Get the best bets for Saturday from our football experts with Chelsea v Man City in the Premier League as well as action in La Liga, Serie A and more…
Chelsea v Manchester City
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
The biggest match of the Premier League season so far gets gameweek six underway. City are 3.052/1 title favourites going in with Chelsea 3.1511/5. Expect that to change if Thomas Tuchel beats Pep Guardiola again.
Mark O’Haire says: “Chelsea have won all three meetings with Manchester City since Thomas Tuchel was appointed. The Blues were victorious in their FA Cup showdown, during their most recent Premier League match-up, and the Champions League final. Interestingly, none of the past 12 Premier League meetings between the pair have ended all-square.
“Chelsea 2.829/5 have endured a difficult opening stanza to 2021/22 yet remain unbeaten through five league fixtures despite trips to Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs already. The Blues’ record under Tuchel against elite opposition remains fiercely strong with the hosts returning W12-D3-L2 in Champions League matches and against fellow Big Six outfits.
“Manchester City 2.8615/8 have failed to score in two of their five Premier League games this term, as many as they had in their previous 30 in the competition. Nevertheless, the Citizens have impressed in the performance data metrics, sitting top of the tree for chances, shots and xG conceded, while only Liverpool have generated more goalmouth opportunities.”
Mark’s bet: Back Chelsea Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals at 1.758/11
Reading v Middlesbrough
12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
Mark O’Haire is also across the televised 12:30 kick-off in the Championship as two mid-table sides meet in Berkshire…
Mark says: “Middlesbrough 2.809/5 have been an inconsistent start to 2021/22 (W2-D3-L3) although Neil Warnock’s belief that Boro have been better than their results imply is backed up by the numbers. The Teessiders sit eighth for xP and npxG ratio returns, plus featuring prominently in the shots on-target standings and Big Chances created through eight rounds of action.
“Goals have been a feature of Reading’s early season encounters. Remarkably, the Royals have paid out for Over 2.5 Goals 2.001/1 backers in all eight of their opening Championship contests this term, with Both Teams To Score 1.804/5 hunters profiting in seven of those eight tussles. Combining the two plays in a Bet Builder appeals at 2.255/4 quotes on Saturday.”
Mark’s bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 2.255/4
Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Tom Victor says: “While Wolfsburg lost their 100% record last weekend, the chance-creation against Eintracht Frankfurt ensured a higher xGF than in several of their league victories.
“A trip to Hoffenheim is rarely straightforward, but the hosts haven’t been in the best of form of late, and their 1.58 xGA average suggests the away side will have opportunities to pick up the three points they need to stay in touch with Bayern Munich.”
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Brentford v Liverpool
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Promoted Brentford host Liverpool – 4.67/2 title shots – in the tea-time televised match and it’s part of our tactical expert’s Premier League four-fold.
Alex Keble says: “Brentford haven’t been particularly impressive since their opening day 2-0 win over Arsenal but the quality and possession dominance of this week’s opponent should bring the best out of Thomas Frank’s side. Brentford’s aggression in the challenge, directness in getting the ball up to Ivan Toney, and bold use of wing-backs can cause Jurgen Klopp real problems.
“Liverpool’s 4-3-3 is particularly narrow with the front three generally staying high up the pitch. This should hand Brentford the chance to counter down the flanks through Rico Henry and Sergi Canos, who will look to swing as many crosses into the box as they can for Toney and Bryan Mbeumo. The power of these two, winning aerial duels and making a nuisance of themselves, should generally cause problems in open play and from set-pieces.
“But Klopp’s side are nowhere near as brittle as Arsenal and will come prepared. One of the chief dangers of a 3-5-2 is that it becomes 5-3-2 when sat deep, opening up an inviting pocket of space in front of the wing-backs. From here, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson may have too much room to swing in dangerous crosses. There should be goals in this one, with the match settled by the battle for both flanks.”
Alex’s bet: Back Liverpool to win and BTTS at 3.211/5
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday 25 September, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
All eyes are on Borussia Dortmund coach Marco Rose, as he returns to the club where he spent the previous two seasons in the tea-time Bundesliga clash.
Kevin Hatchard says: “While Rose’s move is working out for Dortmund, the coaching upheaval hasn’t helped his old club Gladbach yet. His replacement Adi Hütter has had a tough start, with just four points collected from five games. Hütter certainly won’t panic (he made a bad start at Eintracht Frankfurt before recovering to do some excellent work), and he can point to some rotten luck with injuries.
“The play is goals here, with Over 3.5 Goals fairly priced in my view at 1.9420/21. That bet has paid out in four of Dortmund’s five league games, and the fragile-looking Gladbach defence has already conceded nine goals. The way Rose plays lends itself to a wide-open contest, and the Gladbach players will be pumped up to face a coach who some believe left Borussia Park too early.”
Kevin’s bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund at 1.9420/21
Genoa v Hellas Verona
Saturday September 25, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1
Goals are very much on the menu in this weekend’s Serie A preview – read it to get bets for two more big games – starting in Genoa on Saturday night.
Chloe Beresford says: “A 2-2 midweek draw with Bologna means there have now been over 2.5 goals scored in Genoa’s last five games in Serie A, and this clash at home against Hellas Verona should certainly be another high-scoring affair.
“Indeed, aside from a 1-0 loss to Bologna, every Hellas game this season has seen over 2.5 goals, the Gialloblu scoring eight times but conceding 11 in their five outings combined this term. What makes that even more interesting, is that Genoa have netted at least two goals in their last six home matches against Verona in all competitions.
“However, with new boss Igor Tudor at the helm, the visitors have seen an instant improvement, so the tip here is to back Hellas Verona to win and both teams to score at odds of 5.04/1.”
Chloe’s bet: Hellas Verona to win & both teams to score @ 5.04/1
Real Madrid v Villarreal
Saturday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Real Madrid are into 1.564/7 to win La Liga and our previewer thinks they can take another three points against midtable Villarreal on Saturday night.
Tom Victor says: Real Madrid’s 2.28 xGF average is the highest in La Liga, and Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been outperforming the underlying numbers with a frightening 21 goals from their six games so far.
After a six-goal return against a previously stingy Mallorca defence, Infogol expects Los Blancos to get the better of a Villarreal team who impressed themselves against Elche in midweek but haven’t won any of their last four games on the road.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Source: BetFair French
