In a new column for 2021/22, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe will pick out teams who are hot and cold from an expected goals (xG) standpoint heading into the weekend. Have teams moved from last week? Read on to find out…
Given we are just two games into the Premier League season, and the expected goals (xG) metric is at it’s very best with a larger sample size to work from, in the first few articles of this column I will use the backend of last season as well as what we have witnessed so far to talk through hot and cold teams.
Who is HOT?
Chelsea
Chelsea swatted aside Arsenal with consummate ease, with Romelu Lukaku making an instant impact in attack for the Blues, helping his side to rack up an xG total of 3.17.
Defensively Thomas Tuchel’s side limited Arsenal to just 0.68 xG, and did so without N’Golo Kante and Thiago Silva. That means Chelsea have allowed an average of just 0.66 xGA per game in Tuchel’s 21 league games in charge.
It’s an astounding figure, but can they limit Liverpool’s front three on Saturday? That will be one enthralling battle.
Manchester City
It was business as usual for City as they swatted aside Norwich. Pep’s side conceded just the single shot to the Canaries, while their fluent attacking set-up caused chaos.
As mentioned in last weeks column, defeat at Spurs was undeserved based on quality of chances created, and if City continue to play with the same level of process they will remain the team to beat.
Best of luck on Saturday Arsenal…
West Ham (and Antonio)
Michail Antonio is a good bloke, and a good footballer. He is playing in the best attacking team in the league through (albeit) two games, with the Hammers having racked up 5.7 xG.
Antonio has been responsible, with either xG or xA, for 66% of the Hammer’s total, highlighting his importance, but if David Moyes’s side continue to create in the same manner, they will remain a team to be feared.
More on Antonio, he was the Premier League leader in non-penalty xG per 95 minutes last season, so the Hammers new number nine has picked up where he left off.
Who is WARM?
Now, because we have the same three teams in the ‘HOT’ category as last week, I’ve decided to add a ‘WARM’ category, highlighting teams who are bubbling under the surface but haven’t yet deserved the title of ‘HOT’. Let’s keep these snappy.
Manchester United
While pundits may have stated that Southampton deserved a point against Manchester United, the xG totals tell a different story (xG: SOU 0.66 – 2.16 MUN).
Infogol calculates based on the chances in the game that United would have collected three points 72% of the time, so it was a good display. A few more performances like that and Solskjaer’s side will be in the top category.
Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp’s side swept Burnley aside fairly comfortably, but they did have a few scares a long the way, and the same occurred in their 3-0 win at Norwich, meaning they are yet to cement HOT status.
The Reds are trending in the right direction though, with their defence improving with the return of Virgil van Dijk, while their attack is clicking. A good performance on Saturday against Chelsea could see them in the top tier.
Everton
It is still early days in the Rafa Benitez era, but the signs are incredibly encouraging. Though they were held by Leeds last weekend, the Toffees deserved the win after creating the better chances (xG: LEE 1.06 – 1.86 EVE).
That followed an equally as impressive display against Southampton. They appear to have improved on last season already, making them a team to be wary of. Brighton pose a big test at the weekend though.
Who is COOL?
Along with the ‘WARM’ category, I also want to add a mid-point on the cold side, we’ll call it teams that are ‘COOL’. This will comprise of teams I have concerns about due to the data, but not to the level of ‘COLD’ sides – who just so happen to be the same teams as last week.
Leicester
The Foxes were thumped 4-1 on Monday night by West Ham, but while the red card did have an obvious part to play in that scoreline, Leicester created chances equating to just 0.13 xG before Ayoze Perez was given his marching orders.
That wouldn’t be majorly concerning if it wasn’t for the fact that they mustered just 0.55 in their home opener against Wolves. If this type of attacking process becomes the norm for Leicester, who look to be lacking rhythm, then there may be a few more bad results coming there way.
Brendan Rodgers’ side travel to face Norwich on Saturday, and a poor performance in that game would likely see them slip into the COLD category.
Wolves
Bruno Lage’s side have had a tough opening schedule – playing Leicester (a) and Tottenham (h) already before hosting Manchester United on Sunday – and while they have won the xG battle in both games so far, the way in which they have done so is alarming.
Wolves are winning the xG battle through quantity and not quality. They have taken a staggering 42 shots in two games equating to 3.48 xG – meaning each shot has had an average xG of 0.08.
Adama Traore has missed two big chances in that sample (0.62 and 0.67 xG), Wolves only big chances created out of 42. It’s an issue, and that way of playing isn’t going to get results on a consistent basis.
Aston Villa
While Villa did win their first game of the campaign last weekend against Newcastle, their attacking process is something to keep an eye on when looking for betting angles.
Dean Smith’s side have scored four goals this term, two have been penalties, and its unrealistic to think a team will win a penalty every game, so lets look at their non-penalty xG stats.
In two games against Watford and Newcastle, Villa have generated 0.46 and 0.55 non-pen xG respectively. They are struggling to create from open play, and this weekend come up against a stubborn Brentford backline – a low-scoring game anyone?
Who is COLD?
Crystal Palace
Palace did nothing last week to make me think they are improving, really struggling to create chances once again when hosting Brentford (xG: CRY 0.62 – 0.85 BRE).
They didn’t allow much either, but it is the attacking side of the ball where their major improvements are needed. A trip to attack-minded West Ham will likely see a negative approach again though, so don’t be surprised to see another blank from Vieira’s side.
Southampton
While the result was a good one, the performance really wasn’t against Manchester United. They looked all over the place defensively, and it was the second game out of two this term in which they have allowed over 2.0 xGA.
Attack seems to be an issue too, with Saints creating very little so far this season. Hasenuttl’s men are certainly team I’m going to continue to oppose until I see some improvement, and that includes this weekend against a Newcastle team who have shown over their last 20 or so Premier League games an attacking intent.
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Source: Betfair Premier League
