La Liga Tips: Atlético to compound Barcelona misery in gameweek 8

“Last season’s early-season victory over Barcelona helped Atlético Madrid launch their ultimately successful title charge, and Infogol makes them the favourites as they aim to repeat the trick on Saturday.”

Athletic to earn first win in four

Athletic Bilbao v Alavés
Friday, 20:00
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Alavés’ win against the champions last week was huge, both on its own and for the season ahead, but it will be tough for them to follow the result with another three points. Athletic didn’t give up much at San Mamés last term, and the recent defeat to Rayo was their only loss home or away this season, but a recent winless run is something which Marcelino’s side will want to put behind them on Friday night.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.206/1

Osasuna to stop Rayo’s winning run

Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, 13:00
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Osasuna really rode their luck to win at Mallorca last time out, surviving a 4.03 xGA onslaught to claim the points through Javi Martínez’s late winner. Jagoba Arrasate’s side are long overdue a home win, though, and they’ll be made to work for it against a Rayo side coming off three successive wins, but the visitors have been far less defensively sturdy on their travels and may come up short.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.50

Mallorca’s woes to continue against Levante

Mallorca v Levante
Saturday, 15:15
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After a run of one point from four games, Mallorca will feel there underlying numbers can at least give them a solid chance against struggling Levante. Infogol’s model suggests it will be a close-run thing, with neither team holding a greater than 40% chance of victory, but the away side’s 1.3 xGF per game average is expected to finally be enough to earn them the win they need to create a gap to the bottom three.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 18.0017/1

Valencia to pick up first win in a while

Cádiz v Valencia
Saturday, 17:30
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After Marcos André’s last-gasp equaliser earned Valencia a point last time out, Pepe Bordalás will hope his side can return to winning ways after a tough run of fixtures. Hosts Cádiz are yet to gain any real momentum this term, with one of the worst xGA records in the league playing its part, and Infogol backs the visitors to gain revenge for last season’s loss at Ramón de Carranza.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 13.0012/1

Atléti to dent Barcelona’s league revival hopes

Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
Saturday, 20:00
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Last season’s early-season victory over Barcelona helped Atlético Madrid launch their ultimately successful title charge, and Infogol makes them the favourites as they aim to repeat the trick on Saturday. Barça’s two away draws flatter them a little when you look at the numbers, with the defeat at Benfica not likely to boost away confidence, while Ronald Koeman’s side haven’t won away to a top-half team since April, explaining why the hosts are expected to triumph.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1

Elche to remain winless at home

Elche v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 13:00
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After picking up five of their eight wins last season at Martínez Valero, Elche may be a little concerned at their three draws from three home games so far. Opponents Celta are chasing a third straight league win, though their victory at Levante came via two goals from three shots, and Infogol’s model backs the visitors to go one better than the 1-1 draw they managed in the corresponding fixture last season.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.5021/2

Real Madrid to bounce back after European shock

Espanyol v Real Madrid
Sunday, 15:15
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Real Madrid’s surprise home defeat to Sheriff came in spite of plenty of clear-cut chances, suggesting it shouldn’t give them too much to worry about in the long term. A failure to follow it with a win at Espanyol would be a concern, though, despite Vicente Moreno’s side picking up a first league victory last weekend, and Infogol backs the 2020 champions to see off a team who they beat to nil in their last meeting.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 9.008/1

Getafe to continue wait for first points

Getafe v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 17:30
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Getafe can have few complaints about their struggles at home this season, and a meeting with Real Sociedad doesn’t represent a gimme as they aim to get off the mark. The visitors are unbeaten in six in the league, winning five, and the hosts will know their chances of success will likely rely on them doing much better than the solitary shot they registered against the same opponents in February’s meeting.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1

Villarreal to bring Betis back to earth

Villarreal v Real Betis
Sunday, 17:30
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Real Betis will be above Villarreal in the table regardless of what happens in Sunday’s meeting, thanks in no small part to their impressive xGF return, but Unai Emery’s side looked to have refound their mojo in putting four past Elche in their last home game. The hosts have kept things tight at home this term, averaging 0.85 xGA, and this should be enough for them to defeat a team which will come into the game with one less day to prepare after European exertions.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1

Sevilla to keep up impressive start

Granada v Sevilla
Sunday, 20:00
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Sevilla continue to boast the league’s best defence in real and expected terms, averaging just 0.75 xGA per game, and will feel capable of launching a title challenge. Last season’s trip to Granada saw the hosts claim victory, albeit after playing 45 minutes a man up, and the team with the league’s worst xGA return so far this season cannot feel confident of another clean sheet this time around.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 9.008/1