After a hattrick of wins last week, Nathan Joyes returns as the group stage comes to an end. Who will qualify for the knock-out stages and who will fall at the final hurdle? Our South American expert reveals all…
Junior to restore Colombian pride
Sante Fe v Junior
Tue, 23:15
Live on Betfair
Sante Fe. Oh, Sante Fe. The Colombian side were gifted a golden opportunity to give themselves a chance of qualifying when it was announced River Plate only had eleven players and no goalkeepers due to an outbreak of covid.
Sante Fe, who had previously held River Plate to a 0-0 draw at home, knew three points would keep them within a chance of staying in the Copa Libertadores or at the very least head into the next round of the Copa Sudamericana.
Instead, they embarrassed themselves and lost 2-1. Their late consolation was the first time they even tested Enzo Perez, who normally plies his trade in the centre of midfield, not in between the sticks.
As a result of their defeat, they can no longer qualify for either tournament. On the other hand, their Colombian rivals, Junior, can.
Sitting on six points, Junior do require a huge favour from the depleted River Plate to get a result in Brazil against Fluminense in order to qualify for the next round of the Copa Libertadores.
It won’t be a tragedy if they don’t, as they’ll finish third and head into the Sudamericana, but whilst there’s a chance, they must take it.
Having previously drawn with Sante Fe earlier in the competition 0-0, Junior must better that result on Tuesday. However, with the incentive of carrying on their Copa Libertadores dream, and with Sante Fe focusing back on domestic football, it feels only right to back the away side in this fixture.
Junior will be riding high, as well, having just beaten Fluminense 2-1 in their own back yard, and having lost only once in the group stage, Junior will fancy their chances.
It’s difficult to know what kind of side Sante Fe will field, but Junior opened at 2.111/10 and they are now as low as 1.625/8. I’m recommending using the Bet Builder to combine a Junior win and under 3.5 goals at 2.47/5 with the away side needing the full three points.
Brazilians to turn it on
Internacional v Always Ready
Wed, 23:00
Live on Betfair
Group B has been full of goals. In fact, after five games, it could be a group record, with 77 scored between the four teams.
Last week, I tipped up Táchira to beat Always Ready, but I wasn’t expecting a 7-2 mauling. I had previously tipped up Internacional to beat Olimpia Asuncion at home, which they did, 6-1.
You can probably gather from the above that I am heavily for goals in this encounter. Although qualification is all but secure due to their superior goal difference, Internacional will need to match or better Táchira’s result when they face Olimpia, but having lost both matches out of Venezuela, its likely a win for the Brazilians will see them top the group.
In the reverse fixture, Always Ready “shocked” everyone, beating Internacional 2-0. If you’ve previously read my columns, you’ll know how much I talk about the advantage Bolivian teams have at home, playing over 2000m above sea level. The high altitude is unplayable for other sides. But when they leave their native country, they struggle. Really struggle.
I’m expecting a demolition job for Internacional, who will be seeking revenge for their defeat in Bolivia, and I really believe Always Ready will fold, and may even finish the match with 10 players or less.
With Internacional 1/10, the best value is for the home side to be winning at HT and over 2.5 goals at 1.9720/21 with the bet builder option. I’ll throw two-points at that selection.
In fact, I’ll add in over 5.5 goals at 7.06/1 with a 0.5 stake, over 6.5 goals at 13.012/1 and over 7.5 goals at 21.020/1 both 0.25 stake each. Internacional have 10 home goals in two matches, who’s saying there won’t be more to come? Call me bonkers, but there’s a strong possibility of a massacre.
Boca to embarrass Bolivians
Boca Juniors v The Strongest
Thu, 01:00
Live on Betfair
It won’t be a good week for Bolivian football, that I can assure you. The Strongest, in their defence, have kept their qualification hopes alive right until the last match – and in this group, that is one hell of an achievement.
But it has been their home form which has served them well with, yes, you’ve guessed it, altitude playing a vital factor. But one team who didn’t struggle in La Paz was Boca Juniors, who came out of Bolivia’s oven with all three points after a 1-0 win.
Back on home soil, Boca don’t necessarily need the three points if results go their way, but they won’t be taking any chances, and one of the favourites to go on and lift the trophy can pull their opponents to pieces.
On the road, The Strongest have lost 4-0 to Barcelona and 5-0 to Santos, whilst Boca drew 0-0 with Ecuadorian side, as well as beating Santos 2-0 in their two home matches to date. A pattern has continued with The Strongest once again away from home in this competition, currently on an eight-game losing streak, and it seems to be a question of how many for Boca on Thursday.
But I’m here for value, and although Boca to win to nil at 1.664/6 is short, it’s still worthy of a one-point stake, but I’ll also back Boca -2 on the handicap at 2.111/10, also with a one-point stake.
Source: BetFair Tips
