Chelsea v Burnley: A pair of Blues’ scorers at decent prices

“He’s been making all sorts of forward runs as part of their wing-backs system, clearly has an eye for goal and even more obviously, is a vey decent finisher. 11/2 is decent enough he scores given Chelsea could conceivably score three or four here.”

Chelsea strong on all fronts

The Blues have now won six of their last seven across league, Champions League and EFL Cup matches. The only one they didn’t win was that EFL Cup game, a 1-1 draw against Southampton that they ended up winning on penalties anyway.

They only conceded in two of them and to make the whole thing even more impressive, have been without their two main forwards in Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner for the last few.

It shows what a wonderful job Thomas Tuchel is doing, who in the process has also rotated his players well so no-one is getting too fatigued as the fixtures mount up.

The only other player other than the two already mentioned who should miss out is Mateo Kovacic.

Mason Mount should be back after a niggle kept him out last week.

Much-needed Burnley win last week

Burnley secured a much-needed win at home to Brentford last week. They’re not out of the relegation zone just yet, currently in 18th on seven points and three off Leeds in 17th.

An important aspect of that win is that despite Brentford being in 12th at the moment, Burnley surely see them as a real relegation candidate who they took points off.

Having said that, the scoreline someone flattered them. They had just 40% possession and it was all pretty level on the other usual metrics.
Their injury situation is better than Chelsea’s. Only Dale Stephens is unavailable.

Chelsea are 1.282/7, the draw is 14.013/1 and the away win a whopping 14.013/1. It’s not often you find prices that are downright wrong in the Premier League, and if there are, this isn’t necessarily one of them.

On the one hand we’re talking about two teams separated by 18 points after just 10 matches. The Blues have scored 26 goals, Burnley just 10. The home team have conceded just three, the away team 17.

Having said all that, Burnley actually won this fixture (2-3) at Stamford Bridge back in 2017/18 and drew it 2-2 in 2018/19 before things returned to normal with 3-0 and 2-0 wins for Chelsea over the past two seasons. So consider that, before diving in at such a short price.

There will surely be some interest in the 10/11 on the Sportsbook that Chelsea win to nil but that seems a bit short to me.

It’s all well and good saying that Tuchel’s men have been excellent at the back this season but it only takes one error or moment of inspiration by a Burnley man and in light of that I’d want an odds-against quote before being interested.

Chelsea have scored two penalties this season. That puts them in a tie with four other teams on two and only Everton with three, have scored more.

But both of those came in their last two league matches, Mason Mount stepping up to convert against Norwich in that 7-0 drubbing and Jorginho helping himself to one last week at Newcastle.

For good measure, they also got two in a 4-0 win over Malmo in late October so they’ve had a fair few come their way of late.

At 7/5 you can back any penalty in the game, at 2/1 you can back a penalty being scored and at 13/5 you can back Chelsea to score one.

Interestingly, that’s the exact price as chief penalty-taker Jorginho scoring anytime.

The way I see it Jorginho’s brilliant record from the spot suggests that if they get one, he’ll take it and score it.

And of course, you get the added benefit that he could score in open play as well, as part of the bet.

Ben Chilwell missed the first few matches of the season. Thomas Tuchel explained he wasn’t in the best place after being part of the England squad who made the Euro 2020 squad and not getting a single minute under his belt across the whole tournament.

But he’s been making up for lost time. Across five matches between October 2 and October 23, he scored in four of them; three for Chelsea and one for England.

He’s been making all sorts of forward runs as part of their wing-backs system, clearly has an eye for goal and even more obviously, is a very decent finisher. 11/2 is decent enough he scores given Chelsea could conceivably score three or four here.

Reece James made headlines last week for two super goals in that win over Newcastle and is a 13/2 chance to score another. But I prefer the 4/1 that he gets an assist; he has two for the season.

So you can make that the first part of your double as a Bet Builder and if you add ‘no’ on both teams to score at 4/6, your double comes to 10.04.