El Clasico: Why Barcelona will beat Real Madrid and trigger Antonio Conte’s arrival

“With so much negativity surrounding the club at the moment it is surprising Lopetegui has even made it through this week without being let go.”

Barcelona v Reald Madrid
Sunday, 15:15

When Raphael Varane inexplicably let a long ball sail straight past, providing Levante’s Jose Luis Morales with the chance to put his side one up after nine minutes, the reaction on the touchline was deeply revealing.

Julen Lopetegui’s was one of silent resignation, a response he would repeat when his World Cup winning centre-back made a second major mistake to make it 2-0. Having screamed and bellowed from the dugout the week before, Lopetegui, wathcing his side fall to a fourth defeat in five games, didn’t appear to have anything left in him. The end, it seemed, was upon us.

But Lopetegui has survived this week, just. He resides over Real’s worst ever start to a La Liga campaign, has witnessed their longest ever scoreless run (482 minutes), and their longest winless run since 2009. A 2-1 victory in the Champions League against Viktoria Plzen on Tuesday night has offered breif respite, but anything other than victory in El Clasico on Saturday will surely seal his fate.

It’s chaos at the Bernabeu. Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure has had a bigger impact than expected, his absence leaving a gaping hole largely because Real didn’t sign a replacement. The side lack goals generally, but more importantly the forwards seem incapable of linking together in the Portuguese’s absence. His influence was so absolute that Real can’t quite work out where to pass or where to move; they’ve scored just four goals in their last seven games.

Their defensive problems are of even greater concern. Varane aside, Lopetegui has had to deal with multiple injuries at a time of significant tactical upheaval. Dani Carvajal’s injury has left centre-back Nacho to fill in at right-back, while Marcelo has also missed multiple games this season. As Lopetegui looks to implement a dramatically higher defensive line than his predecessor, this is the worst possible time for Real to have such an inconsistent back four.

What started as separate issues in attack and defence have become all-encompassing, and Lopetegui looks increasingly desperate in his attempts to fix things. Toni Kroos, Gareth Bale, and Karim Benzema were left out of the starting 11 against Levante. Vinicius Junior missed out on the squad altogether.

Confidence-stricken and seemingly in free-fall, this is the worst time imaginable to travel to the Camp Nou. League-leaders Barcelona, unbeaten at home this season and on a high after two superb victories against Sevilla and Inter Milan, are heavy favourites to win this one – and condemn Lopetegui.

Any suggestion Barcelona would be significantly weakened without Lionel Messi (injured against Sevilla) was quashed during Wednesday’s 2-0 victory over Inter in the Champions League. The hosts coasted to victory, with Arthur impressing in midfield and Rafinha offering an industrious outlet in Messi’s absence.

Wrestling control of midfield has been difficult this season without Andres Iniesta, and so Arthur’s growing confidence is excellent news for Barca. It also means they should be able to dominate proceedings on Saturday, grinding such a timid Real team into submission.

It is easy to imagine a confident, connected Barcelona side pass their rivals off the park, patiently forcing Real back before picking them off. The visitors’ hesitant back four and goalless front line ought not to worry Ernesto Valverde, not least when Lopetegui – through sheer desperation – has resorted to strange tactical changes.

Defeat will almost certainly confirm Lopetegui’s departure. The Madrid press have already turned on him, and although Sergio Ramos claimed last week that the squad is supportive President Florentino Perez’s opinion is the only one that matters. It is telling, then, that Antonio Conte was contacted by the club a fortnight ago.

The former Chelsea manager, available at 5/4, is the highest profile name currently being linked with the post, and without a current club it would make sense for Perez to look to the Italian. Known for his fastidious coaching methods and acute attention to detail, the intensity of Conte is precisely what Real need to get over their current tactical aimlessness. He might not bring the sort of slick, aesthetic football Perez had been looking for in Lopetegui, but at this point it is results, not style, that matter most.

More importantly, Conte’s preferred 3-4-2-1 formation appears well suited to the current Real squad. Struggling to create from the flanks, using two inside forwards – Isco and Marco Asensio – behind Karim Benzema would be an excellent solution, not least because such a dramatic formation change could shake the team out of their tired, Ronaldo-seeking rhythm.

Playing three at the back is likely to consolidate them short term, giving Sergio Ramos and Varane additional support (and moving Nacho into a natural position), while Conte is likely to be more trustful of young right-back Alvaro Odriozola than Lopetegui. The 22-year-old could be very effective as a wing-back, with additional defensive support behind him.

With so much negativity surrounding the club at the moment it is surprising Lopetegui has even made it through this week without being let go. His touchline demeanour, increasingly unusual tactical decisions, and emerging disrespect from the media all point to a change coming very, very soon. A good result at the Camp Nou is extremely unlikely; defeat will signal the end, before November 1, a market currently available at 10/3.