La Liga Tips: Barcelona could drop more points against home specialists

“Barca were 1-0 up against Granada and had chances to extend that lead, before conceding two second-half goals. Now they must bounce back against a Valencia side that are unbeaten in their last eight home games (W4 D4).”

Back Valencia and Barcelona to draw at 5.69/2

It’s fair to say that La Liga is providing the most exciting title race in Europe. The top four are currently separated by just three points.

Barcelona had the chance to go top on Thursday night, but lost 2-1 at home to Granada and remain third. Despite this loss, Barca are still the favourites to win the title at 2.56/4, ahead of the leaders Atletico Madrid at 2.8815/8, second placed Real Madrid at 3.711/4 and fourth placed Sevilla at 15.014/1.

Pressure on Atletico

Elche 9.89/1 v Atletico Madrid 1.444/9; The Draw 4.77/2
Saturday 1 May, 15:15
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

In many ways there is more pressure on Atletico in this title race, than anyone else and they’re certainly showing it.

Having been top of La Liga for so long, anything less than winning the title will be a massive disappointment for Diego Simeone’s team. Last weekend they lost 2-1 at Athletic Bilbao, which stretched their run without an away league win to four games (D2 L2).

One would expect that run to end at Elche, who are 18th in the table, but it’s hard to be that confident in Atletico right now. Elche have scored in their last six home games, so let’s back both teams to score at 2.47/5.

Madrid keeping clean sheets

Real Madrid 1.412/5 v Osasuna 9.617/2; The Draw 5.24/1
Saturday 1 May, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

Real Madrid’s biggest obstacle in this title race is that they are the only one of the four competitors that are still in Europe.

On Tuesday, Madrid were involved in a 1-1 draw with Chelsea in the first-leg of their Champions League semi-final. It was the latest in a series of recent stalemates, with Real having now drawn four of their last five games (W1), of which two have cost them valuable points in La Liga.

One aspect where Madrid can be happy with their form is defensively. The goal against Chelsea was the only one that they have conceded in five games and you can back them to win to nil at 2.245/4.

Valencia difficult to beat at home

Valencia 8.07/1 v Barcelona 1.412/5; The Draw 5.69/2
Sunday 2 May, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

Having suffered a massive blow in midweek, Barcelona now face what is arguably the toughest fixture, of any of the title contenders this weekend.

Barca were 1-0 up against Granada and had chances to extend that lead, before conceding two second-half goals. Now they must bounce back against a Valencia side that are unbeaten in their last eight home games (W4 D4).

The odds for a Barcelona win look too short given the circumstances and it’s worth taking a chance on the draw landing at 5.69/2.

Sevilla will win to nil again

Sevilla 1.574/7 v Athletic Bilbao 5.85/1; The Draw 4.03/1
Monday 3 May, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

While the teams above them have been dropping points in recent games, Sevilla come into this match having won each of their last five games.

In their most recent game last weekend, Sevilla did what Barcelona failed to do, by beating Granada 2-1 at home. That result has seen Sevilla move from being fringe title contenders, to genuine ones, with a crucial away trip to Real Madrid to come next weekend.

The match against Granada almost saw a trend continue for Sevilla. They have won without conceding in ten of their last 14 home games and if not for an injury time penalty from Granada, Sevilla would have added another to that list. With Bilbao failing to score in two of their last three away matches, back the hosts to win to nil at 2.3811/8