Aston Villa v Everton
Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
The 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth last weekend revealed how Dean Smith’s side will be playing at Villa Park this season: funnelling attacks through John McGinn and Jack Grealish, who will look to break the lines and feed the ball wide for crosses into Wesley. Villa need to hold a lot of possession to get their dual playmakers on the ball in De Bruyne/Silva style roles, and Smith’s tactics tend to leave big gaps on the counter – especially in their weaker full-back positions.
That’s why Everton’s new signing Jean-Philippe Gbamin, a replacement for Idrissa Gueye, is so important. He made three tackles on his debut against Watford, but will need to break up the play considerably more effectively when facing McGinn and Grealish. If he can help close out the spaces between Everton’s defence and midfield then the visitors will be favourites to win; Bournemouth kept Villa at bay in the first half by ensuring Jefferson Lerma and Philip Billing cut off the passing lines to Villa’ high number eights.
Gbamin is equally important in launching the breakaways from which Everton will be most dangerous. He made more passes (39) than any other Everton player last weekend and many of these were ambitious long and/or forward balls. Bernard and Richarlison can certainly hurt Villa by cutting into the gaps around Douglas Luiz, but only if the counter-attack is initiated by Gbamin. He holds the key to both stopping Villa and opening them up.
Norwich v Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Daniel Farke preaches bold attacking football, his Norwich team showing constant forward-thinking intent in their two Premier League matches so far – producing nine goals in the process. They enjoyed 63% possession and 15 shots on goal against Newcastle last Saturday, a testament to the purposefulness of their tactics and the jinking playmaking ability of Todd Cantwell. Theirs is an expansive 4-2-3-1 shape that produces space in the final third – and space in their own defence.
Liverpool easily scored four first-half goals at Anfield on the opening day and Chelsea could certainly do the same. The visitors are very fast starters this season, racing out of the blocks with a manic high press that focuses on piercing attacks through the centre of the pitch via Mason Mount, Pedro, and Ross Barkley. Like Leicester City at Stamford Bridge, Norwich will surely be overwhelmed for the first half an hour, which will see their disorganised back four pulled apart.
But Chelsea are incredibly porous, too. Lampard does not appear to be coaching discipline or positional compression, meaning their gung-ho attacks really are based on individual creative freedom, hence their chaotic shape when the ball is lost. Norwich will counter through an empty central midfield, rewarded for their attacking bravery – but also punished for their own defensive shortcomings. There will be lots of goals in this one.
Man Utd v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00
Roy Hodgson’s team look jaded and bereft of ideas. Everything went through Wilfried Zaha last season and his form has clearly been affected by that transfer request, while Palace’s basic 4-4-2 shape has become stale and predictable. Then again, is there any club outside the top six better equipped to stump Man Utd?
Palace have only conceded one goal so far this season because they play extremely defensively; at United, they will camp on the edge of their own penalty area and happily absorb pressure for the entire 90 minutes. It’s an out-dated mode of defending that won’t work often this season, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s focus on speed in the United attack means it could successfully limit space for the hosts to run into. United lack guile in the final third having gone all-out for pace over the summer.
Compressing the lines in a low block, Palace won’t leave any room in central attacking midfield for Marcus Rashford to drop into, or gaps behind the defence for Anthony Martial’s runs. Paul Pogba’s creativity in the final third will be vital, as will Daniel James’s acceleration from a standing start; he is the only quick player in the team likely to work well in tight spaces. Eventually Palace will surely fall, but it could take a long time for the home team to make the breakthrough against such a rigid and deep-lying defence.
Liverpool v Arsenal
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
In late December last year Liverpool beat Arsenal 5-1 in a game defined by the visitors’ desperate, flailing defending, and although eight months on three of the back four have changed it is tempting to predict another big defeat for Unai Emery’s side. A sluggish victory at Newcastle on the opening day suggests Arsenal’s away form remains a problem that will not be instantly solved by the rise of Dani Ceballos or the influence of David Luiz.
Emery’s tactical philosophy may finally be about to take off at Arsenal. Luiz’s assertiveness in possession and Ceballos’s ability to weave away from the opposition press means the Gunners can draw the opposition forward and then counter-attack behind them, just as Sevilla did under Emery. However, Liverpool’s own pressing will create a congested pitch and, on home soil, Jurgen Klopp’s side will surely be able to control a side that still looks aimless on the road.
Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino can expect to cause in the spaces between the centre-backs and Arsenal’s low-quality full-backs, causing the short of panic that saw Arsenal crumble at Anfield back in December.
Source: Betfair Premier League
