West Ham v Aston Villa
Monday 30 November, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports
Can Moyes take West Ham into Europe?
After losing their opening two matches of the season, West Ham have stepped it up a gear to exceed the expectations of even their own fans.
David Moyes has led the team to take 14 points from their next seven games – four of which were victories. Perhaps the most impressive thing is that during that run, they faced Wolves, Leicester, Spurs, Man City and Liverpool.
The manager might also have the services of Michail Antonio on Monday, but even if he is fit enough to make the squad, it’s hard to imagine that Moyes will drop Sebastian Haller, following his goal at Bramall Lane last weekend. It would also be harsh on Jarrod Bowen and Pablo Fornals to be dropped, even if Manual Lanzini and Said Benrahma are waiting in the wings.
Aston Villa need to bounce back from Brighton defeat
Villa have been a bit of an oddity this season, as after opening up with four statement wins, they have since been beaten at home by Leeds, Southampton and Brighton – but with a 3-0 win at Arsenal sandwiched in-between.
The argument could be made that it suits them better to play away from home, but while it’s all behind closed doors, I don’t really see it. What I do see though is that their game is better suited to taking on the top teams in the division, where they possibly get afforded a bit less respect – allowing Jack Grealish more time on the ball.
Ross Barkely was forced off in the opening minutes of the Brighton defeat last Saturday, and while his hamstring injury isn’t too bad, he is expected to miss the next couple of games. Other than that, I wouldn’t expect too many changes to the XI, as Dean Smith hasn’t done much tinkering this term.
The Hammers are the 2.3811/8 favourites for this clash on the Betfair Exchange, with Villa at 3.1511/5 and the draw at 3.65.
I am actually finding this quite a tough one to call as both teams have been good this season – and the two meetings from last year both finished all square.
The hosts are probably the more solid option, as they have had a bit more consistency than the visitors, and they are in the better recent form too. However that is factored into the price.
Not having a bet when the odds don’t jump off the page at you is no bad thing, and the beauty of Betfair is that there are hundreds of markets to have a look at.
One of those such markets is the Over/Under 2.5 Goals one, and with the Under trading at 2.3211/8 on the Exchange, I am keen to play.
West Ham have won their last two matches 1-0, and prior to that they kept the score down at Anfield in a 2-1 defeat, and drew 1-1 with Man City on this ground.
This is a David Moyes team remember, and his mentality is often to focus on keeping it tight at the back, as opposed to that of a gung-ho one.
Over 2.5 Goals is actually the favourite at 1.728/11, and it’s a bet that would have landed in six of Villa’s eight league fixtures this season, but it’s worth noting that they are yet to concede a goal away from Villa Park.
I have had some success with Same Game Multis this season, and today’s selection takes the Under 2.5 Goal pick, as outlined above, and combines it with some corners and cards.
Only Liverpool have won more corners than Villa this season, and the Villans have played fewer games than everyone bar Manchester United. They have had 59 in eight matches, whereas West Ham have had 44 in nine. Therefore I like Dean Smith’s side to have the most corners. I would also back this as a single too.
I also think that there will be over 30 booking points. Again Villa are near the top of the rankings on this – fourth behind Leicester, Newcastle and Fulham. West Ham are in ninth, and at least one of their players will likely get booked for fouling Grealish.
Under 2.5 Goals, Aston Villa most Corners and Over 30 Booking Points pays 11.1 on the Betfair Sportsbook as a Same Game Multi.
Key Opta Stat
Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has won a foul in each Premier League game he’s featured in since the start of 2019/20, a run of 44 matches. The last English player to win a foul in as many consecutive Premier League appearances was Kevin Davies between October 2005 and August 2007 (59 in a row).
Source: Betfair Premier League
