Arminia to feel Leipzig backlash
RB Leipzig v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday 28 November, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
These are dark times for newly-promoted Arminia Bielefeld. They still haven’t scored a first-half goal all season, and they have lost their last six matches. Coach Uwe Neuhaus has elected to pursue a safety-first policy against Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, and has lost all three games. It’s still hard to see where the goals are going to come from – Bielefeld haven’t scored multiple goals in a single game this term.
RB Leipzig had plenty of possession at PSG in midweek, but still suffered a damaging Champions League defeat, and that makes it a dangerous time to play them. They have won their last four Bundesliga home matches, and have led at half-time in three of those encounters. Arminia will try to contain them, but it’s worth noting they have trailed at half-time in five of their six league defeats this term.
Backing Leipzig/Leipzig in the HT/FT market at 1.758/11 isn’t the sexiest play in the world, but it’s a sensible one.
Haaland to strike again
Borussia Dortmund v FC Köln
Saturday 28 November, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
What a week it has been for Erling Haaland. The Norwegian striker was named as the Golden Boy, the best player in Europe under 21, and it’s hard to disagree. He responded by scoring four goals in one amazing second half at Hertha Berlin, as Borussia Dortmund came back from 1-0 down to win 5-2. He followed that up with a brace in Wednesday’s 3-0 win over Club Brugge in the Champions League. The 20-year-old has 23 goals for club and country in just 18 games this season, and in his first 22 matches as a Bundesliga player, he has netted a record-breaking 23 goals.
Next in the firing line are Köln, who are set to break the club record for their longest winless run in the Bundesliga. It currently stands at 18 matches, but coach Markus Gisdol continues to receive the backing of sporting director Horst Heldt. The Billy Goats were awful in the second half of their 2-1 defeat to Union Berlin last weekend, and they look devoid of confidence and structure.
Köln’s last two visits to Dortmund have seen them lose 5-0 and 5-1, and I anticipate something similar. I’ll use the Sportsbook’s Same Game Multi to back Dortmund to win, Over 2.5 Goals and Haaland to score at 1.9620/21.
Wolves too short for Friday showdown
Wolfsburg v Werder Bremen
Friday 27 November, 19:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
I’ve had mixed fortunes opposing Wolfsburg this season, but I genuinely believe they aren’t as good as their results suggest. They have made an unbeaten start to the campaign, but they haven’t faced Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich or RB Leipzig yet, and they have only once won by more than one goal. They have drawn five of their eight games, and they scraped home wins against Arminia Bielefeld and Hoffenheim.
Given all that, I can’t justify their price of 1.84/5 to beat a Werder Bremen side that hasn’t lost since Matchday One. Florian Kohfeldt’s side drew 1-1 at Bayern last week, and would have won had it not been for a world-class performance from Manuel Neuer. Bizarrely, Bremen have now drawn their last five games 1-1. If you look at the Green and Whites’ away record, they have lost just one of their last nine top-flight matches outside the Weserstadion.
I don’t think there’s much to choose between these sides, so I’ll lay the hosts at 1.84/5.
Prepare for a Rhineland rollercoaster
Bayer Leverkusen v Hertha Berlin
Sunday 29 November, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Whether they like it or not, Hertha Berlin are one of the most exciting teams to watch in Germany right now, mainly because they can’t defend. They have leaked 23 goals in nine competitive matches this term, and they tend to have thrillers against the elite sides in the division. They lost 4-3 at Bayern, 5-2 at home to Borussia Dortmund, and their 2-1 defeat at RB Leipzig should really have featured more goals. While they do leak plenty of goals, the likes of Matheus Cunha are capable of making magic happen at the other end.
Bayer are unbeaten so far in the league, but still aren’t quite firing on all cylinders. That said, they are dangerous in attack, and have scored 13 goals in their last four Bundesliga matches. Peter Bosz’s side has kept just two clean sheets in eight Bundesliga outings, and I think we’re in for a cracker here. Back Over 3.5 Goals.
Source: Betfair German
