Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga scoreline predictions with a tight top-four battle taking shape…
“Wolfsburg are three points clear of fifth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, with Borussia Dortmund sandwiched between the clubs, but Oliver Glasner’s side could end end up relying on their superior goal difference to lock up a top four finish.”
Arminia to miss out on important win
Arminia Bielefeld v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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A goalless draw with Hertha Berlin wasn’t enough to lift Arminia Bielefeld above the relegation play-off spot, and a mini-revival with Frank Kramer in charge hasn’t masked the fact that the last six games have brought an average of 1.00 xGF. Kramer’s men have been better at home than on the road, and have a chance against Hoffenheim, but Infogol makes the visitors favourites after their comeback win over Schalke last time out.
Augsburg to crawl over line with home win
Augsburg v Werder Bremen
Saturday, 14:30
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A win for Augsburg on Saturday will be enough to guarantee their safety while keeping Werder Bremen in trouble, and this meeting of two horribly out-of-form teams could be a scrappy one. A lot has changed since two late goals gave Werder victory in the reverse fixture, with neither team winning since April 3, but Infogol’s model backs Markus Weinzierl to pick up his first win at WWK Arena.
Leverkusen to guarantee top six finish
Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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After a late-season recovery, Leverkusen are just two points away from mathematically guaranteeing Europa League football for the 2021/22 campaign. Union Berlin are one of their closest challengers for the berth, but Urs Fischer’s side look set to miss out thanks to a failure to beat any top-eight side away from home, a record which is likely to continue at the BayArena.
Bayern to continue victory lap
Freiburg v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern sealed the title in style last week, putting six past Borussia Mönchengladbach, and still need eight goals from their last two games to match last season’s Bundesliga tally. Hansi Flick won’t want to leave off the back of successive away defeats, and Infogol’s model expects his team to avoid such a fate against opponents yet to beat Bayern in nine attempts since winning promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016.
Hertha to damage Köln in relegation clash
Hertha Berlin v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
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Hertha’s midweek win at Schalke extended their unbeaten run to seven and moved them one step closer to safety. They can make absolutely certain by beating Köln, and a home average of just 1.2 xGA per game – comfortably the stingiest in the bottom half – is expected to be enough to carry them over the line against a team in even more desperate need of a result.
Gladbach to rebound from Bayern humbling
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Stuttgart
Saturday, 14:30
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Marco Rose will be keen to bow out with a win in his last game in the home dugout at Borussia-Park, and victory over Stuttgart can ensure the hosts finish above their opponents this season. Both of these sides have had no trouble scoring or conceding all season long, so a home win with both teams finding the net – Infogol’s model rates the latter as a 57% chance – is supported by the numbers.
Eintracht to take top four battle to final day
Schalke v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30
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Schalke’s misery hasn’t really abated at any point this season, though they have made their last two opponents work for their victories. Eintracht Frankfurt will hope for a slightly more straightforward afternoon, as they go into the final two games outside the top four. All Adi Hütter’s team can do is win their last two and hope, and Infogol’s model makes them 58% favourites in Gelsenkirchen.
Dortmund to keep their cool in Mainz
Mainz v Borussia Dortmund
Sunday, 17:00
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It may be good news for Borussia Dortmund that Mainz are now safe from the drop barring an improbable combination of results, given the impressive recent form of Bo Svenssson’s side. That’s not to say the hosts won’t want to prolong a nine-game unbeaten run, though, and the visitors will have to work hard to claim victory against a side who held them to a draw early in Svensson’s tenure.
Wolfsburg’s top-four finish to be put on ice
RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg
Sunday, 19:30
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Wolfsburg are three points clear of fifth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, with Borussia Dortmund sandwiched between the clubs, but Oliver Glasner’s side could end end up relying on their superior goal difference to lock up a top four finish. It won’t be easy for them to breach a Leipzig defence averaging just 0.81 xGA at Red Bull Arena, and Infogol’s model expects the hosts to guarantee a second place finish with victory.
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Source: Betfair German
