Bundesliga Season Preview: Silva can strike gold with Leipzig

Bayern aren’t good value for title tilt

It’s been a summer of change in the German top-flight, with last season’s top six all starting the 2021/22 campaign with new coaches at the helm. Record champions Bayern, who are going for a tenth consecutive meisterschale, lost Hansi Flick to the German national team. Their response was to recruit RB Leipzig’s Julian Nagelsmann, a Bavarian native who is regarded as one of the world’s brightest football minds.

Nagelsmann takes over a side that became a winning machine under Flick, but not all of the nuts and bolts are attached quite as securely as they once were. The world-class talent remains – Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Müller, Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich will all be regular starters – but there is a fear among Bayern fans that the squad is thinner than it has been for a while.

French defender Dayot Upamecano has made the same journey as Nagelsmann, but the loss of David Alaba and Jerome Boateng in the same window will pile the pressure on the likes of Niklas Süle, Lucas Hernandez and French youngster Tanguy Nianzou in central defence. Süle lost his form last term, Hernandez has been plagued by injury, and Nianzou is talented but inexperienced.

The agreement of Kimmich’s new contract is a huge boost, and Bayern are keen to tie up a similar deal for his midfield partner and business partner Leon Goretzka. A mooted move for RB Leipzig midfielder Marcel Sabitzer would provide much-needed depth, and the Austrian is a favourite of Nagelsmann, but Leipzig will be reluctant to lose him to a rival.

With funds being poured into the extension of existing contracts, Bayern need young attacking midfielder Jamal Musiala to kick on this season, they need Serge Gnabry to recapture his best form, and they need Leroy Sane to justify Bayern’s risky decision to pay him a high wage that has ruffled a few feathers in the camp.

With Lewandowski having scored a record-breaking 41 league goals last term, and a core of proven winners to rely on, Bayern are fair favourites. However, the question marks are bigger than usual.

Bayern’s traditional foes in recent seasons have been Borussia Dortmund, but Die Schwarzgelben finished third last term, and have lost the outstanding Jadon Sancho to Manchester United. That’s a huge source of goals and assists that has left the building, and the England winger’s connection with star striker Erling Haaland can’t be overestimated. With BVB loath to allow two superstars to leave in one window, Norwegian goal-getter Haaland is set to play what is probably his last campaign in the Bundesliga before his release clause kicks in. Given that he scored 27 goals in 28 league appearances last term, a Haaland in “win now” mode is a fearsome prospect for defences across the league.

Dutch international Donyell Malen has been brought in from PSV to mitigate the loss of Sancho, and the imposing Gregor Kobel is the new number one after joining from Stuttgart. Axel Witsel will feel like a new signing after missing months of last season with an Achilles injury, while 16-year-old striking prodigy Youssoufa Moukoko hopes to make further progress.

The concern is over whether new boss Marco Rose can implement his ideas quickly and effectively, and whether he can win over a group of players that really took to his predecessor Edin Terzic. Dortmund won the DFB Cup under Terzic, who will stay at the club as technical director. Borussia Mönchengladbach’s dismal league form under Rose last season has rather tarnished his reputation, and he has to hit the ground running.

Rose is a native of Leipzig, and that’s a city that has a right to be excited about another title push. Nagelsmann’s RB pushed Bayern hard for a while last term, and the arrival of American coach Jesse Marsch doesn’t necessarily mean the Red Bulls can’t bid to win the league again. Marsch has worked as an assistant at Leipzig, and he delivered league and cup success at Leipzig’s fellow Red Bull-backed club Salzburg.

The acquisition of Eintracht Frankfurt striker Andre Silva feels significant. The Portuguese international rattled in 28 Bundesliga goals last term (only Lewandowski had a better record), and he will give Leipzig a focal point in attack. Dani Olmo will need a rest after playing for Spain at Euro 2020 and the Olympics, but when he’s fit, he’ll make a big difference. Forward Brian Brobbey is an interesting capture from Ajax, and young defenders Josko Gvardiol and Mohamed Simakan are rated highly. The retention of keeper Peter Gulacsi is a welcome boost, and rampaging left-back Angelino has a shot at redemption after falling out with Nagelsmann last term.

There’s plenty of quality in midfield. Konrad Laimer will be raring to go after missing pretty much the whole of last season, Emil Forsberg and Kevin Kampl can pull the strings, and Christopher Nkunku is an underrated performer. If Sabitzer does stay, his leadership and technique will be valuable.

Leipzig finished second last season, and have enough quality and depth to push for the title.

Their price to win the title has come in to 10.09/1 on the Exchange, and I think that’s a value option as a back-to-lay. Most of Leipzig’s first nine games are relatively benign, and include home matches against promoted sides Bochum and Greuther Furth. If they can avoid defeat in their home game against Bayern on Matchday Four, they’ll be in good shape.

Leipzig are a bigger 14/1 on the Sportsbook, and that seems too big to me. With a top goalkeeper, a proven goalscorer and an excellent midfield, Leipzig can be involved in the title race. Bayern are 1/7 on the Sportsbook and 1.282/7 on the Exchange, and that holds little appeal given the lack of depth in the squad and the change of coach. Nagelsmann is an incredibly talented tactician and leader, but he is yet to prove he can win trophies, and although I believe he’s the real deal we don’t yet know if his players agree with me. Dortmund are 7/1 on the Sportsbook and 8.07/1 on the Exchange, and given that I don’t see much to choose between Dortmund and Leipzig, I’m happy to go for the bigger prices and back Leipzig.

If you want an alternative approach, you could back Leipzig in the Winner Without Bayern market, but at time of writing, there is no liquidity.

Fourth spot down to Rhineland rivals again

With Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig all regulars in the top four, the final spot has often been a toss-up between Bayer Leverkusen and their neighbours Borussia Mönchengladbach. Wolfsburg broke up that duopoly last term as they gate-crashed the party with an extremely solid season under wily coach Oliver Glasner. However, Glasner’s difficult relationship with the club’s powerbrokers has seen him switch to Eintracht Frankfurt, and his replacement Mark van Bommel has had a tough pre-season littered with defeats.

Glasner’s coaching was the star last term, and if young centre-back Maxence Lacroix is snapped up by RB Leipzig or a Premier League side, that will be a major problem. Dutch striker Wout Weghorst can always be relied upon to score in volume, but the Wolves need to find other sources of goals. It’s also worth considering that VFL had no European entanglements last term, but they now have a Champions League campaign to contend with.

Borussia Mönchengladbach have brought in ex-Frankfurt boss Adi Hütter, but there are question marks over a number of their players. Marcus Thuram, Alassane Plea and Denis Zakaria have all been linked with moves away from the club, while Germany defender Matthias Ginter has just a year left on his deal. There is however the bonus of failing to qualify for Europe last term, which means Hütter has free weeks to bed down his tactics.

Bayer Leverkusen have work to do in the transfer market. They have sold Jamaican winger Leon Bailey to Aston Villa, the Bender twins have retired from the pro game (they are still turning out in the ninth division), and Demarai Gray’s stay in the Rheinland lasted just six months. However, coach Gerry Seoane arrives with a glowing reputation from Young Boys, and the acquisition of 20-year-old Brugge defender Odilon Kossounou is exciting. Florian Wirtz remains one of the most thrilling young talents in the league, and Patrik Schick appears set to spearhead the attack after an excellent Euro 2020 with the Czech Republic.

Wait for the Top 4 market to become active on the Sportbook, and use that time to assess any further transfer activity, but I would say that Bayer Leverkusen are better placed to snatch fourth than either Wolfsburg or Gladbach.

Greuther aren’t great

I’m usually keen to see how clubs adapt to life in the Bundesliga before I judge whether they might go down, but I’m happy to tip Greuther Fürth for immediate relegation, after they finished second in the second tier last term. Last season’s top scorer Branimir Hrgota has an awful scoring record in Germany’s top flight, and Norwegian Havard Nielsen didn’t make an impact in the Bundesliga with Freiburg.

Greuther Fürth’s transfer business has been largely limited to loans and free transfers, and they have lost key players like David Raum (left-back), Anton Stach (Mainz) and Sebastian Ernst (Hannover). Boss Stefan Leitl has no Bundesliga experience as a coach, and staying up feels like a really tall order.

Like Fürth, Bochum surprised everyone by winning promotion, as giants like Hamburg choked again. Their transfers have been more impressive than Fürth’s – Elvis Rexhbecaj and Eduard Löwen have both impressed at times in the top flight, and Takuma Asano, Michael Esser and Christopher Antwi-Adjei all have Bundesliga experience. However, star player Robert Zulj has been lured to the UAE, and it’s difficult to see how Bochum will replace his goals and assists.

With Greuther Fürth and Bochum expected to struggle, there won’t be many other clubs in danger, but I suspect Arminia Bielefeld may suffer from second-season syndrome. Star player Ritsu Doan has gone back to PSV, and despite the arrival of Holstein Kiel striker Janni Serra, I just don’t know where the goals are going to come from. Keep an eye on the Relegation market when it becomes active, but if Arminia are attractively priced, I would back them to go down.