Nottingham Forest v Fulham
Tuesday July 7, 17:00
Sky Sports
Forest denied derby victory at the death
Nottingham Forest‘s feint automatic promotion hopes were dealt a major blow on Saturday as the Reds conceded an injury-time equaliser against bitter enemies Derby at Pride Park. The unusually low-key East Midlands derby affair looked to have been settled by Joe Lolley‘s early long-range strike, only for the Rams to bundle home a leveller in the dying embers.
Sabri Lamouchi‘s visitors could have added to their tally, with substitute Tiago Silva hitting the post from 20 yards and Lewis Grabban wastefully shooting wide. And with tenacious holding midfielders Samba Sow and Ben Watson crowding Wayne Rooney out, the Tricky Trees had limited the influence of the Rams’ standout star before the gut-wrenching blow.
Forest paid the price for missed chances, as assistant coach Bruno Baltazar described it as “unacceptable” to drop two points at Pride Park. He said, “It’s very frustrating, we had a plan which we stuck to until the 96th or 97th minute. It’s not the first time this season and we need to work on this, the concentration and to focus until the last minute of the game.”
Fulham leave it late
Josh Onomah‘s stoppage-time winner kept Fulham in the hunt for the Championship’s automatic promotion places as they squeezed past resolute Birmingham at Craven Cottage on Saturday. Onomah swept home from 12 yards in the fifth minute of added time to reward a late flourish from Scott Parker‘s side as they secured back-to-back victories.
The Whites, without suspended 23-goal top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic, had looked set to register a blank for the third time in four games since the Championship’s resumption. It took the hosts more than 85 minutes to truly threaten the Blues goal, before fine saves denied Joe Bryan, Bobby Decordova-Reid and Onomah before the latter’s decisive strike.
Fulham were fortunate not to have conceded in opening 15 minutes after making a string of sloppy early defensive errors. However, Parker was pleased with his team’s response, saying: “We needed to be patient, we needed to work our moments and the way they set up it was always going to be a game not full of massive chances. It’s a massive win for us.”
Odds split between top-six pair
Nottingham Forest have posted a negative W4-D3-L6 supremacy return against Fulham over the past 21 years with the Reds returning W2-D2-L2 when entertaining the Cottagers at the City Ground in league action. Indeed, the Tricky Trees come into this contest on the back of three successive defeats to the Whites, including a 2-1 loss in August’s reverse encounter.
Only West Brom (6) have lost fewer Championship games than Forest (9) this term and the Reds [2.86] have proven obdurate opposition for top-half rivals (W9-D7-L3). Nevertheless, the Tricky Trees have been turned over three times here against top-10 guests (W3-D1-L3) with Sabri Lamouchi’s side scoring twice or more just once in that same seven-game sample.
Fulham [2.80] have picked up just seven victories on their travels since relegation, although the Cottagers head to the City Ground having suffered a solitary reverse (at table-toppers Leeds) in nine road trips (W3-D5-L1). The Cottagers have W2-D4-L3 away at the top-half and have managed to notch more than a solitary strike just five times in 20 overall road trips.
Only four Championship grounds have seen fewer goals per-game than the City Ground (2.20). Twelve (60%) of Nottm Forest’s home fixtures have featured Under 2.5 Goals [1.73] with a huge 16 (80%) producing no more than three strikes, suggesting Tuesday night’s tussle could be a close affair, especially so considering the two teams’ league positions.
Fulham’s away days have been similarly low-scoring with an average of only 2.15 goals per-game. A chunky 13 (65%) failed to beat the Over 2.5 Goals line with only two matches generating Over 3.5 Goals profit. With the Whites’ sloppy road record in-mind and Aleksandar Mitrovic still suspended, I’m happy to keep Forest onside in a tight encounter.
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
