Malmo look good value at 9/5 to collect the most cards in Tuesday’s Champions League qualifier away to HJK Helsinki. Andy Schooler explains why.
HJK Helsinki v Malmo FF
Tuesday 27 July, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video
Malmo look a big price at 9/5 to pick up the most cards in Tuesday’s Champions League qualifier away to HJK Helsinki.
The Swedes lead the tie 2-1 following last week’s home leg, a match which saw Malmo commit the most fouls (16-11) and collect the most cards (2-1).
Their card record domestically is unusually strong for a team leading the league. They’ve received 27 yellow cards in 13 Allsvenskan games so far – the third-most in the division.
That contrasts with HJK, who are top of the fair play table in Finland’s Veikkausliiga.
Given there’s also the possibility of Malmo looking to see out this game by fair means or foul if they manage to take their slender lead into the second half, it’s a struggle to see why they are considerable underdogs in the card index match bet (HJK are odds-on at 5/6).
With Stuart Attwell being the referee, there should be plenty of cards – he’s shown at least four in his last four UEFA club appointments and was the second-strictest official in the England Premier League last season.
And the more cards there are, the more likely it is to see the long-term trends come to the surface.
Those trends suggest the 9/5 is too big and it should be backed accordingly.
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Source: Betfair Champions League
