Tottenham v Newcastle
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Spurs will look to find their feet at home
Tottenham 0-1 Newcastle. That’s not a prediction. That was the scoreline when these two met at exactly the same point of the season (Matchday 3) last year.
Spurs also kicked the current campaign off with a 1-0 home defeat against Everton but they’ve followed up with a trio of away wins.
They won 2-1 and 3-1 in the Europa League against Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Shkendija respectively. And last weekend they went to Southampton and pummelled the hosts 5-2.
Harry Kane (3) and Son Heung-min (5) shared eight goals in those games so Tottenham have found a spark going forward.
Spurs have won five of their last six meetings against Newcastle but the Magpies’ 1-0 win last season isn’t exactly an outlier.
Steve Bruce’s men have taken victory in four of their last six visits to Tottenham, making the 560-mile journey a worthwhile one for the travelling Toon Army.
Sadly, they won’t get the opportunity to cheer their team on this time with fans still not allowed to attend games.
Magpies have started brightly on the road
Despite the lack of away support, Newcastle have won both their road trips this season.
They were opening weekend winners as goals by new signings Callum Wilson and Jeff Hendrick secured a 2-0 triumph at West Ham.
And in the Carabao Cup in midweek, they were so rampant that even Joelinton managed to score twice.
To be fair, it was the Brazilian’s goal that secured victory in this fixture last season. A shame he’s managed just three other goals in between last August and Wednesday night.
Newcastle did get a wake-up call at home to Brighton last time when defeated 3-0 but add in another Carabao Cup success over Blackburn (1-0) and they’ve opened this new campaign with three wins out of four.
The calendar has shifted a little but it took them until November to record to their third win last season.
The 0-1 loss to Everton. The defeat by that same scoreline in the fixture last year. The stats this term which show 11 away wins in the 20 Premier League fixtures so far…
Hmmm. Does anyone really think that Tottenham offer a convincing case here at [1.51]?
That hints at value elsewhere and Newcastle are [7.6] to repeat last year’s heroics while The Draw is [4.7].
Bizarrely, the first two rounds of Premier League fixtures failed to throw up a single draw. If you work on the basis that a stalemate is due, that latter price holds appeal.
Newcastle haven’t won both of their first two away games in a league campaign since the days of Kevin Keegan in 1995/96 so, again, history may help point you towards a draw.
Then again, Jose Mourinho in home games against Newcastle? He owns a 100% record, racking up six wins with Chelsea and two with Manchester United.
There’s conflicting evidence from both past and present and I can’t quite pull the trigger on any of the three outcomes.
While ‘Yes’ in the Both teams to Score market is the favourite at [1.92], I’m happy to make that my bet here.
Spurs have failed to keep a clean sheet in four games so far and the opposition has hardly been amazing (it includes teams from Bulgaria and Macedonia).
And then there’s the playing away in Europe factor. Spurs had four away fixtures in the Champions League last season. In each Premier League game that followed, Tottenham conceded.
That pattern of conceding after a European away tie has obviously already been extended this season after they gave up two goals against Southampton.
And you can actually extend the sequence to eight if adding in the 2018/19 season when Spurs made the Champions League final.
Newcastle’s nine away goals in just two outings this season also helps make the case for BTTS.
And any fears that Spurs could fire another home blank must surely be eased by the form of Son and Kane.
Talking of Tottenham’s double act, both have previous against Newcastle.
Kane has three in his last four against Sunday’s opposition while it’s two in the last three for Son.
Kane is odds-on at [1.91] while Son is [2.24].
For Newcastle, Callum Wilson is [3.65] to make it two in two Premier League away games for his new club.
However, he’s got a poor record against Tottenham.
Opta Stat
Newcastle have won four of their last seven Premier League games in London (L3), including victory at West Ham on the opening weekend. The Magpies had only won three of their previous 24 top-flight matches in the capital (D3 L18).
Source: BetFair Tips
