Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga scoreline predictions with three teams at risk of final-day relegation…
“Köln could still find themselves relegated even with a victory on Saturday, but Friedhelm Funkel’s team have the easiest fixture of the three teams at risk of dropping down to 2. Bundesliga.”
Bayern to complete unbeaten home campaign
Bayern Munich v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Augsburg’s safety-sealing victory last weekend is all the more important, given the fixture list. Champions Bayern have 12 wins and four draws from their 16 home games this season, averaging 2.64 xGF at the Allianz Arena, and Infogol’s model expects another home victory against visitors who will be happy to have avoided a tense final day.
Dortmund to finish with seventh straight win
Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
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Borussia Dortmund have done things the hard way, but they’ll be playing Champions League football again next season regardless of what happens this weekend. Infogol backs Edin Terzić’s final game as manager to end in victory, with a season-long average of 1.09 xGA at Signal Iduna Park suggesting things will be tough for a Leverkusen side already assured of another Europa League campaign in 2021/22.
Frankfurt to rebound from Schalke heartbreak
Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Eintracht Frankfurt’s top-four hopes went up in smoke at the Veltins-Arena last weekend, with Schalke scoring four after registering their highest single-game xGF return of the entire season. Adi Hütter’s men are still guaranteed fifth place, though, and can clinch the still-impressive feat of a whole season unbeaten at home if the game goes according to Infogol’s model and ends in victory for the hosts.
Köln to keep survival hopes alive
Köln v Schalke
Saturday, 14:30
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Köln could still find themselves relegated even with a victory on Saturday, but Friedhelm Funkel’s team have the easiest fixture of the three teams at risk of dropping down to 2. Bundesliga. The visitors haven’t won on the road all season, with a league-worst 2.16 xGA average away from home, and Infogol expects the hosts to get the three points which could yet keep them alive.
Hoffenheim to take the points in dead rubber
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Hertha Berlin have now confirmed their survival, so won’t need anything from their trip to Rhein-Neckar Arena. That’s just as well, given their opponents’ recent record, and Hoffenheim can end the campaign by completing a seventh game without defeat. Infogol’s model doesn’t anticipate many goals – Hertha’s 1.08 away xGF average plays a part here – but the home side are expected to win.
Arminia to fall short in final game
Stuttgart v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Stuttgart were one of two teams to beat Arminia last season as both won promotion, and Frank Kramer’s team are now at the mercy of opponents who have adjusted far better to Bundesliga life. The hosts have won their last two, and Infogol’s model expects an away average of 0.88 xGF to count against the visitors as they chase a win which could keep them in the division.
Leipzig to threaten Union’s European hopes
Union Berlin v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 14:30
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An eighth home victory of the season will guarantee Union a spot in next season’s Europa Conference League, but it won’t be easy. Opponents Leipzig have dropped off of late, winning just one of their last four in the league, but Infogol backs an away xGA average of just 0.84 to carry the visitors to victory against a home side with one of the worst xGF returns in the top half of the table.
Gladbach to ratchet up Werder’s relegation nerves
Werder Bremen v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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If Union slip up then Gladbach can still salvage a European place, and the dire form of opponents Werder will give the visitors some hope. The hosts stayed alive with a final-day victory last season, but haven’t won at Weserstadion since February – averaging 0.81 xGF across their last five home and away in the league – and Infogol’s model sides with the away team.
Wolfsburg to round off an impressive home campaign at Wolkswagen-Arena
Wolfsburg v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Wolfsburg are already guaranteed their best points return since 2014/15, clinching a Champions League return in the process, and can go out on a high by beating Mainz. The away side saw a long unbeaten run ended by Dortmund last weekend, and are still likely to put up a fight if recent displays are anything to go by, but Infogol backs Oliver Glasner’s men to win at Volkswagen-Arena for the 11th time this term.
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Source: BetFair Tips
