Maturing Leipzig ready to truly test Bayern
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich
Saturday 11 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
RB Leipzig have come a long way in a short space of time, a club in a hurry. They were only founded in 2009, as Red Bull bought the licence of Markranstadt, a side occupying the fifth tier of the German football pyramid. Their rise has been controversial, as they are backed by a multinational drinks giant, a company that has slyly circumvented the 50 + 1 rule, a regulation that stands as the guardian of the things that German football prides itself upon.
And yet this is not a simple case of footballing good and evil. Some of Leipzig’s squad came up through the divisions together – Yussuf Poulsen and Diego Demme played for RBL in the third division, while Emil Forsberg, Marcel Sabitzer, Peter Gulasci and Willi Orban all featured in Bundesliga 2. Rather than splashing out huge sums on established performers, Leipzig have signed youngsters, and allowed them to learn on the job. Teenage defenders Ibrahima Konate and Dayot Upamecano have blossomed, while 20-year-old American midfielder Tyler Adams looks hugely promising.
Given that policy of youth development (and yes, I know they aren’t players they have brought through their own academy), it is impressive that in three seasons, RBL have qualified for the Champions League twice, have reached a Europa League quarter-final and have now reached the DFB Cup final for the first time. When Julian Nagelsmann (one of the brightest young coaches in Europe) takes over in the summer, he’ll take the reins of a club in rude health.
But for all their success, Leipzig have had a mental block when it comes to facing Bayern Munich. They have lost four of their five meetings with the German champions, and they now have two opportunities to redress the balance. One of those chances will be in Berlin at the DFB Cup final, and another will be this weekend, an opportunity to derail the Bavarians’ title push.
Leipzig are guaranteed to finish at least third, so there is no pressure, and they face a Bayern team that is four points clear at the top but that still feels like it is clanking around in third gear rather than smoothly accelerating. Last weekend’s laboured 3-1 win over Hannover is a case in point – the champions played at home against the worst team in the division, a side that had Jonathas stupidly sent off early in the second half, and yet the game was in the balance until the 83rd minute.
Bayern can win an unprecedented seventh straight title if they take maximum points here, but they have won just three of their last six Bundesliga away games, and they are facing an RB Leipzig team that has put together a 17-match unbeaten run that stretches back to January. At [1.72], I’ll happily lay Bayern.
Brilliant Boszball to get an encore
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke
Saturday May 11, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
In a week of extraordinary comebacks that occurred in a matter of minutes, Bayer Leverkusen’s has been constructed over a period of weeks, but has been no less spectacular for that. Sunday’s 6-1 evisceration of Eintracht Frankfurt drew Die Werkself level on points with the Eagles in the race for fourth spot, meaning that the Rhineland club has wiped out a ten-point gap between the clubs in the space of four matches.
Peter Bosz’s thrilling brand of football has its faults, but when it clicks, it is breathtaking to watch. Young superstars like Kai Havertz, Jonathan Tah and Julian Brandt have embraced the changes made by their new Dutch coach, and more experienced players like Kevin Volland and Charles Aranguiz have also thrived. Bayer have won four games in a row, and show no signs of slowing down.
The Royal Blue shambles that will visit the BayArena couldn’t be more different. Schalke followed up last season’s second-place finish with a disastrous season that only saw them officially avoid relegation on Sunday, as they played out an achingly dull goalless stalemate with Augsburg that pretty much summed everything up. When attempting to spoil rivals Borussia Dortmund’s title push becomes the highlight of your campaign, you know something’s gone badly wrong.
Leverkusen are in top gear, and their main weakness (they are wide open to the counter-attack) is unlikely to be exploited by a Schalke team that has very little penetration in attack.
I’ll back the hosts -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at [1.95].
Don’t expect a show in Swabia
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin
Saturday 11 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Both of these teams are safe, and can start planning for the next campaign. Hertha have been sure of their survival for quite some time, but are still parting company with club legend Pal Dardai. He plans to spend some time in his native Hungary, before possibly returning to Hertha as a youth coach. Augsburg’s decision to replace coach Manuel Baum with Martin Schmidt was brutal, but it gave them that final push over the finish line.
Augsburg played out a goalless draw at Schalke last week, while Hertha’s draw with Hannover a fortnight ago is the worst game I’ve seen for years. There’ll be no intensity to this game at all, Hertha have scored just one goal in their last five away games, and I can see this petering out really quickly. Under 2.5 Goals looks attractively priced at [2.56].
Source: Betfair German
