Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions ahead of a potential title decider…
“Both of the sides in action at Camp Nou on Saturday know the title could end up in their hands, with Atléti holding a two point lead over their hosts.”
Elche to suffer another blow in survival fight
Real Sociedad v Elche
Friday, 20:00
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A late penalty miss denied Elche what would have been a well-deserved point against Atlético Madrid last time out, but they’ll need to make a quick recovery to keep their bid for safety alive. It won’t be easy, with a trip to Anoeta to face a Real Sociedad side who put three past them on the opening day, and Infogol’s model anticipates a similar outcome on Friday night.
Alavés to earn crucial win
Alavés v Levante
Saturday, 13:00
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A blunt display at Eibar saw Alavés’ unbeaten run come to an end, but they remain just above the drop zone and can take a big step towards safety this weekend. Opponents Levante are coming off a run of five defeats in six, averaging just 0.67 xGF per game in the process, and Infogol gives the hosts the upper hand in a game which is not expected to be full of goals.
Barça to win pivotal top-of-the-table clash
Barcelona v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
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Both of the sides in action at Camp Nou on Saturday know the title could end up in their hands, with Atléti holding a two point lead over their hosts. Ronald Koeman’s side are averaging 2.43 xGF at home this season, with an actual goals tally to match, and Infogol gives them a 57% chance of securing a victory which would see them go top for the first time this season – at least until Real Madrid play on Sunday.
Huesca to pick up priceless away victory
Cádiz v Huesca
Saturday, 17:30
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Huesca’s win over Real Sociedad last weekend has kept them within touching distance of survival, but they may need some points on the road to preserve their top-flight status. Fortunately for Pacheta’s side, their upcoming game sees them travel to face a Cádiz side with one of La Liga’s worst home records and 1.53 xGA at Ramón de Carranza, ensuring Infogol’s model makes the visitors narrow favourites.
Athletic to all but guarantee top-half finish
Athletic Bilbao v Osasuna
Saturday, 20:00
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Athletic Bilbao sit five points clear of rivals Osasuna ahead of this weekend’s meeting, so a home win at San Mamés would all but ensure bragging rights for another year. Marcelino’s team have averaged just 0.85 xGA at home – the best in all of La Liga – and Infogol expects this to be enough to carry them to a ninth home win of the season.
Eibar to fall short at Getafe
Getafe v Eibar
Sunday, 13:00
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Eibar are still five points short of safety despite last week’s win, and their task now is to breach a Getafe defence averaging less than one xGA at the Coliseum. Only Atlético Madrid have conceded fewer actual goals at home this season, and Infogol’s model anticipates a win to nil for the hosts, whose own safety is not yet assured.
Managerless Valencia to keep out Valladolid
Valencia v Real Valladolid
Sunday, 15:15
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Valladolid kept their heads above water with a fourth straight draw last weekend, but a return of 1.57 xGA per game this season – second worst in the league – remains a worry. They’ll hope for something away to a Valencia side with Voro in temporary charge once more following Javi Gracia’s dismissal, but Infogol’s model believes Los Che’s home strength could well be enough to carry them through.
Villarreal to preserve top-six spot
Villarreal v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 17:30
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A scrappy victory over Getafe last weekend pushed Villarreal back into the top six, and they’ll feel they can get the better of a Celta side against whom they scored four unanswered first-half goals in January. Infogol gives Unai Emery’s side a 50% chance of victory, and they’ll be keen to get points on the board in their next two matches before finishing the season with games against Sevilla and Real Madrid.
Real Madrid to outdo former boss Lopetegui
Real Madrid v Sevilla
Sunday, 20:00
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Sevilla’s title challenge all but ended last weekend as they lost to Athletic Bilbao, and this could be good news for a Real Madrid side who will surely be happier to face opponents whose season suddenly has less at stake. Julen Lopetegui will still be keen to derail his former employers’ title charge, but Infogol expects Los Blancos to preserve a home record which has kept them in title contention.
Betis to pull clear of Granada
Real Betis v Granada
Monday, 20:00
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With a six-point lead over Granada, Real Betis can essentially confirm a top-seven finish by gaining revenge for their 2-0 defeat at Nuevo Los Cármenes in December. Manuel Pellegrini’s side have dropped points of late, drawing six in a row, but Infogol’s model anticipates a victory for the team from Seville – a first against Granada since the visitors returned to La Liga in 2019.
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Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
