Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

“If you are a believer in ‘new manager bounce’ then the 9.617/2 for a home win will certainly interest you. Normally though, a team that have made a managerial change have been on a bad run and due a change of luck – not something that is really true in Watford’s case.”

Watford v Liverpool
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Watford are 1.748/11 for relegation as they begin life under Claudio Ranieri against Liverpool at Vicarage Road.

Paul Robinson says: “If you are a believer in ‘new manager bounce’ then the 9.617/2 for a home win will certainly interest you. Normally though, a team that have made a managerial change have been on a bad run and due a change of luck – not something that is really true in this case.

“The strong favourite in the Match Odds market is a Liverpool win, of course, and it’s trading at around the 1.392/5 mark on the Betfair Exchange. The draw is 5.69/2.

“The hosts beat Aston Villa at home on the opening day of the season, but since then it’s been a 2-0 defeat to Wolves, and a 1-1 draw with Newcastle. That is hardly inspiring form, and Liverpool have scored three times in each of their three away matches this term.”

Paul’s bet: Back Any Other Away Win @ 5.14/1

Fulham v QPR 12:30 Live on Sky Sports Football

A West London derby gets Saturday underway in the Championship and the hosts will be keen to get their promotion bid back on track after some poor results. They’re out to 3.9 to win the title but still odds-on to go up.

Mark O’Haire says: “Fulham boast a strong recent record against West London neighbours QPR. The Cottagers are unbeaten in their most recent five league meetings with Rangers (W3-D2-L0), completing a league double when they last met in 2019-20. The hosts have triumphed in 10 of the past 14 head-to-heads (W10-D2-L2), scoring in every meeting dating back to 2000.

“Fulham 1.654/6 have dropped five points off the Championship pace-setters following a return of just two triumphs in six (W2-D1-L3). However, Silva’s men continue to top the Expected Points (xP) charts, and rank inside the top-three for all the major performance data metrics. The hosts have gone off shorter than 1.402/5 in three home outings already.

“QPR 5.204/1 have won the most games (20), the most points (65) and scored the most goals (59) of any Championship team in regular league action in 2021. But Rangers’ record at top-half teams hasn’t completely convinced with the R’s posting W1-D2-L3. Trips to both Bournemouth and West Brom have ended fruitless despite encouraging efforts.”

Mark’s bet: Back Fulham to win and Both Teams To Score at 2.8815/8

Borussia Dortmund v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

With the Bayern and Leverkusen playing each other on Sunday, Dortmund can go top of the Bundesliga on Saturday afternoon if they beat struggling Mainz.

Tom Victor says: “Mainz can count themselves unfortunate to have lost their last two matches, suffering single-goal defeats in even contests against Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, but a trip to Signal Iduna Park isn’t what any team struggling for results would want.

“Dortmund’s victory over Augsburg last time out wasn’t as close as the 2-1 scoreline suggests, and a perfect home start for Marco Rose’s side – with a 2.58 xGF average – suggests they’ll be hard to stop.”

Tom’s bet: Back the 3-1 @ 12.0011/1

Brentford v Chelsea
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Premier League

There’s a different kind of west London derby on the box Saturday tea-time as the Premier League leaders head to Brentford.

Dave Tindall says: “Anyone who watched Brentford’s 3-3 draw against Liverpool will surely be a little tempted by the Over 2.5 Goals price of 2.0811/10.

“That said, Brentford’s other two home games have witnessed scorelines of 2-0 (v Arsenal) and 0-1 (v Brighton). They also drew 0-0 at Crystal Palace. In addition, Chelsea have conceded just seven goals in their 12 Premier League away games under Tuchel.

“The bet I like most in what could be an all-action derby is Christian Norgaard to be carded at 11/4. The combative Dane has played in all seven of Brentford’s games and been shown a yellow card in three of them. Norgaard was also booked in Denmark’s 5-0 home win over Israel.

“In addition, he played in both of his country’s World Cup qualifiers last week so tired legs and mind could equate to the odd mistimed tackle that could bring punishment.”

Dave’s bet: 1pt Christian Norgaard to be shown a card at 3.7511/4

AC Milan v Hellas Verona
Saturday October 16, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Milan can return to the summit of Serie A by beating Hellas Verona on Saturday night but, as our previewer explains, the hosts have a big absence at the back.

Chloe Beresford says: “After Mike Maignan was ruled out for at least the next two weeks with a wrist injury, Milan have looked to add veteran free agent goalkeeper Antonio Mirante to their squad. This game will likely be too soon for the former Juventus and Parma man to be in action, meaning Ciprian Tatarusanu will be between the sticks here. He has only made one Serie A appearance for the club and looked very poor in a 3-3 draw with Roma, so Hellas will do well to test him here.

“The visitors are unbeaten in their last four games and look strong defensively, and there have been over 2.5 goals scored in six of Verona’s last seven games, something that should continue here. “

Chloe’s bet: Back the 2-1 @ 7.513/2

Real Sociedad 1.454/9 v Mallorca 9.28/1; The Draw 4.67/2
Saturday 16 October, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live video

Real Sociedad can go top of La Liga if they win their home match against Mallorca on Saturday and our previewer expects them to do exactly that.

Dan Fitch says: “Currently third in the table, Sociedad are level on 17 points with the leaders Real Madrid and the reigning champions Atletico Madrid, but trail the rivals on goal difference. With the Madrid giants having had their games postponed this week, Sociedad can move three points clear by extending an unbeaten run that now stretches to nine games across all competitions.

“Since losing to Barcelona on the first day of the season, Sociedad have played seven La Liga games without defeat (W5 D2). In their last outing they drew 1-1 at Getafe and with a difficult fixture away at Atletico next weekend, this is one they really need to win.”

Dan’s bet: Back Real Sociedad to beat Mallorca and under 2.5 goals at 3.39/4