Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga scoreline predictions as Julian Nagelsmann returns to Leipzig as Bayern Munich manager…
“After pipping Leipzig to the title last season, Bayern have taken some of their rivals’ most valuable assets, including manager Julian Nagelsmann.”
Dortmund to hand Leverkusen first defeat
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30
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Dortmund have come a long way since their January loss at the BayArena, and have shown enough this season to suggest they’ll be difficult to keep out. Infogol’s model predictably expects both teams to find the net, and the hosts’ unbeaten start will make things tough for Marco Rose’s men, but an away win is the more likely outcome in what promises to be an intriguing match-up.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Freiburg to earn third straight win
Freiburg v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
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Back-to-back victories have lifted Freiburg into the top four, a point clear of this weekend’s opponents, and they’ve already reached a points tally it took them nine games to achieve last term. The corresponding game in 2020 ended 5-0 to the hosts and, while this clash may be closer given Köln’s solid form going forward, another home win looks likely to be on the cards.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Wolfsburg to keep up 100% start
Greuther Fürth v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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After riding their luck a little to beat RB Leipzig, Wolfsburg have a golden opportunity to go four for four before beginning their Champions League campaign in Lille. Opponents Greuther Fürth have the league’s worst xGA after three games and it’s hard to see them denying Mark van Bommel’s side even with the benefit of home advantage on Saturday afternoon.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 8.4015/2
Hoffenheim to break home duck
Hoffenheim v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Two teams who can blow hot and cold meet at the PreZero Arena, with Hoffenheim hoping to avenge last season’s narrow defeat at home to Mainz. Infogol’s model gives a 64% chance of both sides finding the net, and a win for the hosts would see them leapfrog Bo Svensson’s side and give themselves a chance of ending the weekend in the top four if other results go their way.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Union to continue solid start
Union Berlin v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Union Berlin lost just once at home last season, but that came on the opening day against Augsburg. Urs Fischer’s side have since made Stadion An der Altern Försterei a tough place to visit, going nearly a full 12 months without defeat in the league, and Infogol backs them to continue that long run against visitors who have averaged a worrying 1.9 xGA per game so far this season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2
Bayern to come through tough test
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 17:30
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After pipping Leipzig to the title last season, Bayern have taken some of their rivals’ most valuable assets, including manager Julian Nagelsmann. Jesse Marsch’s hosts have shown some good signs so far this term but have underperformed their numbers across the opening three games, and Die Roten Bullen have struggled to break down Bayern at the best of times so it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see the visitors claim victory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Frankfurt to make up for lost time
Eintracht Frankfurt v Stuttgart
Sunday, 14:30
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Some encouraging early performances under Oliver Glasner haven’t been met with the results Eintracht Frankfurt might have liked, but a home meeting with Stuttgart can change that. After a surprise early cup exit, Glasner’s men will want to get their first win before beginning their European campaign at home to Fenerbahçe on Thursday, and the level of goalmouth action in Stuttgart’s games so far suggests they may be left needing to do it the hard way.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Hertha to pick up first points
Bochum v Hertha Berlin
Sunday, 16:30
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After some poor fortune in the first two games, Hertha can have few complaints about their hammering at the hands of Bayern Munich last time out. Pál Dárdai will be desperate for an immediate response away to a Bochum side who won their opener at Venovia Ruhrstadion, but haven’t been entirely convincing since coming up from the second tier in May.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.50 or 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Gladbach to bounce back from tough defeat in capital
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Arminia Bielefeld
Sunday, 18:30
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Borussia Mönchengladbach saw plenty of the ball in dangerous areas last time out, but failed to come back from two goals down against Union Berlin. That result leaves Adi Hütter’s men in the lower reaches of the table at this early stage, but they can make important strides by beating an Arminia side coming off three straight draws. Last season’s meeting brought a 5-0 home win, and while it may be closer this time it’s tough to see the visitors causing an upset.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.207/1
Source: BetFair Tips