Union Berlin v Stuttgart
Monday 27 May, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video
Union should’ve won first leg, but it may not matter
Union Berlin have never won promotion to the Bundesliga, they have never lifted a major trophy, and before Thursday they had never contested this playoff before. That emotional weight didn’t press down on the backs and shoulders of the FCU players in southern Germany, as they twice recovered from a deficit, and came desperately close to returning to the German capital with a first-leg advantage.
Swedish striker Sebastian Andersson, who has scored 12 league goals this term, was outstanding. He was twice denied by world-class saves from Ron-Robert Zieler with the score at 2-2, and it was his powerful flick-on that teed up a goal for Suleiman Abdullahi. Long-serving centre-back Michael Parensen really stepped up in the absence of the suspended Florian Hubner, and skipper Christopher Trimmel’s set-piece delivery caused Stuttgart all kinds of problems. Trimmel and midfielder Felix Kroos are both suspended for the second leg, but Hubner is now available.
Union have only lost once at home all season, and that was to Paderborn, who went on to be promoted as runners-up. They won their last two home matches of the season against Hamburg and Magdeburg, and they have kept clean sheets in six of their last nine games at the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei. If they make it seven out of ten on Monday, they’ll be promoted, becoming the first second-tier side to go up via the playoff since 2012.
Stuttgart on the brink after falling into old habits
Just when seemed as though the old demons had been shut away in a drawer, to allow Stuttgart to avoid a disastrous relegation, they resurfaced at the worst possible time. Thursday’s draw at the Mercedes-Benz Arena shone a light on some chronic issues. Firstly, VfB had long spells of ultimately pointless possession, as they shifted the ball around with no pace or purpose. Secondly, the defensive dithering that saw them leak 70 league goals during the regular season was again in evidence. Emiliano Insua (who has already been relegated once with Stuttgart) was beaten all too easily for the first equaliser, and Marvin Freidrich was left totally unmarked at a corner for the second.
Now Stuttgart are slightly behind in the tie courtesy of the away goals rule, and their away form has been frighteningly bad this season. They have won just once on the road all campaign, and that was at Nurnberg, who finished bottom. VfB collected just six points away from home all season, one of the worst records in the division. Why should we suddenly believe they can produce a match-winning performance?
Andreas Beck is still struggling with injury, while Daniel Didavi is a doubt after he went off at half time for the second match running. Mario Gomez is pushing for a start after he scored on Thursday after coming on at half time.
Stuttgart have let slip their golden opportunity
I admit I predicted a Stuttgart win ahead of the first leg, but although they led twice they blew it, and I think their failure to protect a lead will ultimately cost them a place in the top flight. Stuttgart’s players froze a bit on Thursday night, and with a raucous crowd set to oppose them in Berlin, I’m not sure they can step up to the challenge.
Union are a much better team at home than they are on the road, and they played nerveless and positive football in Stuttgart. Given the fact that Stuttgart have lost nine of their last 11 away matches, I think Union are worth backing to win at [2.4]. If you want to be a touch more conservative, you could back them Draw No Bet at [1.72].
Andersson can fire Union to glory
Sebastian Andersson was a real handful in Stuttgart, and although he didn’t score, he came mighty close to doing so. His aerial prowess really came to the fore, as did his ability to link the play. I think he’ll get chances on Monday, and at 9/5 on the Sportsbook, I’ll back him to score.
Source: Betfair German
