The Big Match Tactical View: Barcelona v Liverpool

Barcelona v Liverpool
Tuesday 20:00, BT Sport 2
Match Odds: Barcelona [1.95], Liverpool [4.4], The Draw [3.8].

Barcelona start as favourite for this Champions League semi-final, but Liverpool are capable of matching them across the park, and tactically they have every chance of standing up to Ernesto Valverde’s side, and taking them on in a good, open game of football.

Tactics, though, can sometimes be rendered less important – because, of course, Barca have Leo Messi in their ranks, and if the Argentine brings his best form here, he makes every kind of tactical plan almost irrelevant.

Now back on the right flank after a period playing as a number 10, Messi drift inside into pockets of space between the lines. He remains a master of through-balls, has scored 10 goals in the Champions League this season, and has improved his free-kick taking to become the most dangerous set-piece taker in Europe. Sometimes, he’s simply unstoppable.

The other area where Liverpool can’t compete is in terms of midfield possession play. Sergio Busquets is getting on a bit, but his calmness in possession and his ability to play disguised passes through the lines is hugely valuable, while Ivan Rakitic is probably still underrated and his cool pass-and-move play to the right is a vital part of Barca’s plans in working the ball into Leo Messi.

The third midfielder is likely to be Arthur, yet another hugely authoritative midfield passer who will frustrate Liverpool with his patient distribution if Barcelona find themselves ahead in the tie. Arturo Vidal is another option, bringing more energy and fight to the side, which might be required against this energetic Liverpool side.

Valverde has two other selection decisions to make. One is at right-back, where Nelson Semedo’s speed might be preferred over the option of Sergi Roberto, who is more comfortable in possession. At the other end of the pitch, there’s a decision to make about who to play alongside Messi and Luis Suarez in the front three.

Philippe Coutinho would love to start against his former side, and he’ll drift inside to help overload midfield. But Ousmane Dembele’s directness could work well here, as Trent Alexander-Arnold, for all his ability in possession, can sometimes switch off defensively. Coutinho, however, would be better for the overlapping of Jordi Alba, who often carries a serious threat from left-back.

Suarez, of course, is up against his former club and has recovered from a poor start to the campaign. Expect him to prowl the channels menacingly, probably to the left in behind Joel Matip, with Virgil van Dijk difficult to get any change out of.

Jurgen Klopp has fewer selection issues. Alisson will play behind a back four of Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk and Andy Robertson. The full-backs have been responsible for much of Liverpool’s creativity this season, but they might play more cautiously in the Nou Camp as Liverpool sit deeper and play on the break.

The midfield trio of Fabinho, Jordan Henderson and Naby Keita offer tremendous energy and tenacity, but they might find themselves unable to cope against Barca’s possession play, particularly in the second half. Expect Liverpool to start at a high tempo, but then gradually sit deeper and become more reactive.

If Liverpool are to win this game, the speed of their front three will be a major factor. Roberto Firmino will drop deep to link play and encourage midfielders forward, leaving Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane to attack from wide areas. Indeed, the shape of Liverpool’s front three is somewhat similar to the approach Barca used in the Pep Guardiola days: a false nine with two wide attackers running in behind.

I fancy Liverpool over the two legs here, and even a 2-1 defeat at the Camp Nou might be considered a decent result, giving the Reds the opportunity to progress with a 1-0 victory at Anfield. I’ll bet on the tie rather than the first leg, and back Liverpool to progress at [2.22].

The Betfair Trader’s View – Alan Thompson

Liverpool seem to enjoy their trips to the Camp Nou, they have played the Spanish Giants four times away and are unbeaten (W2, D2). Both these sides have excellent European Cup pedigree, each winning the competition five times and both sides will fancy their chances of making it six in Madrid, if they can get through this.

The Reds couldn’t be going there in better form, they are unbeaten in their last 19 matches in all competitions (w14 D5), nine of which were away from Anfield. They last suffered defeat when they fielded a slightly weaker side away at Wolves in the FA Cup, January 7.

However, they face a formidable outfit in the shape of Barcelona, who have their own impressive records. They are unbeaten in their last 22 starts, winning all of their last eight at home, they last suffered defeat at home against Real Betis where they lost 4-3 back in November. Their overall record against English clubs at home in European competition is W21 D11 L2, but as mentioned above, both those defeats were against the Reds.

Ernesto Valverde’s men easily swept aside Manchester United 4-0 on aggregate in the last round and having secured their 26th domestic league title on Saturday with three games to spare, they can focus fully on the Champions League and that may be the difference between the sides. While I think Liverpool are more than capable of getting a precious away goal, I also think with the quality of Lionel Messi and Liverpool old boy Luis Suarez, the home side will get enough goals to take a lead to Anfield.

I will be backing Barcelona in the Match Odds and Both Teams to Score market at anything better than [3.5].