Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as Barcelona begin the post-Messi era…
“With all the coverage of Lionel Messi moving to Paris Saint-Germain, you could be forgiven for forgetting Barcelona have a match to play on Sunday”
Bordalás to best former club
Valencia v Getafe
Friday, 20:00
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After leaving Getafe for Valencia, Pepe Bordalás’ first task is to take on his former employers at the Mestalla. Both sides flirted with relegation last season, but Infogol’s model backs the home side against opponents who averaged just 0.92 xGF per away game last time around – albeit with the man now in the home dugout.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.50
Levante to claim victory in Cádiz
Cádiz v Levante
Saturday, 18:30
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Cádiz’s home xGF of 1.07 per game was one of the lowest in La Liga last season, though their two meetings with Levante both ended in 2-2 draws. New signing Roberto Soldado has been among the goals for the visitors in pre-season, and he could be involved as Paco López’s men attempt to make a better start than last season, when they won just one of their first 10 games.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.50
Betis to build on fast finish
Mallorca v Real Betis
Saturday, 18:30
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Just one defeat from the last 16 games of the season helped Betis claim sixth place, with an average of 1.62 xGF per game across their last six, and a trip to promoted Mallorca can help them extend the unbeaten run into the new season. Infogol backs Manuel Pellegrini’s team to take the points after keeping the bulk of the team which enjoyed that run at the tail end of the 2020-21 campaign.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1
Real Madrid to begin Ancelotti era with away win
Alavés v Real Madrid
Saturday, 21:00
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It’s been a summer of changes in Madrid, with Carlo Ancelotti arriving as manager and centre-backs Sergio Ramos and Raphaël Varane moving on, but a new season offers an opportunity to get off to a flying start against an Alavés side who they beat 4-1 on the road last term. Los Blancos had La Liga’s best away record under Ancelotti’s predecessor Zinedine Zidane, and Infogol expects this to continue for now at least.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 7.006/1
Espanyol to kick off return with a defeat
Osasuna v Espanyol
Saturday, 21:00
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Espanyol were one of two teams to bounce back up after suffering relegation in 2020, but Vicente Moreno’s men may find things tougher at El Sadar. Osasuna overcame a tough start to finish last season in mid-table, and they’re expected to come out on top in a game which Infogol doesn’t anticipate producing too many goals.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2
Champions to open with a win
Celta Vigo v Atlético Madrid
Sunday, 16:30
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An early-season victory set Atléti on their way to the title last season, and Diego Simeone will hope for more of the same. The champions stumbled over the line a little, but an average of 2.16 xGF across the last three games demonstrated that they can attack when they need to. Throw in Celta’s 1.44 xGA at home last term and you can see why Infogol favours Simeone’s charges.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 9.208/1
Barcelona to gain respite from off-field distractions
Barcelona v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 19:00
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With all the coverage of Lionel Messi moving to Paris Saint-Germain, you could be forgiven for forgetting Barcelona have a match to play on Sunday. A home meeting with Real Sociedad could bring a debut for summer signing Memphis, if he’s registered in time, and the Blaugrana are expected to secure a repeat of last season’s narrow victory over Imanol Alguacil’s side.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.809/1
Rayo to endure baptism of fire
Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 21:15
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A trip to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán is not exactly a simple task in Rayo’s first game back in La Liga, with no team allowing fewer home xGA than Sevilla’s 0.99 per game. The hosts have lost Bryan to Tottenham, though Erik Lamela will add experience and a solid set of pre-season results bodes well for a team which finished just nine points off the top of the table last season.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 6.4011/2
Villarreal to bounce back from Super Cup disappointment
Villarreal v Granada
Monday, 19:00
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After losing on penalties to Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup, Villarreal have a chance to show their freshness against Granada. The visitors endured a tough end to the 2020-21 campaign, averaging 1.67 xGA across their last six games and earning just four points, and an away average of 2.15 xGA per game last season doesn’t bode well ahead of the new campaign.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.4013/2
Athletic to win low-scoring game at Elche
Elche v Athletic Bilbao
Monday, 21:00
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Elche beat Athletic on the final day of last season to clinch safety, and the visitors will be out for revenge at Manuel Martínez Valero on Monday night. The hosts have made some interesting signings, including a permanent move for last season’s top scorer Lucas Boyé, but a league-worst 0.89 xGF per game at home last season explains why Infogol is backing the visitors here.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 9.6017/2
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
