Benzema to score in lively game
Manchester City v Real Madrid
Friday August 7, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
It seems an absolute eternity since Sergio Ramos was getting sent off late on at the Santiago Bernabeu and Kevin de Bruyne was converting from the spot to give Man City what looks to be a priceless lead. I say ‘looks’ to be because for my money, this tie is far from over.
But rather than backing Real to beat the odds and progress, I’d rather back their main man Karim Benzema to get a goal here, even if it proves to not be quite enough. He’s had his best season in a long time and is fresh from scoring seven times in the 11 league games since the restart. As an added bonus, he may well be on penalty duty in the absence of Sergio Ramos though admittedly Eden Hazard may be keen, as well.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing over 2.5 goals here but at an almost identical price, I’m going to go for at least a goal in each half. It sounds pretty obvious to say Real need to chase the game and City score quite a few goals themselves anyway, but it’s obvious because there’s a lot of truth in it.
Ronaldo on target in slow-burner
Juventus v Lyon
Friday August 7, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
The first thing I’ll say is that I wouldn’t read too much into Juve’s poor end to the Serie A season. It’s very much the Italian way to get a job done and point to the record books than giving it your all once you’ve already banked a trophy.
But this could be hard work for Juventus. Paolo Dybala, their most important player bar Cristiano Ronaldo, may be missing with an injury and that could really blunt their attacking play because he really is involved in just about anything they do.
I see this as a really tight game, Lyon somewhat relaxed with their one-goal cushion, Juve not panicking if their goal doesn’t come early and knowing that when they eventually get it, the whole pattern and momentum will shift. The stats show these two have played each other five times in the past and in the not-so-distant past and four of those ended under 2.5 goals, so that’s the way to go.
But this is Ronaldo’s tournament and this is just the sort of spotlight he gets up in the morning for. It may well go to extra time and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Juve went out, but not before Ronaldo adds yet another to his ridiculous tally.
Chelsea can get one, Bayern can get three
Bayern Munich v Chelsea
Saturday August 8, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
I really fear for Chelsea here. Yes, Bayern haven’t been in action for a few weeks but they were devastating since the restart and the counter-argument to the one that they may be a little rusty is that they’ve had ages to prepare for this specific match.
With Cesar Azpilicueta and Marcos Alonso missing, the Bayern forwards may well see this as a chance to cash in, especially Robert Lewandowski who is way ahead as the Champions League top scorer already but would surely love to add another one to his tally in this game. That Bayern score three is an even money chance and I actually make that a pretty decent price.
But Chelsea were good in attack at the back end of the season and with little to lose, should be good for a goal themselves. So go with ‘both teams to score’ in addition to those three Bayern goals.
Suarez steps up, Napoli score themselves
Barcelona v Napoli
Saturday August 8, 20:00
This game could actually be the pick from all four ties. The Sportsbook odds compilers make Barcelona 1/3 to progress but that looks a tad on the short side to me. Yes, they ‘should’ make it through after that 1-1 in the first leg but that’s not the sort of price I’d be taking.
But I do quite like the 4/1 on Luis Suarez scoring first. He wasn’t exactly on fire since the restart but then again he was coming back from a long-term injury and still scored five goals anyway. That’s a far bigger price than Leo Messi’s 5/2 and the Uruguayan is a man for the big occasions so that’s a price I’m pretty comfortable with.
I also think Napoli will score. They have lots of variety in their attack with pace, trickery and good finishing and Barca are missing not only one key defender but a couple of their best defensive midfielders, as well.
Add ‘both teams to score’ to that Suarez wager.
Source: BetFair Tips
