Get tips from our football experts on Saturday as Chelsea play Leicester in the FA Cup final as well as the best of the action in the Premier League, Serie A and Bundesliga…
Freiburg v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Bayern Munich have already wrapped up the Bundesliga title for the ninth season in a row but now they are chasing team and individual records.
Key Stat: Bayern have won four of their last five matches scoring 13 goals in the process.
Tom Victor says: “Bayern sealed the title in style last week, putting six past Borussia Mönchengladbach, and still need eight goals from their last two games to match last season’s Bundesliga tally.
“Hansi Flick won’t want to leave off the back of successive away defeats, and Infogol’s model expects his team to avoid such a fate against opponents yet to beat Bayern in nine attempts since winning promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016.”
The match is also discussed on this week’s Football…Only Bettor podcast where guest Mark Stinchcombe said:
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lewandowski score a brace. Bayern to win and both teams to score is 2.111/10 with Bet Builder and, given Bayern are trying to help Lewandowski get the record, I think they’ll go all-out attack. They’re chasing the record for team goals in a Bundesliga season too.”
Hertha Berlin v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
The Bundesliga relegation battle is very tight. Schalke are already down but any one of five teams could join them in the second tier. Two of them meet on Saturday afternoon so expect a nervy match with Hertha and Koln both fighting for survival.
Key Stat: Between them Hertha (50) and Koln (60) have conceded 110 goals in the Bundesliga this season.
Kevin Hatchard says: “I’m incredibly surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals trading at 2.0521/20 here, as neither team has defended well all season. Eleven of Hertha’s 16 league games at the Olympiastadion have featured at least three goals, while eight of Köln’s last ten matches have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.
“If you look at Köln’s road matches, they are usually highly entertaining – eight of the last 10 have featured three goals or more, and three of those have actually seen an Over 4.5 Goals bet land.
“Hertha are a bit light in attack after injuries to Matheus Cunha, Jhon Cordoba and Krzsystof Piatek, but youngster Jessic Ngankam got the winner against Schalke, and has also scored against Bayern this season. On the Köln side of things, centre-forward Sebastian Andersson is finally fit after a troublesome bone edema, and scored a fine goal against Freiburg.”
Kevin’s bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals in Hertha Berlin v Köln at 2.0421/20
Juventus v Inter
17:00
Live on Premier Sports 2
Now this should be good. Deposed champions Juventus, who are out to 3.55/2 for a top four finish, at home to the newly-crowned champions Inter in the Derby d’Italia. Antonio Conte, who used to manage Juve, has said there will be no let up from his Inter side in their remaining fixtures and few would doubt him. They would love to harm Juve’s chances of Champions League football next season.
Key Stat: Inter are unbeaten in 17. The last team to beat them were Juventus.
Tom Victor says: “Having already clinched the Scudetto, Antonio Conte can deal his former side’s top four hopes a potentially fatal blow with victory in Turin.
“However, despite Inter’s four successive victories, Infogol favours a Juve side who know nothing short of a win is likely to be enough, and who have the best home xGA record in all of the division.
Tom’s bet: Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Chelsea v Leicester City
Saturday, 17:15
Live on BBC One
Last year’s runners up Chelsea come into the FA Cup final as firm favourites although their midweek defeat to Arsenal has meant their match odds are longer than we might have expected at 1.9720/21. Leicester are 4.3100/30 to win inside 90 minutes as they seek the first FA Cup in their history (they have been runners up four times).
Key Stat: Chelsea have kept clean sheets in 18 of their 25 games under Thomas Tuchel’s management.
Alex Keble says: “The only teams to have beaten Chelsea under Thomas Tuchel, FC Porto and West Brom, did so by playing an aggressive and physically confrontational game while focusing their attacks down the flanks, behind the two Chelsea wing-backs. Unfortunately for Leicester fans, Brendan Rodgers doesn’t tend to play like this at all.
“Leicester, who look fatigued at the end of a long season, will not be able to break through the structured and controlling possession of a refreshed Chelsea side that rested all of Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, and Jorginho for the 2-1 win over Man City last weekend. Their narrow attacking lines in a 3-4-1-2 clash with Chelsea’s compressed and midfield-heavy shape, which should create the sort of claustrophobic contest that favours the rhythms of Tuchel’s football.
“Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho may be able to make good runs on the outside of the Chelsea centre-backs, but more likely Leicester’s two-man midfield will be overwhelmed by the box-shape of Chelsea’s. What’s more, without Jonny Evans Leicester were easily to cut through in the 4-2 defeat to Newcastle; if Wilson can get in behind the Foxes’ defence, then Timo Werner should flourish.”
You can also read Andy Schooler’s in-depth match preview and get his recommended bet.
Alex’s bet: Back Chelsea to beat Leicester at 1.9720/21
Roma v Lazio
Saturday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A derby in the Italian capital is the occasion for Paulo Fonseca’s final home game in charge of Roma before Jose Mourinho takes over in the summer. What’s more, a win for the hosts would see Fonseca’s men end their local rivals’ top four hopes.
Key Stat: Roma haven’t beaten Lazio since 2018 when they triumphed 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico. Since then there have been two wins for Lazio and two draws.
Tom Victor says: “Maximum points from their final three games would give Lazio an outside chance of a top four finish, but the defeat in Florence last weekend was realistically decisive.
“Roma can make it official with a derby victory, though it won’t be enough for them to catch their rivals, and a home average of 2.11 xGF plays its part in Infogol backing Paulo Fonseca to win his final game in charge at the Olimpico.”
Tom’s bet: Back the 2-1 @ 12.50
Brighton v West Ham
Saturday May 15, 20:00
Sky Sports
West Ham hope to get their top-four challenge back on track with a positive performance at Brighton on Saturday night. The Hammers are 21.020/1 to finish in the Champions League places but victory on the south coast would get them to within three points of Chelsea with two to play.
Key Stat: Brighton have kept six clean sheets in their nine home Premier League matches in 2021.
Mark O’Haire says: “Brighton’s fixtures have tended to be relatively tight affairs. Albion’s outings have averaged 2.20 goals across the campaign with fewer than half paying out for Over 2.5 Goals 2.0621/20 backers. Even so, Both Teams To Score 1.824/5 has proven to be the right selection in seven of the Seagulls’ 12 tussles with top-seven dwellers, firing only three blanks of their own.
“West Ham have been good fun to follow this season, particularly away from the London Stadium where 12/17 Premier League matches have featured Over 2.5 Goals and 10/17 matches have paid out in the Both Teams To Score column. The visitors have scored in 13 of those games, averaging an impressive 1.53 goals per-game on the road.
“With that in mind, plus the prospect of Brighton playing with more freedom following confirmation of their Premier League survival, I’m anticipating an enjoyable encounter from the south coast with BTTS the standout selection at 1.824/5.”
Mark’s bet: Back Both Teams To Score at 1.824/5
Source: BetFair Tips
