Bayern to put down another marker
Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig
Saturday 05 December, 17:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
It says a lot about the strength of Bayern Munich’s squad and the mentality of their players that the European champions could field a heavily-rotated side at Atletico Madrid and still avoid defeat. Robert Lewandowski, Manuel Neuer and Leon Goretzka were all left at home, and Bayern fielded 17-year-old ex-Chelsea prospects Jamal Musiala and Bright Arrey-Mbi. Serge Gnabry and Thomas Muller were only introduced after the hour mark at the Wanda Metropolitano, and yet were still able to combine to win the penalty that Muller converted for the equaliser.
With those players rested, Bayern can now field a strong side for one of their biggest games of the season. They were twice held by Die Roten Bullen in the league last term, but they have never lost at home to Leipzig, and RBL have never even so much as scored at the Allianz Arena. In the DFB Cup final against Leipzig two seasons ago, Bayern survived a scare or two before easing to a 3-0 win.
It’s worth looking at how Bayern have performed in the big games this season.
They smashed Atletico Madrid 4-0 in their Champions League opener, they have beaten Borussia Dortmund 3-2 in both the Bundesliga and the DFL Supercup, and they overcame Sevilla 2-1 in the UEFA Super Cup. Bayern always give teams a chance with their high defensive line, but they have a slavish devotion to the idea that they’ll always outscore their opposition.
Leipzig made life hard for themselves in midweek, blowing a 3-1 lead at Istanbul Basaksehir before Alexander Sorloth’s first goal for the club rescued a 4-3 victory at the death. Last weekend, RBL turned in what coach Julian Nagelsmann described as their worst performance of the season, as they scraped a 2-1 win against a very limited Arminia Bielefeld.
Given that Leipzig face a must-win game against Manchester United in the Champions League on Tuesday, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Nagelsmann leave a key player or two out here, but it’s hard to know what his best XI actually is. The coach admits defenders like Dayot Upamecano and Willi Orban are feeling the strain, and Ibrahima Konate has only just returned from a long lay-off. Marcel Sabitzer missed the start of the season with injury, Konrad Laimer hasn’t played at all, and summer signing Hee-Chan Hwang has made a negligible impact.
I’m not sure Leipzig are in the right shape or frame of mind for this challenge, and they’ve lost big away games against PSG and Manchester United. I expect Bayern to win this, but the league leaders haven’t kept a single clean sheet in their last eight matches. I’ll back Bayern to win and both teams to score at 2.1411/10 on the Sportsbook’s Same Game Multi.
Capital clash to entertain
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin
Friday 04 December, 19:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Given the money Hertha have spent on their squad in 2020, not many people would have predicted that they would trail city rivals Union by a hefty eight points going into the tenth matchday. While Hertha have struggled for consistency, and have leaked plenty of goals, Union have put together an eight-match unbeaten run, and have surged into the top six.
Union’s inspiration has been nomadic and dramatic football magician Max Kruse. He has delivered six goals and five assists in just nine matches, and scored a stunning equaliser in last weekend’s 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. Six of Union’s nine games have featured four goals or more, and there have been at least two goals in all four of their away games.
Hertha have played ten competitive matches this term, and half of them have featured four goals or more, with an Over 2.5 Goals bet landing in seven of them. At home they have leaked 11 goals in just four Bundesliga matches this term.
A conservative play would be to back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.774/5, while Over 3.5 Goals is tempting at 2.942/1. I’m going to land in the middle, and back Over 3.0 Goals in the Goal Lines market at 2.3211/8. If there are three goals, our stake is returned, but we still get a nice odds-against winner if there are four goals or more.
Draw specialists to strike again
Werder Bremen v Stuttgart
Sunday 06 December, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Although Werder Bremen were smacked 5-3 by Wolfsburg last week, and Stuttgart lost 3-2 at home to Bayern, both sides have made encouraging starts to the campaign. They have lost just twice each, and have each drawn five of their nine league games so far.
Stuttgart have drawn their last two away games, while Werder’s last two games at the Weserstadion have ended level. I don’t see much to choose between the sides, and they have exactly the same number of points. I don’t often go for the draw, but I will this time.
Source: BetFair Tips
