Valencia v Arsenal
Thursday 9 May, 20:00
Live on BT Sport
After Premier League collapse, Emery relies on familiar route
Arsenal’s failure to beat Brighton in the Premier League on Sunday means they cannot realistically qualify for the Champions League via a top-four finish, and that has upped the ante when it comes to the Europa League. Gunners boss Unai Emery has been determined to win this competition for the fourth time from the get-go, but now there is need instead of want, finance-fuelled desperation instead of a purer quest for the glory of a European trophy.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s late third in Arsenal’s 3-1 first-leg win over Valencia at the Emirates has seriously swung the pendulum in Emery’s favour, but his team’s away form and penchant for defensive lapses are still a cause for concern. Arsenal have lost their last two Premier League games outside the Emirates 3-0 and 3-1, and in all competitions they have been beaten in five of their last eight away games, In that octet of road trips, they leaked 12 goals.
The loss to injury of influential midfield Aaron Ramsey is a blow, but Laurent Koscielny is likely to return after he was rested at the weekend. He’ll lead a defence that could feature the error-prone Shkodran Mustafi, a player well known to Valencia, after he spent two years with the Spanish side.
Valencia praying for Mestalla miracle
It’s been a while since Valencia were operating in the top tier of European football. The days of Hector Cuper and Rafa Benitez prowling the touchline are long gone, and names like Pablo Aimar, Ruben Baraja, Gaizka Mendieta, David Albelda, Santi Canizares and Mista are echoes of a purple patch that saw Los Che win the La Liga title, the UEFA Cup and reach two Champions League finals.
Now there is a chance to revive those feelings of triumph. Valencia face a Copa del Rey final against a Barcelona team that has had its spirit smashed by Liverpool, and in the Europa League they stand on the precipice, but can still pull back from the abyss.
Marcelino’s men warmed up for the game by demolishing Huesca 6-2, and although their overall form is patchy, they are very consistent at the Mestalla. Valencia have won seven of their last nine matches at home in all competitions, and their recent reverse against Eibar was their first home defeat since early November.
Former Arsenal midfielder Francis Coquelin is available after missing the first leg through suspension, but Geoffrey Kondogbia and Denis Cheryshev are both injured. Dani Parejo will look to orchestrate things in midfield, with Goncalo Guedes and Carlos Soler providing the threats out wide.
Valencia to win, but will it be enough?
Valencia’s home form and Arsenal’s continued tendency to be brittle on the road suggest that Marcelino’s side will go close to turning this tie around.
On that basis, you have a choice. You either back Valencia to win outright at [1.93], or you go the whole hog and back them to qualify at [3.65]. I think Aubameyang’s late third for Arsenal last week makes it a tough task, so I’ll make the conservative play and go for the home win.
Unders worth considering
Arsenal will try to do what they did in Naples in the quarter-finals. On that occasion they weathered an early Napoli storm, survived a few scares, and Alexandre Lacazette’s stunning free-kick broke the hosts’ hearts. Arsenal won 1-0, and they may well look to batten down the hatches and use Lacazette’s quality on the counter-attack.
Marcelino is no fool, and he knows early risks could see his team eliminated before their challenge really begins. He’s a pragmatist, and he’ll look to stay in the tie and launch a late rally.
It wouldn’t therefore surprise me to see this game finish with fewer than three goals, so backing Under 2.5 Goals at a hefty [2.46] is worth considering, as is backing No in the Both Teams To Score market at [2.5].
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
