Tractor Boys are still far from convincing despite excellent home run
Ipswich Town v Portsmouth
Saturday 7th November, kick-off 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1, BBC IPlayer and BBC Sport website
There’s an intriguing competition currently playing out in League One in the early throes of the season, with Ipswich manager Paul Lambert and Gillingham boss Steve Evans seemingly going at it by regularly complaining about refereeing decisions and how their respective sides deserved to win. It’s a bit of a head-to-head at the moment between the pair as to who can be the angriest.
Whether this weekend’s FA Cup first round match will provide some respite I have no idea, as Ipswich have drawn Portsmouth. Not an easy one.
Indeed, it’s a tough match to call and I am not surprised the market is tight between the hosts at 2.8815/8 and Pompey at 2.6213/8. Both come with warnings, though.
Kenny Jackett has hinted at changes following five games in 16 days. Three players are carrying injuries too, and that’s a blow as I was looking forward to seeing Michael Jacobs as the creative player that Jackett has needed for a while in the middle of the park.
Town for me still are too ponderous on the ball. It was something I highlighted prior to the Sunderland game, and whilst there were a few incisive passes in midweek, they aren’t dynamic enough with the ball and their possession is mostly in their own third. However, their league record at Portman Road this season is impeccable with five straight wins and no goals conceded.
The backers of Portsmouth will be heartened by the fact the Opta stats point to the dreadful record of Ipswich in the FA Cup as they have won just one of their last 18 matches in the competition (D6 L11).
I’m far from enamoured by the pair as both prices don’t excite me, so I’d rather play on the draw in the outright odds at 3.55/2.
KEY OPTA STAT: In three previous seasons Ipswich have faced Pompey, they have been eliminated each time.
Back Rovers to bag a few goals against non-league opposition
FC United of Manchester v Doncaster Rovers
Saturday 7th November, kick-off 17:30
Live on BBC Two
The BBC Two cameras head to the north-west in search of an FA Cup upset, but market indications are predicting an extremely one-sided match-up with Doncaster expected to be around the 1.201/5 mark against FC United of Manchester’s 10.5. Although the odds on the hosts are likely to be nearer 14.013/1 at kick-off.
Doncaster have traditionally fared well at this stage of the competition, as they’ve made it to the second round in six of their last seven attempts. Victory on Saturday would take their sequence to four successive wins in the opening round.
Under Darren Moore they’ve dominated plenty of matches this term, but Moore has used the word “frantic” on occasions when they can’t break teams down with their passing as they go searching for the wonder pass or wonder goal when teams dig in. They are almost better when attacked, as their counter system works well.
Moore will need to address the glaring problem defensively by conceding goals down their own right-flank. Both goals in the Tuesday 2-2 at Plough Lane against Wimbledon came from that side, and clues are now becoming a coincidence – as Poirot once said. But Saturday’s opponents are some way down the ladder – in the seventh tier in fact, and in context, FC United have beaten Pontefract Collieries and Guiseley.
These games are never easy from a punting point of view as I am never going to tip a 1.21/5 chance, and likewise with other markets with Doncaster so short. Considering they’ve hit four against Ipswich and Bristol Rovers, I am happy having a go at the -2.5 Asian Handicap bet at around 1.9620/21.
KEY OPTA STAT: FC United of Manchester will be appearing in the FA Cup proper for just the third time, making it to the second round in 2010-11, and losing in the first round to Chesterfield in 2015-16.
Tangerines could slip up with tricky Eastbourne tie
Eastbourne Borough v Blackpool
Sunday 8th November, kick-off 14:30
Live on BT Sport 1
For regular readers of my League One previews, you’ll know I have hardly been positive about Blackpool’s chances and often go with their opponents Draw No Bet or Double Chance as the Tangerines are constantly overpriced.
They haven’t appeared in my last two columns, which is a relief, as they’ve won both. But still, I am not convinced, especially at odds of 1.491/2 for Sunday’s BT Sport game at Eastbourne.
It’s certainly a laying price, and this is a game that Blackpool boss Neil Critchley could do without. The current fixture list is relentless, and Critchley has a squad thinning out with suspensions to both Dan Ballard and Ethan Robson and two more injuries picked up on Tuesday. Add to that the non-availability of Liverpool loanee Ben Woodburn who is self-isolating, and I think we have enough to take on the visitors. We can back up the bet too with Opta stats, as they have won just one of their last four visits to non-league sides.
Eastbourne are currently sixth in the National League South, and whilst they are three divisions below Sunday’s opponents, the market respects their chances with a price of 4.67/2.
I’m also looking forward to seeing Dean Cox for Eastbourne, a player I always enjoyed watching plying his trade at Leyton Orient in his prime. He was unlucky with injuries, but was a lovely, skilful player to watch in his prime who had a real affinity with the O’s fans.
KEY OPTA STAT: Eastbourne Borough have netted just one goal in total in their six FA Cup games to date; drawing two and losing four.
Don’t expect a classic but use the half-time market
Oxford City v Northampton Town
Monday 9th November, kick-off 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1
Northampton manager Keith Curle has won his six FA Cup matches against non-league opposition by an aggregate score of 24-5 across spells at Mansfield, Chester, Carlisle and his current team, so he is well-versed in overcoming these tricky first round hurdles.
However, the market is sensing an upset here with National League South side Oxford City chalked up at 3.55 against Northampton’s 1.75/7. It’s not too far from an actual League One market and is far from being lop-sided.
And that for me makes the hosts a no-bet, they are far too short for a team playing in the sixth tier.
City have been kept busy with eight games in October – including their qualifying successes against Royal Wootton Bassett and Tamworth (who they hit for six), and for those watching on Monday night, they could well line up in their familiar 3-5-2.
Northampton will be direct, and it wasn’t a surprise to see the passing stats for League One published this week had the Cobblers in 22nd with just 2778 passes – compared to the MK Dons’ 6015. So don’t expect much on the floor.
Curle organised his side well with a good point on Tuesday against the MK Dons (passing stats don’t win everything) and they were extremely well-drilled. For these sorts of games, the lower ranked team will look to stay in the match for as long as possible, so the best way to play this would be to back the draw in the Half-Time market.
KEY OPTA STAT: Northampton have won just three of their last 13 FA Cup games against non-league opposition (D4 L6).
Click here to read more FA Cup previews by Ian Lamont featuring League Two teams
Source: Betfair FA cup
