Liverpool v Norwich
Friday 9 August, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports
Liverpool ready and raring to go again
Just five days after being narrowly beaten by Manchester City on penalties in the Community Shield, Liverpool begin the 2019/20 Premier League campaign at home to newly promoted Norwich City and they’ll be keen to strike first in what many will hope to be a repeat of last season’s incredible title race. City, who edged out Liverpool by a solitary point last season, and who were the only side to beat the Reds in the last campaign, begin their bid for a third Premier League title in-a-row at the London Stadium against West Ham at 12:30 on Saturday.
If Sunday’s Community Shield told us anything it was that Liverpool are perhaps slightly fitter than the title favourites, City, as the season kicks off. Both clubs have been inconvenienced by demanding pre-season schedules, aimed more at raising their profiles abroad than getting match fit for the new season, but it was Liverpool that finished much the stronger at Wembley on Sunday.
Only the woodwork, an inspired Claudio Bravo in goal, and a miraculous Kyle Walker goal line clearance prevented Liverpool from enjoying the early bragging rights but after failing to beat Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla, Sporting Lisbon and Napoli in pre-season, they can at least enter Friday night’s game, safe in the knowledge that they’re on their way to full fitness.
We have to go back to 2012 to find the last opening weekend defeat for Liverpool, when Brendon Rodgers’ first game in charge ended with a 3-0 loss away at West Brom and we have to go back even further for their last home defeat – against Chelsea in 2003 – although they were held to a 1-1 draw at Anfield by Sunderland as recently as 2011.
Slow starters Norwich very hard to fancy
Norwich City are back in the Premier League after three seasons in the Championship and they’re back in style. Having finished only 14th in the 2017/18 season, Daniel Farke’s charges were 25/1 shots to win the league but with Leeds slipping up late on, the Canaries charged through to top the standings by five points over Sheffield United and they’re odds-on to emulate the last five Championship winners and maintain their Premier League status following promotion as champions.
Winning the title, and merely gaining promotion, had looked highly unlikely after Norwich’s start to the season last year when they languished in 17th place having won just one of their opening six fixtures but slow starts are nothing new to Norwich.
The Canaries won 4-1 away at Blackburn on the opening weekend of the 2016/17 Championship season but that was very much a one off. They’ve drawn their opening fixtures in each of the last two seasons and prior to that Ewood Park demolition, we have to go all the way back to 2002 for the last occasion that they began a season with three points. They’ve been notoriously slow starters and they’ve even struggled in seasons that have ended well. When they won the First division back in 2009/10, they began the season inauspiciously, with a 7-1 home defeat to Colchester before getting held by Exeter and beaten by Brentford.
Another Reds clean sheet looks on the cards
We have to go all the way back to 1994 to find the last occasion that Norwich beat Liverpool but it was at Anfield (1-0) and although the Canaries have lost ten of their last 12 encounters with the Reds, they have managed a couple of 1-1 draws at Anfield – in 2011 and 2015 so this perhaps some hope for the East Anglian outfit but it’s very hard to envisage anything but a comfortable home win this time around.
They may have taken a little time to get going pre-season but a 3-1 win against Napoli and Sunday’s draw with City should have readied the hosts sufficiently to brush aside the Canaries and it’s now just a case of working out how best to get them onside.
Long odds-on backers won’t mind smashing in to the [1.16] in the win market given Norwich’s appalling record in season openers and given Liverpool were winning at half time in 13 of their 19 home games last season, the [1.55] available about Liverpool-Liverpool in the Half Time/Full Time market looks fair.
Over 2.5 Goals is odds-on but that makes perfect sense. As many as 63% of Liverpool’s home games resulted in at least three goals being scored last season and 67% of games involving Norwich in the Championship resulted in at least three goals scored. And the last time these two met, at Carrow Road in January 2016, they combined to find the net nine times in total, with Liverpool edging the encounter by the odd goal.
Liverpool’s front three of Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino are a deadly combination and the Reds found the back of the net in all but three of their 38 Premier League encounters last season. Manchester United and Everton both kept them out at home but the champions, Manchester City, were the only team to keep a clean sheet at Anfield and it would be quite a surprise if the Canaries keep them at bay on Friday night but it wasn’t just their free-scoring that enabled Liverpool to come so close to the title last season, their defence was the stingiest in the division and they were breached just 22 times all season.
Liverpool kept a clean sheet in six of their first seven Premier League home games last season and I suspect we’ll see a similar start to this campaign so I’m dutching 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 at combined odds of approximately 6/4.
Source: BetFair Tips
