Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides scoreline predictions from Serie A as Juve take on their former boss Antonio Conte’s Inter…
“Having already clinched the Scudetto, Antonio Conte can deal his former side’s top four hopes a potentially fatal blow with victory in Turin.”
Atalanta to hold onto second spot
Genoa v Atalanta
Saturday, 14:00
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Three more points will be enough for Atalanta to secure Champions League qualification, thanks to their strong head-to-head record against their rivals, but they’ll be made to work against a Genoa side who shut them out in January. The hosts have averaged just 1.34 xGF per game at home, though, and Atalanta more than doubled that in their last away game in Serie A.
Torino to triumph in six-pointer
Spezia v Torino
Saturday, 14:00
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If the game between Spezia and Torino doesn’t end all-square, the winner will have guaranteed their top-flight safety. The visitors are coming off a 7-0 humbling at home to AC Milan, but Infogol’s model still gives them the narrowest of edges at Alberto Picco. Davide Nicola’s side have more points on the road than they do at home this term, and this could end up making the difference.
Juve to get the better of former boss Conte
Juventus v Inter Milan
Saturday, 17:00
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Having already clinched the Scudetto, Antonio Conte can deal his former side’s top four hopes a potentially fatal blow with victory in Turin. However, despite Inter’s four successive victories, Infogol favours a Juve side who know nothing short of a win is likely to be enough, and who have the best home xGA record in all of the division.
Derby defeat to end Lazio’s Champions League hopes
Roma v Lazio
Saturday, 19:45
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Maximum points from their final three games would give Lazio an outside chance of a top four finish, but the defeat in Florence last weekend was realistically decisive. Roma can make it official with a derby victory, though it won’t be enough for them to catch their rivals, and a home average of 2.11 xGF plays its part in Infogol backing Paulo Fonseca to win his final game in charge at the Olimpico.
Napoli to take top four race to the wire
Fiorentina v Napoli
Sunday, 11:30
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Napoli have come into form at the right time, averaging 2.36 xGF across their last five games and claiming 13 points in the process. They’ll need to keep it up to guarantee a Champions League spot, though – especially if Juventus win on Saturday – but Infogol doesn’t expect Rino Gattuso’s side to face too much difficulty at Artemio Franchi after putting six past Fiorentina earlier in the season.
Benevento to reignite survival hopes
Benevento v Crotone
Sunday, 14:00
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After a dreadful run plunged them into the bottom three, Benevento have perhaps the best fixture they could have asked for this weekend. Pippo Inzaghi’s team need to stop the rot to give themselves a chance going into the final weekend of the season, but visitors Crotone have averaged a league-worst 2.08 xGA away from home and it’s a case of now or never for the home side.
Udinese to close gap on Sampdoria
Udinese v Sampdoria
Sunday, 14:00
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Both of these sides have suffered heavy defeats of late, with Udinese shipping five in Naples and Samp doing the same at the San Siro, so this game is one which could go either way. However, Infogol backs the home side to get revenge for their 2-1 defeat at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium earlier in the season and close to within three points of their opponents ahead of the final day of the campaign.
Sassuolo to keep top seven hopes alive
Parma v Sassuolo
Sunday, 17:00
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Sassuolo have more points on the road this season than Parma have in total, so Roberto De Zerbi’s men will fancy their chances at Ennio Tardini, and the visitors still have Europa Conference League football in their sights. Filip Djuričić’s late penalty in the reverse fixture sparked Parma’s downfall, with 13 defeats in the 19 games since, and Infogol backs Sassuolo to leave Emilia-Romagna with all three points.
Milan to stay in control in Champions League chase
AC Milan v Cagliari
Sunday, 19:45
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Milan’s superior head-to-head record against Juventus gives them the upper-hand in the battle to secure Champions League football and means they can potentially afford to drop points in their last two games. However, they’ll be keen to seal the deal sooner rather than later, and a home meeting with a Cagliari side who aren’t quite safe from relegation will be a game Stefano Pioli’s side will think they can win.
Verona to earn first win in eight
Verona v Bologna
Monday, 19:45
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A defeat at Crotone put Verona’s top-half hopes in jeopardy, but Ivan Jurić’s side can finish strongly by getting the better of Bologna on home soil. With three points separating the sides, the hosts can ensure they finish above the Rossoblù with a victory, and Infogol gives them a 46% chance of taking the points.
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Source: Betfair Italian
