Bundesliga Betting: Borussia Dortmund need to shore up lead before Christmas

“The suggestion has been that Dortmund need to maintain their nine-point lead ahead of the winter break, but Joshua Kimmich’s weekend comments after the win at Hannover that Bayern need to keep it to that hinted that the champions’ current trepidation is greater than that of the challengers.”

When is a cushion really comfortable, you might ask? That’s the question for Borussia Dortmund, freshly crowned with the unofficial title of Herbstmeister – autumn champion – for the first time since 2010-11, when they won the first of two straight Bundesliga titles under Jürgen Klopp.

After the weekend win over Werder Bremen, which took their unbeaten start to the season to 15, Lucien Favre’s team are nine points clear ahead of the Englische Woche, the upcoming midweek programme of fixtures. They are not only looking good but have won the confidence of the market in recent weeks. BVB are [1.67] favourites to take the title in May, with perpetual champions Bayern Munich priced at [2.42], an unimaginable scenario a few short months ago when the season was getting underway.

There’s a lot of logic to this line of thinking. Funnily enough the current points advantage probably isn’t the factor that makes us consider that the Bundesliga worm has turned. It’s more the manner in which Dortmund have flourished and Bayern have floundered. If you had watched this season with no knowledge of what had gone before, you would assume that the current leaders were the old hands and that the reigning champions – aiming for their seventh title in a row, remember – were the ones learning on the job.

Dortmund have played this season perfectly thus far. The performances haven’t always been beyond reproach, as Favre is often keen to point out, but a squad that looked unbalanced and lacking in focus is anything but under their new boss. Their game management is superb. They can ride out tough periods in matches and have the quality off the bench to flip the script or close out as needed – top scorer Paco Alcácer has struck 11 times being mainly used as a substitute, having only started four games, while Jadon Sancho made a series of crucial late cameos in early season before nailing a place in the XI.

Bayern, on the other hand, have lacked their customary dynamism. They have conceded costly late goals to Augsburg, Fortuna Düsseldorf and Freiburg as well as being turned over the closing stages by Dortmund, and arguably don’t carry the same aura as in seasons past. The introduction of Serge Gnabry has helped in recent weeks, as well as Kingsley Coman’s return, but their squad is hardly stacked. Quite how much Niko Kovač – or any other coach – could do differently is open to question.

Understandably, given Bayern’s hegemony, onlookers want proof that this more than just a blip. The suggestion has been that Dortmund need to maintain their nine-point lead ahead of the winter break, but Joshua Kimmich‘s weekend comments after the win at Hannover that Bayern need to keep it to that hinted that the champions’ current trepidation is greater than that of the challengers.

This week is a big one, with the midweek fixtures sending Dortmund to promoted Fortuna, while Bayern host one of the teams with the ambition and aptitude to make things difficult for them, RB Leipzig. By the time BVB have wrapped up for Christmas after Friday night’s visit of second-placed Borussia Mönchengladbach, they can have every hope of counting on their points lead having expanded to double figures, at least temporarily.

Should Favre and company win out, the title really is in their hands. For the neutral, the prospect of there at least being a race for the trophy they call the ‘salad bowl’ is as good a Christmas present as one could ask for.