Exiles on a mission against promotion favourites
Newport County [2.5] v Mansfield Town [3.0]; the draw [3.6]
I read with incredulity that Newport are “ready to upset the odds again”. The very idea that they should be so ill-considered! Here is a club that made the play-off final last season being considered lowly when surely it should be considered they have the ingredients to push higher. So why should the odds indicate they need overcoming?
They might have lost full-back Dan Butler and goalkeeper Joe Day – and Michael Flynn might have lost his mentor with the sudden death of Justin Edinburgh, but the Exiles have retained Mark O’Brien, Josh Sheehan, Matty Dolan, Joss Ladabie and Mickey Demetriou – the latter two being on the radars of higher level clubs – all on two year contracts. They have added Tristan Abrahams, who was making his name last season, from Norwich, to the striker force that includes Padraig Amond and Jamille Matt. Corey Whiteley has also looked impressive in pre-season.
Strangely, given they seem to have invested their FA Cup run money (from two seasons) wisely, the layers put them well down the list of probably promotion candidates. Lower mid-table. Do they base this on the two high-profile exits? The ability to be distracted by cups?
The facts in front of me suggest they will finish well above that and should be glancing over their shoulders from a top three spot, not nervously towards the bottom.
Their opening fixture is tough: against a club with great expectations and no light touch on the ejector seat for the manager, having felt David Flitcroft couldn’t take them further.
Among the favourites again for promotion, Nicky Maynard would seem a jewel recruit, from scattered Bury, although Andy Cook, a big centre forward who performed well for Walsall in League One, might prove even better as they seek to replace Tyler Walker’s 26 goals.
The Stags will start full of optimism, but Newport will want to prove that they don’t have to keep upsetting odds, by making their mark. A chance on them is therefore advised.
By strange coincidence, Opta remind us that Mansfield, who lost to Newport in the play-off semi-finals, beat the Exiles 3-0 on the first day of last season – but at home. Newport have won just two of their last 16 games against the Stags, while the visitors have one just once in 14 opening day games away from home. Guess where that was? Newport have the perfect recipe here to “upset” those odds.
‘Bury South’ to start well on familiar northerly ground
Crewe [3.0] v Plymouth [2.62]; the draw [3.5]
Argyle are already being called Bury South after signing five of last year’s team, plus appointing Ryan Lowe and Steven Schumacher – a former Shakers midfield maestro.
Now, they need to forget the hype and get to the business of proving they can replicate last season’s success by being promoted from League Two, playing attractive football.
Contrary to popular belief, this division is not full of scrappy hoof ball. The big difference between this level and the top level, as Mark Wright said when boss of Chester, is that the players at the top think quicker.
Ignoring the Bury connections for a minute, fans will expect that the remaining Plymouth players who allowed themselves to drop into a position of being relegated on goal difference last season will put in greater efforts to rectify the situation. All the new blood – fresh faces – will help. As will the winning frame of mind of the manager.
For Danny Mayor, Callum McFadzean and others, a trip to Crewe used to be a short one. How they adapt to long trips every other week will be key to their progress now. How Lowe – who must have felt comfortable at Bury – adapts to his second job in management, far away from his roots, will also be crucial.
Dave Artell‘s side are always a tough nut to crack and fully capable of upsets and big scores to make you notice them. Last season, as Opta remind us, they beat Morecambe 6-0 on the opening day and Chris Porter has scored on the opening day in the past two seasons.
A conveyor belt of young talent over the years seems to have stalled after a succession of unsavoury headlines about one particular former coach of yesteryear.
How much that affects the present first team players is anyone’s guess, but they are going to miss striker Jordan Bowery (signed by MK Dons), plus captain George Ray (Tranmere), and have brought in winger Daniel Powell (ex-Northampton) and warhorse defender Olly Lancashire (Swindon) to replace them. It could be a tough season for the Railwaymen.
I hope I am not cursing the pre-season tip by backing them on the opening day, but I rather feel it could be a good time to wager on them while the price is good before, like Lincoln before them, they become too short week in, week out.
I’m hoping that Plymouth make a strong start (Opta say they have won once in their last six opening day matches) and lay down their intent.
Forest Green shouldn’t miss Doidge too badly
Forest Green [2.1] v Oldham [3.9]; the draw [3.7]
A succession of recent young signings and winger Chris Eagles means Oldham’s squad (if all dozen new faces since last season are all to feature) have had only a short time to gel. One also wonders how long the manager will last, as there were three last season, including temporary manager Pete Wild twice. Hopefully he has a more fulfilling stint at Halifax.
Having surprisingly sacked Frankie Bunn after one big reverse, the highest profile was Paul Scholes, of course, who walked out amid rumours of the chairman/owner signing all sorts of players without the head coach’s say so, on the basis they could be trained up and sold at a good profit. The suggestion was some of them wouldn’t have got near the reserve side.
Interestingly, this summer’s signings under Laurent Banide include Gregor Zabret, a goalkeeper, on loan for a season from Swansea who presumably therefore has quality. They also signed Gary Woods in that position from Hamilton Academicals.
Desire Segbe Azankpo, who helped Benin reach the African Nations Cup quarter-final, is among the others, having played mostly in France.
Forest Green, by comparison, seem full of the joys – and of consistent progress. They approach their third Football League season looking up the table not down as managers say – a strange expression as it literally implies they are down the bottom, but which really means they are looking at the top positions. This is so, after last season’s run to the play-offs.
While this eco-friendly club’s plans for a wooden new stadium were never likely to meet approval after the Bradford fire, the club continues to feel progressive, as does the team under Mark Cooper.
He took no chances when his team were faltering in their first season, changing many of the personnel, and this year has gone for a mix of higher-level players – Liam Kitching, of Leeds on a three-year deal – and unpolished lower-league gems such as Ebou Adams, a Gambian playing for Ebbsfleet last season.
Plus he has signed Aaron Collins, 22, who scored eight goals in 15 games at Morecambe last season. At that rate of return, Christian Doidge shouldn’t be long missed. Having had his move to Bolton fall through last January after four months there, he most likely won’t be back this time, from Hibernian.
Opta point out that Oldham have not won an opening day fixture in five attempts, while the two teams have only ever played each other in the league twice, both ending in draws. This time, Forest Green can get the better of their visitors.
Level pegging for Shrimps and Mariners seeking fresh starts
Morecambe [2.6] v Grimsby [3.0]; the draw [3.5]
If this was mid-winter – rather than intruding upon the summer’s main cricket series, The Ashes, in its infancy – I think I would be predicting a big fat double doughnut result here.
Opta hint at as much now, suggesting that Grimsby have failed to score in three of their last five league games with Morecambe, drawing two, and have won two of their last 17 opening fixtures. Yet, for me, they are better than their hosts.
Predicting a mid-winter goalless draw would depend on circumstances, but both sides have reason for optimism (as does any side at the start of a season): Morecambe for a clutch of new signings and the Mariners to inch up that progress under Michael Jolley with money from an FA Cup run last season to invest.
Wishing Jolley, a relative outsider to traditional ways of coming to football management, to succeed, one wonders how judicious the arrivals of ageing strikers Matt Green (most recently of Salford) and James Hanson (prolific at Bradford, a shadow of that at AFC Wimbledon) will be. Will versatile midfielder Elliott Hewitt, arriving from Notts County, prove pivotal?
Grimsby were making headway in the league around the time of their FA Cup third round tie at Crystal Palace, but didn’t kick on to a play-off place. Can they focus on that this year?
Shrimps boss Jim Bentley seems as jolly as ever in his work. Ex-Crewe midfielder Joe Lynch and Lewis Alessandra have been added to the squad. A host of last season’s faces have been re-signed. Will continuity and a little new blood be enough for the season?
I think both sides will be satisfied with a draw.
Source: BetFair Tips
