Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as Real Madrid attempt to keep their title hopes alive…
“A trip to San Mamés isn’t the easiest fixture for Real Madrid as they attempt to chase down neighbours Atlético, but a convincing win at Granada in midweek will make Zinedine Zidane’s team feel they can do the business.”
Alavés to confirm survival with a game to spare
Alavés v Granada
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Javier Calleja’s appointment looks to have done the trick for Alavés, with his team on the verge of survival after a solid run of form. Victory over Granada will seal the deal, and Infogol’s model anticipates them gaining the upper hand against opponents whose away average of 2.12 xGA is the worst in all of La Liga.
Real Madrid to take title race to final day
Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A trip to San Mamés isn’t the easiest fixture for Real Madrid as they attempt to chase down neighbours Atlético, but a convincing win at Granada in midweek will make Zinedine Zidane’s team feel they can do the business. Athletic have the best home xGA record in the league, but no one has more points on the road than Los Blancos, and Infogol gives Zidane’s men a narrow edge.
Atléti to move closer to title glory
Atlético Madrid v Osasuna
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Two wins from the final two games will guarantee Atlético Madrid the title, and they might not even need that much. A league-best home record means the meeting with Osasuna could end up being more straightforward than a final day meeting with a Valladolid side potentially fighting for their lives, and Infogol’s model backs Diego Simeone’s side to go into the finale with the upper hand.
Barcelona to keep top of the table interesting
Barcelona v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A draw with Celta Vigo in June 2020 derailed Barça’s title challenge last season, and Ronald Koeman will hope the same fate doesn’t befall his side at Camp Nou. Koeman’s side lost ground by surrendering a midweek lead at Levante – a game which they dominated in xG terms – and will need some help to stay in the title race. However, Infogol expects them to take the points in their penultimate game.
Cádiz to doom Elche to life in second tier
Cádiz v Elche
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
This time last year, Cádiz and Elche were both mounting promotion pushes, but Álvaro Cervera’s side look likely to be the only one of the two teams to stick around for a second straight top-flight season. Victory for the hosts will relegate Fran Escribá’s team, who sit three points below 17th-place Huesca with an inferior head-to-head record, and Infogol’s model backs the home side to outscore a team averaging 1.84 xGA per game away from home.
Getafe to ease relegation concerns
Getafe v Levante
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A run of three straight defeats has left things a little too close for comfort as far as Getafe are concerned, but while all three have come without a goal for Pepe Bordalás’ side, the underlying numbers have been improving. The hosts’ home defence remains among the league’s stingiest in xGA terms, and they are expected to have too much for Levante despite Paco López’s side hitting three against Barcelona on Tuesday night.
Betis to ramp up Huesca’s relegation concerns
Real Betis v Huesca
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Back-to-back home victories have lifted Huesca out of the bottom three for the first time in a month, but Pacheta’s team may see a final day meeting with Valencia at El Alcoraz as the more winnable of their remaining fixtures, given their poor away record. Betis can still finish fifth, and Infogol’s model backs Manuel Pellegrini’s side to win a second straight home game themselves.
Real Sociedad to leave Valladolid in the mire
Real Sociedad v Real Valladolid
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
After missing a couple of presentable opportunities to get points on the board, Valladolid have a tougher task now against Real Sociedad. Imanol Alguacil’s hosts are averaging 2.09 xGF at home – one of the best records in the league – and the visitors’ 0.84 xGF return at home means taking anything from the trip to San Sebastián will be a tough task.
Eibar to take relegation fight to the final day
Valencia v Eibar
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Seven points from three games have left Eibar with a chance to escape the bottom three with victory in Valencia, if other results go their way. The hosts have been solid at the Mestalla this term, but José Luis Mendilibar’s men took a point in the reverse fixture, and Infogol suggests there is very little to choose between the two sides in Sunday’s meeting.
Sevilla to damage Villarreal’s European charge
Villarreal v Sevilla
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Villarreal’s midweek win at Valladolid kept their hopes of a Europa League return alive, but Unai Emery’s side may have one eye on the final of this year’s competition ahead of Sevilla’s visit to Estadio de la Cerámica. The visitors have lost just one of their last nine away games, and Infogol’s model backs them to take the points and ensure they finish this season with their best ever La Liga points tally.
***
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
