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France – Ligue 1
Unsurprisingly, PSG are huge favourites to win the Ligue 1 title once again, and that is no surprise given the immense amount of talent that they have at their disposal, namely their front three of Kylian Mbappé, Edinson Cavani and Neymar (if he stays).
Priced at 1/12 on the Sportsbook to win their seventh title in eight years, they are mere certainties to deliver according to Infogol too (92%), but there is little value in such a short price, so let’s take a look at the
Spain – La Liga
Over in Spain, the usual suspects sit top of the title market (Barcelona 8/13, Real Madrid 6/4 and Atletico Madrid 14/1), and there is little value in backing any of them according to the Infogol model.
I was tempted to put up Atletico Madrid to win the league without Barcelona and Real Madrid at 4/6, but again, the model suggests there isn’t much value in that either, pricing it closer to 4/5.
Top four is competitive outside of the ‘big three’, so attentions turn to the foot of the table, and the relegation market.
Two of the promoted teams head the betting, Mallorca (5/6) and Granada (13/10), followed by Alaves (7/5), Real Valladolid (7/5) and the third promoted team, Osasuna (6/4).
Of those at the head of the betting, the obvious play is to back either Mallorca or Granada for relegation, but a glance at Granada’s transfer business suggests that they have the capability to survive.
They have brought in former Tottenham striker Roberto Soldado, talented Venezuelan international winger Darwin Machís, and solid defender Domingos Duarte from Sporting Lisbon.
So preference is for Mallorca, who finished fifth in La Liga 2 last season, gaining promotion through the play-offs after a dramatic comeback in the second leg of their game with Deprtivo La Coruña.
They have lost both Alejandro Faurlín and talented full-back Salva Ruiz (who has joined Valencia), while replacing them with a lot of unknown quantities.
While the signing of Alex Alegría from Real Betis could prove shrewd, he is unlikely to have a huge impact on their season, and the Infogol model gives Mallorca a 66% chance of relegation, suggesting the 5/6 on offer (around 55%) is good value.
Selection – Mallorca to be relegated @ 5/6
Germany – Bundesliga
Bayern Munich are once again short priced favourites (1/4) to retain their Bundesliga title for an eighth season in a row, and that could represent value at the end of the season, with Infogol very bullish on the chances of Niko Kovač’s side (97%).
This would be another value play, even at a short price, but I’m searching for a juicier bet, so let’s look closer at the top four finish market.
Last season’s Champions League qualifiers were: Bayern Munich, Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen, with Borussia Mönchengladbach, Wolfsburg, Frankfurt, Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim all missing out and all separated by just four points.
Bayern were the best team in the league according to xG, followed by RB Leipzig, who have strengthened with the acquisition of Julian Nagelsmann who joins from Hoffenheim, with his former team ranking third best last season, while Dortmund finished the season in fourth in Infogol’s xG table.
The champions are all-but certainties to finish in the top four, and the Infogol model thinks RB Leipzig are the team most likely to join them, followed by Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund.
Leverkusen are around even money to finish in the top four this season, which the Infogol model suggests represents a lot of value, especially as they have picked up two of Hoffenhiem’s better players – Kerem Demirbay and Nadiem Amiri – replacing Julian Brandt who left to Dortmund.
A closer look at their underlying numbers since Peter Bosz took charge in December shows that Leverkusen were the second-best team in the league after his arrival, with a process of 1.88 xGF and 0.92 xGA per game.
Given that they are arguably stronger personnel wise this season, and they were performing supremely well in the second half of the season under Bosz, the Infogol model gives them a 70% chance of finishing in the top four, meaning the even money (50%) available should be snapped up.
Selection – Bayer Leverkusen top four finish @ evens
Italy – Serie A
Juventus won their eighth straight Serie A title last season, and are odds-on to retain their champions status, priced up at 4/9 on the Sportsbook to do so, with Infogol agreeing they should be strong favourites (67%).
Maurizio Sarri has taken over at Juve, with many people sceptical about how good they will be this season, but he takes over an excellent group of players, and it would be a huge failure if they don’t retain their title.
They won Serie A at a canter last season, and wrapped it up with games to spare, which is the main reason why they finished second in Infogol’s xG table, behind Napoli, as they were – as the saying goes – on the beach.
Napoli were impressive under Carlo Ancelotti, and were unfortunate not to finish closer to Juventus, with their underlying process suggesting they are a good thing for another top four finish, and to be Juve’s closest challengers.
Over in Milan, Inter have appointed Antonio Conte as their new manager, and he takes over a side that had the fourth best process in the league last season, so has a good base to work from.
Those three are head of the ‘Top 4 Finish’ market, with AC Milan next up (6/5), followed by Roma (15/8), Atalanta (13/5) and Lazio (13/5).
AC Milan are in a transition period, with financial problems, and they were very poor last season according to xG, while Roma could be a serious contender again after the appointment of Paulo Foncesca and some interesting signings.
However, preference is for Atalanta in this market, as they were absolutely outstanding last season, rightly securing Champions League football.
At the end of the season, Atalanta finished third, and that was exactly where they deserved to be according to expected goals.
Their process was the best in the league, averaging 1.82 xGF and 1.06 xGA per game, and have kept manager Gian Piero Gasperini at the club, meaning that replicating this level of process is highly likely in the upcoming season.
Atalanta’s squad remains largely intact, with the only notable exit being that of young centre-back Gianluca Mancini, and they have retained the services of last season’s top scorer Duván Zapata, and captain Alejandro Gómez.
They were 10/1 to finish in the top four last season, with Infogol tipping them up in this same market in 18/19, and there remains a great deal of value even at a shorter price this time around.
The model gives Atalanta a 67% chance of repeating last season’s top four finish, which equates to odds of around 1/2, so the 13/5 (28%) on offer has to be taken, with a huge amount of value yet again.
Selection – Atalanta top four finish @ 13/5
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Source: BetFair French
