Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
Friday, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Hoffenheim are undefeated in four matches and should continue that run against an RB Leipzig side with one specific weakness. Manchester City supporters will remember Angelino’s propensity to go too far forward, drift out of his position, or make a defensive error, and that continues to happen for the left-back at Leipzig.
Players from bottom club Paderborn took the ball past him three times in the 1-1 draw last weekend, and on several occasions he left too much space down his flank. He was badly caught out of position in the 86th minute to allow Paderborn to easily counter down the right, leading to a strong penalty claim. A few minutes later the visitors scored from a corner after a move built down Angelino’s side of the pitch. Right winger Kai Proger managed nine crosses in the match.
Angelino may struggle against Hoffenheim’s most important attacker Robert Skov on Friday night. Skov averages more key passes (1.7 per match) and more crosses (1.7 per match) than anyone else in the squad. What’s more, he has a goal and two assists to his name in the last four matches. His battle with Angelino is a mismatch that can fire Hoffenheim to victory.
Fortuna Duesseldorf v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Borussia Dortmund have been in good form since the Bundesliga’s return, but they continue to struggle to break down a deeper defensive unit, such is their reliance on the free-flowing movement of their central front three. They require space in the middle of the park, which is precisely where a compact defence packs bodies.
In recent games, wing-backs Raphael Guerreiro and Achraf Hakimi have helped stretch the opposition and release the inside forwards into the channels. That may not work against Duesseldorf, who will be happy to concede possession in this game, while their 3-5-2 formation means Dortmund’s wing-backs can be marked out of the game by their opposite numbers.
A five-man defence and a three-man central midfield is the perfect mix to limit Marco Reus and Alex Witsel while preventing the wing-backs from building up speed on the flanks. A surprisingly low-scoring game is to be expected.
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1
The last big game Borussia Monchengladbach were involved in was a 3-1 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, in which Marco Rose’s side were very slow to get started. They couldn’t match the speed and aggressiveness of how Leverkusen began, only raising the tempo in the second half when the match was already beyond them.
That should happen again on Saturday, and not only because confidence is low after the 1-0 defeat to Freiburg last weekend. Alassane Plea’s suspension, coupled with Breel Embolo’s injury, will drastically alter Monchengladbach’s ability to threaten Bayern on the counter-attack. They have lost their key creators and consequently will not be able to get into a rhythm.
By contrast, Bayern are in ruthless form. Their tactical variety means it is almost impossible to stop them scoring, and Monchengladbach’s high-pressing tactics will leave plenty of space for the hosts to carve them open. A sluggish start and Bayern will hit five or six.
Schalke 04 v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1
David Wagner is trying everything to get results during Schalke’s injury crisis. They are without top scorer Suat Serdar (seven goals), Amine Harit (six goals, four assists), and six other first-team players, which helps explain a run of 11 games without a win. Wagner has picked five different formations in the last five Bundesliga matches.
More importantly, Schalke have found themselves repeatedly exposed by attempting to play a progressive brand of football, and so since a damaging 3-0 defeat to Augsburg – in which they held 71% possession – Schalke have repeatedly sat back and allowed their opponent to dictate play.
Kai Havertz’s return for Bayer Leverkusen means they should be very comfortable with this situation. His greatest asset to Peter Bosz’s side is the ability to drop off the front line and play intelligent one-touch passes into the likes of Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby as they run ahead. Havertz tends to excel against deeper teams, dropping to get on the ball and pull the opponent out of their shape.
Source: Betfair German
