Brighton v Man City
Sunday, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Brighton have lost all 10 of 11 matches against Big Six clubs this season, although only twice have they been defeated by more than one goal – and that one game in which they grabbed a point just happened to be last weekend, a 1-1 draw against Arsenal. Chris Hughton will pack everyone around their own penalty box and invite an onslaught, and the longer they frustrate Manchester City the longer the league leaders will start to doubt themselves, will allow the astonishing events of Tuesday evening to colour their vision.
Tactically, City need to find a way to pass through the defensive blockade because high balls into the box just won’t work; Shane Duffy and Lewis Dunk will clear everything. Instead, City need to keep recycling the ball with patience but high tempo, pulling Brighton across the width of the pitch until a gap opens to play in Raheem Sterling or Bernardo Silva. Their runs in between the full-backs and centre-backs present the biggest danger to Brighton’s goal.
Glenn Murray will need to have the game of his life to get Brighton up the pitch and win set-pieces for the hosts to threaten. More likely, Brighton will be penned in and hoping for a miracle. Eventually David Silva will probably find an opener, but with Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez both struggling to show creativity against deeper sides, well, stranger things have happened.
Liverpool v Wolves
Sunday, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Liverpool’s exploits in the Champions League on Tuesday may hand them momentum, but it also leaves them exhausted, and with Roberto Firmino still absent it is probable that a highly motivated Wolves side will absorb the pressure. Their three-man defence is well suited to blocking off the lines in which Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane operate in, but an even bigger issue for Liverpool is the calculated nature of the visitors’ counter-attacks.
Ruben Neves and Joao Moutinho are superb at wriggling clear of the opposition high press and feeding the wing-backs, which helps explain why Wolves have such an exceptional record against the Big Six. Jonny and Matt Doherty can certainly get into the spaces left by Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson, both of whom will sit high up the pitch in an attempt to provide attacking width against that narrow, stubborn Wolves back line.
Raul Jimenez and Diogo Jota promise to test the resolve of Fabinho, whose heroic performance on Tuesday may not have left much in the tank for these two scurrying forwards. Liverpool are rightly favourites, but unless they score an early goal they face arguably the worst possible opponents to capitalise on their fear.
Leicester v Chelsea
Sunday, 15:00
Chelsea’s performances have scarcely improved over the last few months despite results stabilising, their 3-0 victory over Watford last weekend courtesy of two set-piece goals amid an otherwise directionless display at Stamford Bridge. By contrast, Leicester look assertive in their possession football under Brendan Rodgers – if a little prosaic -and consequently should have the confidence to soak up pressure when they need to and, more importantly, win the midfield battle.
N’Golo Kante’s injury means Chelsea are unlikely to compete with the work-rate or defensive strength of Wilfried Ndidi and Hamzah Choudhury, ensuring Leicester hold an equal share of possession and prevent the visitors from easily funnelling the ball out to Eden Hazard – their only real goal threat.
Jamie Vardy should have the run on David Luiz and Andreas Christensen – Chelsea’s defence struggled last weekend without the injured Antonio Rudiger – while James Maddison can find time on the ball around a flat-footed Jorginho. If that wasn’t enough to worry Chelsea fans, Gonzalo Higuain has looked completely out of his depth while Harry Maguire was in commanding form against Manchester City on Monday night.
Watford v West Ham
Sunday, 15:00
The gap in quality between the top clubs and the rest of the Premier League has reached the point that, bizarrely, clubs outside the top six don’t want possession when facing each other. Their tactical patterns are so dependent on sitting deep and countering that it is almost a disadvantage playing at home, where fans expect a progressive attitude. West Ham have the natural right to fall back this weekend, severely limiting the hosts.
Javi Gracia’s side rely on long balls up to Troy Deeney and Gerard Deulofeu’s speed on the break, the two forwards breaking very effectively this season to compliment a 4-2-2 defensive structure that frustrates possession-centric teams who try to pass through a highly congested central midfield. West Ham will deny Deulofeu space while Deeney will struggle to do anything meaningful with his headers from such an advanced position; Issa Diop and Fabian Balbuena have forged a formidable partnership.
In fact, West Ham generally look coherent at the moment, winning their last two matches and finally finding defensive sturdiness with Ryan Fredericks a mainstay at right-back. What’s more, Felipe Anderson and Michail Antonio are likely to utilise space out wide on the counter where Watford – as always – will leave too much ground for their tucked-in central midfielders to cover.
Source: BetFair Tips
