Leeds can edge the Irons
Noisy Neighbours to prevail at Old Trafford
Man United vs Man City
Saturday, 17:30
Manchester United crashed out of the Champions League in midweek, with their late renaissance not enough to claw back the deficit against RB Leipzig (xG: RBL 1.7 – 2.2 MUN). The damage was already done, and they worryingly continue to be slow starters, registering 73% of their total xGF after the break this term. Against top opposition, like Manchester City, they’ll get punished for this glaring vulnerability, and they might struggle to find a way through City’s improving defence (1.1 xGA pg). To make matters worse for United, Pep Guardiola’s side are seemingly regaining their swagger in attack, now averaging 1.8 xGF per game. While that’s strong output, it’s obvious they’re yet to fulfil their potential going forward this campaign, although the pieces of the jigsaw are coming together at just the right time – before the Manchester derby. The Infogol model makes City favourites (46%) for this game, and there’s a high probability the Citizens could put the hosts to the sword here (84% O1.5).
Chelsea to continue excellent run of results
Everton vs Chelsea
Saturday, 20:00
After making a sensational start, Everton have endured a turbulent period, and their win over Fulham was a much-needed three points to end a string of defeats. They’ve since failed to build on that win, conceding 3.4 xG against Leeds, while failing to score a winner against Burnley last weekend (xG: BUR 0.9 – 2.1 EVE). Their poor defence has (1.65 xGA pg) cost them dearly, and unfortunately, they now welcome Chelsea to Goodison Park, with the Blues mounting a serious title charge under the tutelage of Frank Lampard this season. Incredibly, they racked up 4.7 xG last weekend, and they’re outstanding at the back, too (0.9 xGA). The Toffees might struggle to find a way through the, according expected goals, best defence in the league, but with Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.8 xG/avg match) among their ranks it would be foolish to downplay their chances in front of goal. Chelsea (49%) should have too much, but Everton can get onto the scoresheet (55% BTTS).
The points to be shared on the South Coast
Southampton vs Sheffield Utd
Sunday, 14:15
Southampton beat Brighton 2-1 last weekend (xG: BRI 2.0 – 1.4 SOU), with Danny Ings (0.5 xG/avg match) making an excellent return from injury, converting from the spot to provide the match winner. In his absence the Saints have performed well, but they’ve failed to consistently create a healthy rate of opportunities (1.2 xGF pg) . Crucially, Sheffield United have encountered the same problem this season (1.2 xGF pg), but their lack of a talismanic figure has left them with just one measly point on the board. Creating 3.3 xG against West Brom yet failing to score perfectly encapsulates their predicament, although results are bound to improve if they can deliver similar performances. The Infogol model calculates a 55% chance that the Blades can avoid defeat, and both sides can score at St Mary’s.
Jose Mourinho to release the handbrake
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
Sunday, 14:15
After suffering consecutive defeats, Crystal Palace emphatically responded with a 5-1 win over West Brom on Saturday (xG: WBA 0.7 – 1.8 CRY), ruthlessly taking advantage of the hosts receiving a red card. However, that result doesn’t gloss over the bigger picture at Selhurst Park, with Palace recording abysmal underlying numbers this season (1.3 xGF, 1.6 xGA pg). Not far away in North London, Tottenham are top of the league, and they’ve took seven points from a tricky period of fixtures against Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Jose Mourinho had implemented a more pragmatic approach for those three games (0.4 xGF pg), and the Portuguese should release the handbrake against Palace, allowing Spurs to unleash their dynamic attack that’s averaged 1.7 xGF per game overall. I’m expecting them to stylishly win this, and the Infogol model agrees (44%), predicting there’ll also be goals (49% O2.5).
Liverpool to outclass struggling Fulham
Fulham vs Liverpool
Sunday, 14:30
Fulham failed to compete with Man City last weekend at the Etihad (xG: MCI 3.3 – 0.3 FUL), and they would have been delighted at conceding just twice. Their haphazard defence (1.9 xGA pg) is the third worst in the league according to expected goals, and they’ll be seriously up against it again with Liverpool visiting the capital. The champions dismantled Wolves on Sunday (xG: LIV 1.7 – 0.5 WOL), scoring four in an impressive performance, and Trent Alexander-Arnold’s return granted the Reds a further boost. Alexander-Arnold recorded 0.3 xA/avg match last season, placing him firmly in the sphere of the league’s most elite providers, and it’s likely Fulham will struggle to handle his marauding runs and deadly searching balls. The Infogol model believes Liverpool (67%) will win this game comfortably, and they should do so with minimal fuss (47% BTTS ‘No’).
Arsenal to bounce back against Burnley
Arsenal vs Burnley
Sunday, 19:15
Arsenal are now winless in four games in the Premier League, with their 1-0 win away at Old Trafford the last time they collected three points (xG: MUN 0.4 – 1.1 ARS). Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.2 xG/avg match) converted from the spot on that occasion, but his barren run in front of goal is just one of many problems on an extensive list for Mikel Arteta. The Gunners’ underlying numbers need significant improvement (1.2 xGF pg, 1.3 xGA pg), although fortunately for the 2,000 Arsenal fans that will be in attendance at the Emirates, Burnley may struggle to test their back line. The Clarets have averaged an underwhelming 0.9 xGF per game this term, and only West Brom have created less in the topflight. If Arsenal (49%) can keep a clean sheet (50% BTTS ‘No’) they should have enough to take this game, and they can bounce back from a poor run of results.
Brighton to draw at Leicester
Leicester vs Brighton
Sunday, 19:15
Leicester compounded Sheffield United’s suffering last weekend, scoring a deserved goal in the dying embers of the game (xG: SHU 0.3 – 1.4 LEI) . It was Leicester’s first win after two lacklustre results in the league, with the Blades failing to probe their questionable defence (1.5 xGA pg). Brighton were on the wrong end of a 2-1 defeat themselves, losing at the Amex to Southampton (xG: BRI 2.0 – 1.4 SOU). It was a poor display from the Seagulls, who have recorded some respectable numbers this season, however, they’ve perhaps not secured the results their performances merit (1.6 xGF, 1.2 xGA pg). Nonetheless, this contest at the King Power Stadium is shaping up to an intriguing encounter, with the Infogol model placing both of these sides just one position apart in the expected league table. A cagey game is forecast (51% U2.5), and I think the points could be shared here.
Source: BetFair Tips
