Chelsea suffered a hiccup against Juventus last time but they should find Malmo accommodating Champions League visitors on Wednesday night, says Dave Tindall…
Chelsea have chance to take firm grip
It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for holders Chelsea in the Champions League this season.
They needed 69 minutes to break down Zenit St Petersburg at Stamford Bridge in their group opener and couldn’t add to Romelu Lukaku’s goal.
And despite dominating, they were almost pegged back when Zenit substitute Artem Dzyuba missed a golden chance to equalise late on.
Those three points are now particularly welcome after they suffered a 1-0 defeat away to Juventus last time.
Chelsea looked strong enough in the first-half but Federico Chiesa caught them cold by scoring just 10 seconds after the break.
Lukaku and Kai Havertz had chances to equalise but it wasn’t to be, leaving Chelsea on three points after two games.
But with back-to-back home games against Malmo to come, Thomas Tuchel will expect that tally to have increased to 10 by the time they look for revenge against Juventus next month.
Domestically, Chelsea are top of the Premier League although they haven’t fully convinced. That was very much the case at the weekend when the Blues were fortunate to escape with a 1-0 win at Brentford.
Malmo showing no signs of overperforming
This was obviously an ultra-tough group for Malmo to be drawn into although they may just have fancied causing a shock in their group opener against Juventus.
The ‘Old Lady’ went into that came creaking badly. Juventus had drawn their Serie A opener 2-2 at Udinese but then suffered successive defeats, losing 1-0 at home to Empoli before a 2-1 reverse at Napoli.
Could Malmo cash in on Juve’s stuttering form? The answer was a clear no. The Italians cruised to a 3-0 win thanks to first-half goals from Alex Sandro, Paulo Dybala (penalty) and Alvaro Morata.
That’s been somewhat of a turning point in their season but, for Malmo, it’s set off a wobble.
They still top the Swedish Allsvenskan on goal difference but a 1-0 home loss to struggling Mjallby could prove expensive and they’ve since suffered a 4-0 Champions League away defeat at Zenit.
That was a pretty miserable night in St Petersburg. They went behind early, showed signs of a revival but eight minutes into the second half the Swedes were 2-0 behind and down to 10 men after Anel Ahmedhodzic’s red card.
Two further Zenit goals in the last 10 minutes condemned them to a 4-0 defeat so their record now reads played two, no points, scored none, conceded seven.
They appear to be playing the role of group whipping boys rather too well.
No surprises to see that this is a seriously lopsided betting market with Chelsea trading at just 1.111/9 to get the three points and double their tally.
The Draw is 13.012/1 while Malmo are 4443/1 to pull off what would surely be an unfathomable shock.
On the Asian handicap, Chelsea -2.5 is just under Evens at 1.9110/11 while Chelsea -2.5 & -3.0 trades at 2.13.
Looking at the exchange, Any Other Home Win (Chelsea winning and scoring at least four) is 2.6613/8.
Chelsea haven’t exactly been banging in goals for fun and they’ve yet to surpass three in a match this season. However, they have hit exactly three in wins over Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Southampton at Stamford Bridge and away to Tottenham.
Therefore, I’ll try a small play on a 3-0 win at 6.05/1.
It may well be that this is the competition for Romelu Lukaku given that it was his winner that saw off Zenit in Chelsea’s last Champions League home game.
But that was his last club goal and it came six matches ago. On that basis, can we really justify an anytime scorer punt at just 4/11 despite the limited opposition?
Instead, I’ll look to Timo Werner.
True, the German’s haphazard finishing remains something of a running joke but let’s stick to some facts.
In his last 11 games for club and country, Werner has scored seven goals. He’s also registered in two of his last three at Stamford Bridge, the one blank coming against Manchester City.
A double for Germany against North Macedonia last Monday was a reminder that he can prey on weak defences and the 10/11 for a Werner goal looks big.
On the Bet Builder, the Werner to score and Chelsea (-1) option at around 2.111/10 and that’s worth a go on what should be a straightforward night for Tuchel’s men.
With a home game to come against Norwich this weekend, Chelsea can focus on the job in hand and Werner can help them to a comfortable win.
Source: Betfair Champions League
