Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides scoreline predictions from Serie A as Juve face off with Milan in a huge clash…
“By the time Juve and Milan kick off on Sunday, results elsewhere may well have added extra pressure to the clash at the Allianz Stadium.”
Napoli to stay in top four hunt
Spezia v Napoli
Saturday, 14:00
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Napoli lost ground on their rivals last week after failing to take their chances against Cagliari, but can keep up the pressure on Atalanta, Juventus and Milan by taking the points at Alberto Picco. Spezia are by no means safe, sitting just three points ahead of the bottom three, but Infogol’s model still expects the visitors to claim victory given Vincenzo Italiano’s side’s struggles at home.
Udinese to keep top half hopes alive
Udinese v Bologna
Saturday, 14:00
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Udinese have been stronger at home than their results suggest, and after a topsy-turvy few weeks they can get a top-half chase back on track by beating Bologna. A late equaliser from Tolgay Arslan meant the points were shared in the reverse fixture, but Infogol backs Luca Gotti’s team to take all three points this time around.
Champions Inter to celebrate in style
Inter Milan v Sampdoria
Saturday, 17:00
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Results elsewhere last week ensured Inter have been able to wrap up the title with four games to spare, but they’ll still want to end the season on a high. They welcome Sampdoria, the only side who they’ve failed to beat in Serie A this season, and that could well be motivation enough for Antonio Conte’s side to extend their unbeaten run to 19 games with a home win.
Lazio to keep top four contenders on their toes
Fiorentina v Lazio
Saturday, 19:45
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Fiorentina probably need another win to make sure of their safety, but won’t be hugely confident against a Lazio side coming off seven wins from their last eight. Infogol anticipates a win for Simone Inzaghi’s men to go with their narrow victory in the reverse fixture, but both teams are tipped to find the net at Artemio Franchi.
Sassuolo to prolong unbeaten run
Genoa v Sassuolo
Sunday, 11:30
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Sassuolo still have a Europa Conference League place up for grabs, and they can keep seventh-place Roma on their toes by leaving Luigi Ferraris with all three points. Genoa’s 1.15 xGF at home is one of the worst returns in Serie A, and Infogol gives Roberto De Zerbi’s visitors a slight edge against a team who they beat in their last two league meetings.
Benevento to claim priceless win in six-pointer
Benevento v Cagliari
Sunday, 14:00
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Benevento haven’t been quite as poor at home as their return of 12 points suggests, but they’ll likely need to pick up at least a point on Sunday if they want to stay in Serie A. Victory at Ciro Vigorito would lift Pippo Inzaghi’s side above their opponents with three games left, and while Infogol’s model makes them the favourites, there’s very little to choose between the two sides.
Atalanta to stay second with away win
Parma v Atalanta
Sunday, 14:00
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A run of five defeats on the spin means Parma will be spending next season in Serie B, and it would be a surprise to see them end that run against an Atalanta side who have not lost to a team currently in the bottom half of the table. Infogol backs the team in second, though it could be a closer one than anticipated after Parma’s last two defeats came by a single goal.
Verona to keep Torino in trouble
Verona v Torino
Sunday, 14:00
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Torino aren’t out of danger yet, especially considering the fact that two of the teams below them will meet in Benevento while Davide Nicola’s team travels to Verona. Ivan Jurić’s hosts have been tough to break down at MarcAntonio Bentegodi, and Infogol has them getting the better of the relegation battlers to preserve their own place in the top half after sitting 10th or higher all season.
Outgoing Roma boss Fonseca to earn win
Roma v Crotone
Sunday, 17:00
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Paulo Fonseca will not still be at the Olimpico next season, with José Mourinho lined up to replace his compatriot, but the outgoing boss will be confident of a win at home to Crotone. The visitors still sit dead last, with a league-worst average of 2.08 xGA away from home, and Infogol’s model gives the Giallorossi a 77% chance of ending their recent league slump with a victory.
Juventus to win crunch top-four clash
Juventus v AC Milan
Sunday, 19:45
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By the time Juve and Milan kick off on Sunday, results elsewhere may well have added extra pressure to the clash at the Allianz Stadium. A win for either side would represent a huge step in their pursuit of a top-four finish, and Infogol makes the champions favourites to complete a league double over the Rossoneri after handing Stefano Pioli’s side their first league defeat of the season back in January.
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Source: BetFair Tips
