Saturday Football Tips: Shots and cards bets for Champions League final

Man City v Chelsea
Champions League final
Saturday 29 May, 20:00 BST kick-off
Live on BT Sport

It’s one of the biggest footballing occasions of the year and a massive betting heat, so let’s turn our statistical eye on the Champions League final between Manchester City and Chelsea in Portugal.

It should be a tight and tense affair at the Estadio do Dragao in Porto for the third all-English final, with City in their first ever and Chelsea in their third final holding a 1-1 record in the previous two.

Both of the Blues’ Champions League final appearances have been settled on penalties – this again could go all the way and it’s 5.59/2 that it’s settled by spot-kicks. That would mean City’s 40-game run without a draw finally came to an end though.

Pep Guardiola’s side have won 11 of 12 Champions League games this season, scoring early before the 20-minute mark in six of those, but for in-play purposes they’ve also won six of the last seven games in this competition when they’ve gone behind.

If, however, Chelsea can get ahead by the break, they’ll have confidence of seeing it through as they’ve led at the break in seven of their eight wins in Europe this season.

They’re 5.04/1 to be leading after 45 minutes here but given that record you could opt to plump for the 8.07/1 on Chelsea/Chelsea in the double result.

Recent form would tell you otherwise though, as Chelsea haven’t scored a first-half goal in their last five games. The half-time draw at 2.111/10 still seems the most likely outcome.

Underlying all this though is the fact that the team scoring first has won the last six Champions League finals, and 12 of the previous 14.

Neither side have conceded more than a single goal in a Champions League game this season – just another stat adding to the thought process that goals will be scarce on Saturday night.

Best player prop bets

So among the plethora of bets you can get stuck into for the final, where should we head? Well, with such a high stakes game and with referee Antonio Mateu Lahoz prolific in dishing out cards, the bookings market is as good a place to start as any.

Cesar Azpilicueta has seven bookings and one red this season, he’ll be up against City’s mobile attacking unit and will see a lot of Phil Foden’s dribbling skills. His price of 3.613/5 to be booked has appeal.

For City, although it’s tough to second guess Guardiola, Bernardo Silva has a great chance of starting, will be keen to impress back home in Portugal and is one of his manager’s chief ‘tactical foul’ makers and a true wind-up merchant.

He’s got eight bookings this season, including one against Chelsea, but is a tasty 4.03/1 to be booked due to the doubts over his starting place.

Both men to be booked is a whopping 18.49.

There may not be too many shots on target to speak of given the level of both defences, but a couple of young England stars can provide us with a great priced double.

Phil Foden averages 1.11 shots on target per 90 minutes but in the Champions League he’s been something else – with 17 shots on target in 12 matches and five in the two games against PSG.

He’s 3.613/5 to get two shots on target in, and given he’ll spearhead a lot of the City attacks, and his ability in and around the box to beat a man and get a shot off that’s something that’s well achievable.

Chelsea’s Mason Mount has been letting it fly of late, with 17 shots in his last five games resulting in six shots on target – he’s often been the difference for the Blues this season and he’s a decent enough 1.84/5 to register a single shot on target for Thomas Tuchel’s side.

That double pays out at just over 7.613/2