Robert Lewandowski – 4/1
Last season, the Bayern Munich striker ended the 12-year dominance of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in this market, becoming the first ‘other’ player since Kaka in 2006/07 to finish as top scorer in the Champions League.
He did so in style, smashing 15 goals to help Bayern to the trophy, finishing five clear of Erling Haaland with team-mate Serge Gnabry a further goal back. No-one else managed more than six.
Lewandowski, who also scored at least eight times in four of the previous seven seasons, begins this campaign as the favourite but that looks the right call by the layers and it is surely only the presence of Ronaldo and Messi in the market which makes him a 4/1 shot.
Frankly, he looks overpriced.
The Pole is playing as the centre forward for Europe’s best team. Bayern proved that last season, deservedly winning the trophy. They won all six group games, scoring 24 goals in the process, and fended off all-comers when the knockout stages resumed behind closed doors in August.
Lewandowski is a deadly finisher in the penalty area and his supply lines will again be strong with assist maestro Thomas Muller in behind and the likes of Alphonso Davies and Joshua Kimmich (sometimes) from wide areas.
Bayern are 4/1 joint favourites to retain the trophy (alongside Manchester City) and look highly likely to go close again so there will be plenty of opportunities for Lewandowski to add to his tally in this competition.
A good group draw can be key to this market and this year it has thrown Bayern games against Red Bull Salzburg and Lokomotiv Moscow which look kind ones for Lewandowski in terms of boosting his balance. Salzburg may have won the Austrian Bundesliga seven times in a row but they leaked goals in this competition last season, conceding 11 in the group stage. As for Lokomotiv, they haven’t played at this level since 2003 and look a little out of their depth.
As for Ronaldo and Messi, they simply aren’t the force they once were, at least in terms of the Champions League.
Ronaldo has managed ‘just’ 10 UCL goals in his two seasons at Juventus, who haven’t been beyond the last eight in that time. As for Messi, he’s passed six goals in only two of the last five campaigns, scoring just three last term.
His Barca side are a team in transition following their 8-2 defeat to Bayern in August’s quarter-final, and with Messi clearly no longer wanting to be at the Nou Camp after his summer transfer wrangle, he looks short enough at 7/1.
Kylian Mbappe is the one man able to muscle in on the Big Three in the betting – he’s half a point shorter than Messi – but the PSG man is yet to score more than six in a Champions League season.
Yes, he’s only 21 and continually improving but Mbappe plays wide in a team which really shares the goals around – Neymar and Mauro Icardi will get their fair share – so it really is hard to look past Lewandowski at the price.
Duvan Zapata – 33/1
Atalanta were great entertainers last season and their attacking philosophy was rewarded with a run to the quarter-finals of this competition. It was so very nearly better – they led eventual finalists PSG with 89 minutes on the clock.
In Serie A they banged in 98 goals, narrowly failing to become the first team to net 100 since 1951.
Colombian striker Zapata is at the pinnacle of an attack which makes the Italians one of the most watchable teams in Europe and, with a season of Champions League experience now under their belt, Atalanta look capable of giving it another good go in this competition.
Click here for our Champions League team-by-team guide
Zapata scored 19 goals last term despite missing two months due to injury and, if he stays fully fit, seems highly likely to add to that tally.
Atalanta’s group contains Liverpool – shorn of Virgil van Dijk – Ajax and Danish minnows Midtjylland so it looks one capable of producing some high-scoring games and Zapata has the quality to profit.
The danger here is that, like PSG, the goals get shared round – Josip Ilicic and Papu Gomez are other big threats in this team, while Zapata’s fellow Colombian Luis Muriel often helps himself to a few off the bench.
However, that’s built into the price and with Zapata the first choice at the spearhead of a goal-laden team, he looks worth backing at 33s.
Lucas Ocampos – 150/1
When looking for an each-way long shot, Ocampos’ price of 150/1 catches the eye.
Sevilla’s Argentine winger scored 17 times in all competitions last season, easily finishing as his side’s leading scorer.
He helped the Spaniards win the Europa League for the fourth time in seven years and now they get another chance to shine at UEFA’s top table.
Given the quality in their squad and a kind draw, they can be expected to go well, too.
Sevilla will face leaky Chelsea, French side Rennes and Krasnodar, Russia’s third-best side who won less than half of their league games last season.
There’s certainly potential for Sevilla to score a few in that group and penalty-taker Ocampos, who has a perfect record of six out of six from the spot for the club, could cash in.
The place terms are a quarter of the odds for a spot in the top four.
The average number of goals required for a top-four finish has been 8.7 over the past 10 years but it has taken just six to make it in the last two seasons.
That’s not a particularly high bar and one Ocampos is capable of clearing.
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Source: Betfair Champions League
