Real Madrid.

“Carlo Ancelotti’s side remain unbeaten at the Bernabéu across four league games, and, while their opponents secured an impressive clean sheet at Celta Vigo last time out, this one looks like going the way of the hosts.”

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over

Tom’s bet: Back the 3-0 @ 10.5019/2