Tranmere v Forest Green
Friday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports
Hosts need a big performance
Like Newport, Tranmere probably have to make the most of home advantage by taking a lead if they are to reach the League Two play-off final.
Foolishly, they let fifth place – which would have given them home advantage in the second leg – slip away with a last-day defeat at Crawley while Forest Green were killing Exeter’s hopes of a top seven finish by holding them to a goalless draw.
Micky Mellon‘s men have looked for long periods like they would be the ones to challenge the four teams who battled for the top three places, but fell away in the final few weeks.
In fact, they lost 1-0 at Prenton Park to Forest Green on Good Friday. And they were the only team to let champions Lincoln take any points in the past four games. “Could have done better” is the phrase to sum up their final seven games, in which they won just once, drew three times and failed to score in four matches.
Sid Nelson is enjoying being part of a successful squad while out on loan, something he hasn’t experienced in previous temporary moves from parent club Millwall, he says. And now he really has his chance, with Tranmere’s injury crisis starting with Mark Ellis (cruciate knee ligament) at centre-back. Nelson is only just fit though, as is Steve McNulty.
And while there are doubts over David Perkins – who played against Crawley – Mellon has real concerns about top scorer James Norwood, who he says has been playing through a groin injury.
When you rely so heavily on one player to score (29 goals this season), it can be difficult to replace him. Connor Jennings, next best with eight, was on the bench at the Broadfield.
Forest Green, meanwhile, are on the up, having taken 13, 16 and 20 points over six, eight and 10 games, compared to their hosts’ six, nine and 15. You can see the trend. Nine points away from home in their last four is also above Tranmere’s seven at home over the same period.
Cooper’s men have fantastic away record
Mark Cooper left out six of his regulars for the goalless draw with Exeter, figuring that he could finish in the same position as they did with three injuries, which muddles the form in their favour even more.
Not even then did Ruben Reid get a place in the starting line-up in place of Christian Doidge, with Shawn McCoulsky given a chance to impress – and taking it well.
As the visitors have 12 away wins this season, it’s got to be worth taking a chance on them to win at [3.6], especially with the wheels seemingly coming off Tranmere’s season. The hosts are priced [2.4] with the draw quite a bit shorter than in most games at [3.2]. That’s also worth considering.
Strong goals record in visitors’ favour
The visitors have not only netted 13 points from six games but bashed in 10 goals as well.
Not all teams have to rely on their best striker. Tottenham and Liverpool have both proved that this week and Cooper’s men were without Doidge from September to January while he was on loan to Bolton.
They were only too glad to have him back when his permanent move fell through, but he has only really returned to his full pelt scoring touch in the past few weeks, with five goals in the past six games.
Somehow they lost at Crewe, having been 3-1 up. Their previous away game was at Tranmere of course, so Prenton Park will hold no fear. Forest Green even beat their Rover namesakes 3-1 at the New Lawn in October and, as Opta point out, in the 2017 National League play-off final.
By contrast, Tranmere have scored just four goals in their most recent six games, with that injury to Norwood taking its toll and their lack of goals from elsewhere biting them. His team-mates, who have scored 33, have only just beaten Norwood’s goal tally between them.
The hosts have won just one of seven play-off campaigns, but do have the best clean sheets record in League Two, with 19. They have two in their last six and conceded once in three of the other games. Over 2.5 goals tempts @ [2.3].
Norwood injury makes his rival the goals value
Norwood might class himself as the poor man’s Dirk Kuyt, but teams the Dutchman played in tended to have others who could step in when he wasn’t feeling so good. Few League Two clubs have that luxury. Luton did, and maybe Lincoln have had that this season.
Therefore it is a little bit of a surprise to find Norwood heading the first goalscorer market at [4.0], with Doidge at [5.5], making the latter an easy choice at a value price. He and his manager knows not only that he would have scored close to 30 goals in this division (he scored 20 last year) as opposed to 14, but he has Reece Brown backing him up from midfield. Dayle Grubb, from midfield, Liam Shephard, from the back, and Reid were among those to pick up the pieces regularly in his absence.
Forest Green to take tight lead
In their last five away games, Prenton Park is the only place Forest Green have failed to score more than once. They scored three at Colchester and Crewe, and two at Port Vale and Crawley. In addition, last Saturday’s end of season game against Exeter was the only time they had failed to score in 10 games.
They do have five clean sheets in that time, but I think Tranmere will find a way of scoring here, too. Having limped their way through the final weeks, the urgency of the play-offs is bound to lift Mellon’s men.
Therefore I am going to go for Forest Green to win, but with both sides scoring. So I’m taking 2-1 in the correct score market @ [14.0]
Source: BetFair Tips
