Charlton Athletic v Sunderland
League One Play-Off Final
15:00, Sunday May 26
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event
Can Addicks hold their nerve after Doncaster scare?
My headline for one of the semi-final previews was “Addicks can book their place in Wembley final”. Of course they did, but I couldn’t have got the return game at The Valley more wrong. The second-leg defeat in 90 minutes in SE7 was most unlike Charlton. They lost and they conceded – and that wasn’t supposed to happen. Their success in the penalty shootout booked their Wembley ticket – but the victory raised more questions than answers.
Did they choke on the big stage? Perhaps they did. Manager Lee Bowyer said afterwards that the occasion got to the players. That match was played in front of the biggest crowd at The Valley since 2012. There’ll be 34,000 Robins’ fans come Sunday.
However, Charlton thoroughly deserve their final berth. They finished the season superbly with 88 points and were the form team towards the end of the campaign.
Ross to keep Black Cats steady for Wembley showdown
The four play-off matches were a good advert for League One punting – and why you should never be afraid of backing the outsider. Sunderland’s 1-0 home leg victory against Portsmouth in the first leg was the only time that favourite backers on the outright collected. And even then they were [2.42] – which was bigger than we saw for most of the season at the Stadium Of Light.
The Black Cats showed complete professionalism over their two matches with Kenny Jackett’s side – and they secured their path to Wembley with a 0-0 at Fratton Park. That result was a real kick in the teeth as I had backed and tipped the draw in the first game. Small margins and all that.
Igor and McGeady the doubts. What formation for Bowyer?
The Londoners are sweating on the fitness of striker Igor Vetokele – who has been struggling with a thigh injury for the last month or so and his pace is a major asset, otherwise Bowyer is at full strength. Tactically, I am unsure how the 42-year-old will set up his side. He threw in the curveball for the first Doncaster game by ditching the preferred diamond formation in favour of playing a back three in a 3-5-2, but he has utilised the diamond more often than not.
Sunderland again have Aiden McGeady as their sole doubt. His troublesome broken bone in his foot has prevented him from featuring in the Black Cats previous four games – and he would be a big miss if the injury keeps him out, as the winger has been directly involved in 20 goals in all competitions this term – with 14 goals and six assists.
Wearsiders’ boss Jack Ross is the more flexible of the two and has a few more options. He rarely plays a back three, though, and has a couple of fine attacking full-backs with Luke O’Nien and Bryan Oviedo. The latter’s delivery is excellent.
It’s no surprise the Draw on the outright market is a bit shorter than is the norm considering Sunderland’s record during the regular season. They were held an astonishing 19 times, which certainly puts that price of [3.20] under pressure. It’s a while since I have seen a Draw priced at [3.10] in this division. How close could it get on Sunday to those odds?
Sunderland trade as the favourites at [2.70] with Charlton the bigger of the two at [3.05]. I wonder what sort of number we would have had if Bowyer’s team had won the return leg at the Valley with Rovers. A convincing win certainly would have pushed them near to [2.70]. However, the nagging doubt with the Addicks was how the return leg occasion got to them. They were very nervy in possession and gave the ball away cheaply. More so than at any other point in during the campaign.
It is certainly in the back of my mind. It seems to be in the back of Bowyer’s mind too. He is usually so confident, but has already diverted the pressure by saying Sunderland hold the advantage. Or perhaps Bowyer has learned from last term’s play-offs?
Sunderland already have a Wembley appearance under their belts this season with the penalty shootout defeat at the hands of old foes Portsmouth and that can only be a plus, but Ross has been dealing with pressure and expectancy since he took over. Although many teams at this level would like the luxury of spending £4million on a striker – and Will Grigg might not even start.
Ross has won 30 of his 60 games in charge, whilst Bowyer’s is almost identical in terms of a percentage with 35 victories from 67, although he has only lost 11 matches since he took over at The Valley.
This is one of the toughest finals to call, as the ‘regular season Charlton’ would have been the bet, but I am concerned with how nerves beat them in the Doncaster defeat. That brings into play the Draw, but should we take slightly under the odds as per norm? I doubt the price will be nudged out to [3.40].
By process of elimination, the bet here looks Sunderland at the price. The [2.74] is too big, especially as Charlton couldn’t beat the Black Cats in the two games this season ( 2-1 and 1-1).
It could come down to how the players handle the occasion, and I’m feeling a bit more confident about Ross’ team to be superior in that department.
Sunderland carried the impressive record throughout their 46 regular season games by scoring in all but one, and that’s a decent stat to have onside – especially with how they defended at Portsmouth in the return leg. I would favour the punt on the 1-0 for Sunderland as a Correct Score play, although if you are looking towards the Both Teams To Score market – both have found the net in eight of the last nine matches between the pair – with the only exception a Premier League fixture in 2006.
I know I am going against the BTTS history, but I see this as more of an Under 2.5 game, and so does the market at [1.75], so we can leave alone that bet for now.
Siding with Sunderland, we could really do with McGeady being fit with his 14 goals and six assists, whilst Charlton’s Lyle Taylor will no doubt be popular for a punt as the First or Anytime Scorer considering his tally of 25 for the season – including eight in his last eight games. He also scored from the spot on 10 minutes in the 2-1 loss at the Stadium Of Light back in August.
Opta Stats
The side finishing third in League One (Charlton) has been eliminated from five of the last eight play-off finals (including Shrewsbury last season).
Amongst all club sides, only Newcastle United are currently in a longer winless run of matches played at Wembley than Sunderland (eight).
Charlton have lost just one of their last eight meetings with Sunderland in all competitions.
Source: BetFair Tips
