Serie A Tips: Milan can crumble in Bergamo

“Inter and Atalanta are in the Champions League, and now Milan, Juventus and Napoli will duke it out for the other two spots. Two teams that wanted to leave the competition, another that was offended not to have been asked”

Rossoneri ruined in Bergamo

Atalanta v Milan
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

This final day of the season is fraught with danger. We know who will be relegated, we know too which team will end as Champions, and the European story is much clearer than it looked a couple of weeks ago. Inter and Atalanta are in the Champions League, and now Milan, Juventus and Napoli will duke it out for the other two spots. Two teams that wanted to leave the competition, another that was offended not to have been asked. Forgive me for not caring TOO much.

It’s a conundrum, this game. We have a Milan team with so much to play for, against an Atalanta side who are sure of their place in the Champions League, but who won’t want to throw away a second placed finish in Serie A, and who, after their Coppa Italia final defeat by Juventus, will be motivated I think to end the season on a high, with a high-profile win.

Well though Cagliari played last week at San Siro, Milan were noticeably poor, struggling for inspiration in the final third, and missing Zlatan Ibrahimovic more than ever. They have had some outstanding performers in this campaign, but Franck Kessie struggled to lift them, Hakan Calhanoglu looked leg weary, and there was a general air of desperation about them.

The question that we must ask ourselves is whether six days is long enough for them to have rediscovered their mojo, and I don’t think that it is. They will not be short of effort and intent, but if Atalanta are anywhere near their best, then they could overrun Milan, and they look too big at 2.77/4 to do so.

De Zerbi out in style

Sassuolo v Lazio
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video

Lazio will finish sixth, comfortably ahead of Roma, and Sassuolo have the chance to win this and leapfrog Roma into a seventh placed finish, one that would bring a European qualifying place. That would be a just reward for another excellent season from Roberto De Zerbi, and given how tired Lazio have looked this past week, I think that Sassuolo are terrific value at 2.01/1 to win and give themselves a chance of seventh.

De Zerbi’s side have won six of their last eight, and done so in real style. Giacomo Raspadori’s goals have been a bonus, and Mimmo Berardi’s sixteen have equalled his career best. They’re an easy team to like, Sassuolo, with Manuel Locatelli supremely easy on the eye in midfield, and Francesco Caputo such a likeable old soldier too.

Lazio have won only 1 of their last 4, and that was a struggle against an awful Parma. They looked shattered against Roma, likewise against Torino in the week, and I suspect that their race is run, which makes Sassuolo the bet in De Zerbi’s final game.

Sardinians end strong

Cagliari v Genoa
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video

I was commentating on Cagliari’s trip to San Siro last Sunday night, and I must confess that, when I heard the news of Crotone’s late equaliser against Benevento, the goal that ensured Cagliari’s safety, I fully expected Milan to push on and win comfortably. Cagliari could party, Milan had everything to play for. In the end, though, the Sardinians should have won the game, but battled hard for a famous point and now will be keen to set the seal on their season.

There are too many professionals in that Cagliari dressing room for this game to turn into a walk in the park. Genoa will bring something to the table, but their season hit the skids a month ago, and they’ve now lost three of their last four. They’ve done well to survive themselves, and Davide Ballardini once again deserves the praise that will come his way, but I think that Cagliari are on a roll and will have too much for them here.